<div dir="auto">From NASA:<div dir="auto"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/">https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/</a></div><div dir="auto"><br><br><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature" dir="auto">-----------------------------------<br>Frank Wimberly<br><br>My memoir:<br><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly">https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</a><br><br>My scientific publications:<br><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2">https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</a><br><br>Phone (505) 670-9918</div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto">What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point and there is nothing we can do about it. I have no references.<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Frank<br><br><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature" dir="auto">-----------------------------------<br>Frank Wimberly<br><br>My memoir:<br><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</a><br><br>My scientific publications:<br><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</a><br><br>Phone (505) 670-9918</div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">Dave,<br>
<br>
I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a<br>
challenge.<br>
<br>
What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if<br>
somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate change<br>
and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by what rules of<br>
engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that matter. Because,<br>
if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would seem to be beyond<br>
human reach. <br>
<br>
So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as<br>
stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not as<br>
bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined to believe<br>
that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel I have been<br>
exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial melting. But even<br>
there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific references to any of<br>
my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I<br>
am talking about. Ugh!<br>
<br>
I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: what<br>
we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming,<br>
is increases in year-to-year climate variability. You can grow rape seed in<br>
Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the bands of climate<br>
supporting these two crops will move north. But what happens if one year<br>
the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from<br>
one to the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden<br>
knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of<br>
your garden: first frost and last frost. The average frost free period in<br>
my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short as<br>
90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last frost<br>
dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It would take a<br>
very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from<br>
something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50<br>
wasteplot. <br>
<br>
I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the Holocene, is<br>
a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.<br>
I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the last<br>
ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent on that<br>
anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to do<br>
agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it. The whole<br>
idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make more or less the<br>
same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place and doing more<br>
or less the same thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation<br>
would obliterate that possibility. <br>
<br>
If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global Warming-- we<br>
are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, I think I could<br>
scare the Living Crap out of you. <br>
<br>
The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do it,<br>
and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's value could be<br>
harvested for the long run. <br>
<br>
Happy New Year!<br>
<br>
Nick <br>
<br>
Nicholas Thompson<br>
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br>
Clark University<br>
<a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><br>
<a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> On Behalf Of Prof David West<br>
Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM<br>
To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions<br>
<br>
Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate<br>
change.<br>
<br>
In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because<br>
of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 degrees<br>
Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees<br>
Fahrenheit by 2020.<br>
<br>
The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature<br>
increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations<br>
being 3-5 by the year 2020.<br>
<br>
The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.<br>
<br>
The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end of<br>
domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.<br>
<br>
The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.<br>
<br>
Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,<br>
argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly<br>
incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, and<br>
over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or<br>
simply "circulation" motives.<br>
<br>
In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone<br>
expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?<br>
<br>
Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the proposed<br>
"solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"<br>
<br>
Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon<br>
scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human<br>
socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?<br>
<br>
Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, how<br>
do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our<br>
chances?<br>
<br>
davew<br>
<br>
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