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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText>From the aforementioned article:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I was particularly bemused by the escarpment at the bottom of the diagram: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><img width=306 height=427 style='width:3.1875in;height:4.4444in' id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.png@01D5C0A2.2C66FEC0"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText style='text-indent:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West<br>Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:34 PM<br>To: friam@redfish.com<br>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions</p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>an anonymous source tossed this across my transom a bit ago. Worth sharing I think<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>davew<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 8:29 PM, Prof David West wrote:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> Nick,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> I am not overwhelmingly concerned with steady climate change per se; <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> it is the variability that is the real concern, as you point out. Even <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> more scary are all the side effects as massive migrations that fail to <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> respect existing political boundaries ensue with a concomitant rise in <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> nationalism and all the joys it will bring us.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> davew<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 7:09 PM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>thompnickson2@gmail.com</span></a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Dave,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > them as a challenge.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > climate change and human activity? By what process, with what <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > attitudes, by what rules of engagement, are we likely to arrive at <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > ANY truth of that matter. Because, if we, here, cannot agree on <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > some matters, agreement would seem to be beyond human reach.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > as stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > are not as bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > inclined to believe that in fact Things are worse. The only <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > specific data I feel I have been exposed to recently is ocean <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > surface rise and glacial melting. But even there, I would be hard <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > pressed to match your specific references to any of my own. So, I <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I am talking about. Ugh!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > concern: what we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > term climate warming, is increases in year-to-year climate <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > variability. You can grow rape seed in Canada and maize in the US, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > and as the climate alters, the bands of climate supporting these two <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > crops will move north. But what happens if one year the climate <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from one to <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > productivity of your garden: first frost and last frost. The <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > average frost free period in my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > only a few miles away, it is as short as 90. And while we have <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last frost dates in June <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > and first frost dates in early September. It would take a very <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50 wasteplot.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Holocene, is a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > the last ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > dependent on that anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > too stupid to do agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > not permit it. The whole idea of nation states depends on the idea <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > that one can make more or less the same kind of living by staying <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > more or less in the same place and doing more or less the same <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation would obliterate that possibility.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Warming-- we are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > God, I think I could scare the Living Crap out of you.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > do it, and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > value could be harvested for the long run.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Happy New Year!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Nick<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a> <a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > -----Original Message-----<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>friam-bounces@redfish.com</span></a>> On Behalf Of Prof David West<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>friam@redfish.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > climate change.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > because of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > average of 3 degrees Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > producer, by an average of 6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2020.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > expectations being 3-5 by the year 2020.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > the end of domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > argument for the need to address climate change in the context of <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > badly incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > scientific models, and over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > by those with political or simply "circulation" motives.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > everyone expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > proposed "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > carbon scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > human socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > so, how do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > optimize our chances?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > davew<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > ============================================================<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</span></a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > ============================================================<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> > FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</span></a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> ><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> ============================================================<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> at St. John's College to unsubscribe <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>> FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</span></a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>