<!DOCTYPE html><html><head><title></title><style type="text/css">#qt p.qt-MsoNormal{margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri", sans-serif;}
#qt a:link{color:blue;text-decoration-line:underline;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor;text-decoration-thickness:auto;}
#qt a:visited{color:purple;text-decoration-line:underline;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor;text-decoration-thickness:auto;}
#qt p.qt-qt-msonormal1{margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-left:0in;margin-bottom:0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri", sans-serif;}
p.MsoNormal,p.MsoNoSpacing{margin:0}</style></head><body><div style="font-family:Arial;">Nick,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The last sentence simply stated that human activities contribute, almost certainly critically, to the problem. And the only causal factors that we might be able to change are those same human activities.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">What is being stipulated is that humans, individually and collectively, must be the change agents. Other contributory causes like solar cycles, natural climate cycles, etc. cannot change or be changed.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Sorry if the terseness of the original expression led to ambiguity.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">As to trust - yes, I am arrogant enough to believe I can follow an argument and understand the premises / assumptions / and conclusions of the models and reports produced by the experts. No, I do not understand the math or the specialized science. But, if the experts cannot express themselves clearly enough to meet me half-way then they are no better than witch doctors explaining how voudun works.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The other dimension of trust mentioned involves avoiding being manipulated (politicians, rent-seekers, ecological cultists - and they do exist) or defrauded.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Two examples, I am very leery of purchasing carbon offsets for the only way I have to go home once in a while - jet travel. A couple of reasons: I can't see exactly how my money actually does something other than line someone's pockets; and it feels a whole lot like spitting on a forest fire. There must be a better way to spend my funds.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">I don't see the point in supporting politicians like Ocasio-Cortez or even Warren and trying to convince people to give up their cars or quit eating meat in order to reduce the amount of carbon being put into the atmosphere, simply because I have zero belief that it will happen. I do see a greater likelihood that money contributed to research on carbon scrubbers will result in something that will help and will be actually put into play.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div>On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 8:44 PM, thompnickson2@gmail.com wrote:<br></div><blockquote type="cite" id="qt"><div class="qt-WordSection1"><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Please see larding below. <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">My larder is still broken, but it should work well enough.<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Clark University<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193)" class="colour">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193)" class="colour">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><div style="border-right-color:currentcolor;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-left-color:currentcolor;border-left-style:none;border-left-width:medium;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;border-top-color:rgb(225, 225, 225);border-top-style:solid;border-top-width:1pt;padding-top:3pt;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:0in;"><p class="qt-MsoNormal"></p><div style="font-family:Arial;"><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Prof David West<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:19 PM<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><b>To:</b> friam@redfish.com<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions<br></div><p></p></div></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">convict of what?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">premeditated Gaia murder?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">voluntary climate slaughter?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">involuntary climate slaughter?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">reckless endangerment?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">conspiracy to commit climate change?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">accessory after the fact?</span><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i>[NST===>] All of the above. </i></b><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Not trying to be either specious or difficult. I would be ready to vote in favor of human activity contributing the "tipping point factor" but not the cause.</span><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i>[NST===>] As a philosophy camp-follower, I am curious about the distinction, but right now we have a planet to save.</i></b><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">The following is stipulated:</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> - Dr. Kwok, et. al. are correctly reporting phenomena and consequences.</span><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i>[NST===>] Is the whole jury prepared to “convict” on these counts? I am sorry, I should probably stop punning on “convict”, here. I guess the real question is, are these proposition upon which we are all prepared to act?</i></b><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> - The planet is getting warmer.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> - Human activities are a critical component of the cause, and the only factors that might be altered to partially ameliorate the situation.</span><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i>[NST===>] Sorry, but the last part of the above was unclear to me. Is there a missing word?</i></b><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">But,</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">How to I analyze the models (I am unwilling to just take 'The Experts" word on the matter) and evaluate the importance of the various factors such that I can start to plan a course, mostly personal, of action.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">What options are available to remediate the problem. What options might I adopt as an individual? What options must I try to convince the masses to adopt?</span><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">How to I avoid being exploited - by politicians seeking power, by opportunists seeking an income, from fraud like green washing?</span><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i>[NST===>] Dave, it seems there are two threads here. One concerns trust. An expert is just somebody whom we trust to evaluate the data for us when we are incompetent to do so. I sense in what you write here an assumption that you are going to be able to make your personal decisions without having to avail yourself of trust. But surely that’s a dream, right? So the question is, “How are we to deploy trust?</i></b><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i> </i></b><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i>The second thread is the relation of personal responsibility to group action. Now I think that we can stipulate that group action is the only way we are ever going to have a solution to the climate. It’s like what your mom told you about those Poor Starving Armenians. If every mom served to her kid only the amount of spinach that that kid would eat, and shipped all the rest to Armenia, the Armenians would not have starved. But no rational connection exists between my eating my spinach, and any Armenian child being fed. So, in fact, if we actually cared about Poor Starving Armenians, we would have paid to send a boat load of spinach over there, and eaten whatever spinach was left over. In fact, perhaps we should have Federalized the Guard, confiscated all the spinach, and sent it to Armenia. Because even if every kid ate all the spinach on his plate, and every, mom served her kid only what he would eat, still, and all, </i></b><b>THAT WOULD NOT GET THE SPINACE TO ARMENIA. </b><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i> </i></b><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><i>Yet the quakers had a point, and Gandhi had a point, and there is a point to voting. If no individual takes action, then no action will be taken. </i></b><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">davew</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 7:55 PM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<br></p></div><blockquote id="qt-qt" style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">Friammers:<br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">Let’s constitute ourselves as the “climate change jury”. The jury can have a conviction but only if we all agree. Otherwise we remain a hung jury. <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">So, does the Jury agree that with Dr. Kwok of JPL that “ … sea level rise, disappearing sea ice, melting ice sheets and other changes are happening”?