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p.MsoNormal,p.MsoNoSpacing{margin:0}</style></head><body><div style="font-family:Arial;">convict of what?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">premeditated Gaia murder?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">voluntary climate slaughter?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">involuntary climate slaughter?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">reckless endangerment?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">conspiracy to commit climate change?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">accessory after the fact?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Not trying to be either specious or difficult. I would be ready to vote in favor of human activity contributing the "tipping point factor" but not the cause. <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The following is stipulated:<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> - Dr. Kwok, et. al. are correctly reporting phenomena and consequences.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> - The planet is getting warmer.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> - Human activities are a critical component of the cause, and the only factors that might be altered to partially ameliorate the situation.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">But,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">How to I analyze the models (I am unwilling to just take 'The Experts" word on the matter) and evaluate the importance of the various factors such that I can start to plan a course, mostly personal, of action.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">What options are available to remediate the problem. What options might I adopt as an individual? What options must I try to convince the masses to adopt?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">How to I avoid being exploited - by politicians seeking power, by opportunists seeking an income, from fraud like green washing?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div>On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 7:55 PM, thompnickson2@gmail.com wrote:<br></div><blockquote type="cite" id="qt"><div class="qt-WordSection1"><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Friammers:<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Let’s constitute ourselves as the “climate change jury”. The jury can have a conviction but only if we all agree. Otherwise we remain a hung jury. <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">So, does the Jury agree that with Dr. Kwok of JPL that “ … sea level rise, disappearing sea ice, melting ice sheets and other changes are happening”?<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">If, so, is the jury prepared to convict human activities for causing those changes?<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">I am polling the jury.<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Nick<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Clark University<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193)" class="colour">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193)" class="colour">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"></p><div style="font-family:Arial;"><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank Wimberly<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions<br></div><p></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">From NASA:<br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/">https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/</a><br></p></div><div><p style="margin-bottom:12pt;" class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"></p><div style="font-family:Arial;">-----------------------------------<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Frank Wimberly<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">My memoir:<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly">https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">My scientific publications:<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2">https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Phone (505) 670-9918<br></div><p></p></div></div></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></p></div><blockquote style="border-top-color:currentcolor;border-top-style:none;border-top-width:medium;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);border-left-style:solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding-top:0in;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in;"><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point and there is nothing we can do about it. I have no references.<br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p></div><div><p style="margin-bottom:12pt;" class="qt-MsoNormal">Frank<br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"></p><div style="font-family:Arial;">-----------------------------------<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Frank Wimberly<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">My memoir:<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly">https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">My scientific publications:<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2">https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Phone (505) 670-9918<br></div><p></p></div></div></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></p></div><blockquote style="border-top-color:currentcolor;border-top-style:none;border-top-width:medium;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);border-left-style:solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding-top:0in;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in;"><p class="qt-MsoNormal"></p><div style="font-family:Arial;">Dave,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">challenge.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate change<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by what rules of<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that matter. Because,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would seem to be beyond<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">human reach. <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not as<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined to believe<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel I have been<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial melting. But even<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific references to any of<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">am talking about. Ugh!<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: what<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">is increases in year-to-year climate variability. You can grow rape seed in<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the bands of climate<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">supporting these two crops will move north. But what happens if one year<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">one to the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">your garden: first frost and last frost. The average frost free period in<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short as<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last frost<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It would take a<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">wasteplot. <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the Holocene, is<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the last<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent on that<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to do<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it. The whole<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make more or less the<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place and doing more<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">or less the same thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">would obliterate that possibility. <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global Warming-- we<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, I think I could<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">scare the Living Crap out of you. <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do it,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's value could be<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">harvested for the long run. <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Happy New Year!<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Nick <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Nicholas Thompson<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Clark University<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">-----Original Message-----<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> On Behalf Of Prof David West<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">change.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 degrees<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Fahrenheit by 2020.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">being 3-5 by the year 2020.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end of<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, and<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">simply "circulation" motives.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the proposed<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">"solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, how<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">chances?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">============================================================<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a 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