<br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">If, so, is the jury prepared to convict human activities for causing those changes?<br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">I am polling the jury.<br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">Nick<br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">Nicholas Thompson<br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">Clark University<br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span class="qt-colour"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193)" class="colour">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></span></a><br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span class="qt-colour"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193)" class="colour">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></span></a><br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">From:</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank Wimberly</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Sent:</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">To:</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a>></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Subject:</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions</span><br></p></div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">From NASA:<br></p><div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/">https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/</a><br></p></div><div><p style="margin-bottom:12pt;" class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">-----------------------------------</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Frank Wimberly</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">My memoir:</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly">https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">My scientific publications:</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2">https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Phone (505) 670-9918</span><br></p></div></div></div></div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><div><div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></p></div><blockquote style="border-top-style:none;border-top-width:medium;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);border-left-style:solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding-top:0in;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5pt;border-top-color:currentcolor;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;"><div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point and there is nothing we can do about it. I have no references.<br></p><div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p></div><div><p style="margin-bottom:12pt;" class="qt-qt-msonormal1">Frank<br></p><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">-----------------------------------</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Frank Wimberly</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">My memoir:</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly">https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">My scientific publications:</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2">https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Phone (505) 670-9918</span><br></p></div></div></div></div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1"> <br></p><div><div><p class="qt-qt-msonormal1">On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></p></div><blockquote style="border-top-style:none;border-top-width:medium;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);border-left-style:solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding-top:0in;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5pt;border-top-color:currentcolor;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;"><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Dave,</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">challenge.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate change</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by what rules of</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that matter. Because,</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would seem to be beyond</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">human reach.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not as</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined to believe</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel I have been</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial melting. But even</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific references to any of</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">am talking about. Ugh!</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: what</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming,</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">is increases in year-to-year climate variability. You can grow rape seed in</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the bands of climate</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">supporting these two crops will move north. But what happens if one year</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">one to the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">your garden: first frost and last frost. The average frost free period in</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short as</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last frost</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It would take a</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">wasteplot. </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the Holocene, is</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the last</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent on that</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to do</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it. The whole</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make more or less the</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place and doing more</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">or less the same thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">would obliterate that possibility. </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global Warming-- we</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, I think I could</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">scare the Living Crap out of you. </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do it,</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's value could be</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">harvested for the long run.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Happy New Year!</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Nick</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Nicholas Thompson</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Clark University</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">-----Original Message-----</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> On Behalf Of Prof David West</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">change.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 degrees</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Fahrenheit by 2020.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">being 3-5 by the year 2020.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end of</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, and</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">simply "circulation" motives.</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the proposed</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">"solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, how</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">chances?</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">davew</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">============================================================</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"><a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">============================================================</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College</span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a></span><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font">FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove</span><br></p></div></blockquote></div></blockquote></div></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">============================================================<br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p></div></blockquote><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial", sans-serif" class="font"> </span><br></p></div></div><div>============================================================<br></div><div>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></div><div>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br></div><div>to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com<br></div><div>archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/<br></div><div>FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove<br></div><div><br></div></blockquote><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div></body></html>