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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Friammers:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Let’s constitute ourselves as the “climate change jury”. The jury can have a conviction but only if we all agree. Otherwise we remain a hung jury. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>So, does the Jury agree that with Dr. Kwok of JPL that “ … sea level rise, disappearing sea ice, melting ice sheets and other changes are happening”?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If, so, is the jury prepared to convict human activities for causing those changes?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I am polling the jury. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank Wimberly<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>From NASA:<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/">https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>-----------------------------------<br>Frank Wimberly<br><br>My memoir:<br><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly">https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</a><br><br>My scientific publications:<br><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2">https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</a><br><br>Phone (505) 670-9918<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><p class=MsoNormal>What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point and there is nothing we can do about it. I have no references.<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>Frank<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>-----------------------------------<br>Frank Wimberly<br><br>My memoir:<br><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly" target="_blank">https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</a><br><br>My scientific publications:<br><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2" target="_blank">https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</a><br><br>Phone (505) 670-9918<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><p class=MsoNormal>Dave,<br><br>I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a<br>challenge.<br><br>What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if<br>somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate change<br>and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by what rules of<br>engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that matter. Because,<br>if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would seem to be beyond<br>human reach. <br><br>So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as<br>stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not as<br>bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined to believe<br>that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel I have been<br>exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial melting. But even<br>there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific references to any of<br>my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I<br>am talking about. Ugh!<br><br>I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: what<br>we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming,<br>is increases in year-to-year climate variability. You can grow rape seed in<br>Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the bands of climate<br>supporting these two crops will move north. But what happens if one year<br>the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from<br>one to the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden<br>knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of<br>your garden: first frost and last frost. The average frost free period in<br>my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short as<br>90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last frost<br>dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It would take a<br>very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from<br>something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50<br>wasteplot. <br><br>I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the Holocene, is<br>a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.<br>I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the last<br>ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent on that<br>anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to do<br>agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it. The whole<br>idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make more or less the<br>same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place and doing more<br>or less the same thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation<br>would obliterate that possibility. <br><br>If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global Warming-- we<br>are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, I think I could<br>scare the Living Crap out of you. <br><br>The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do it,<br>and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's value could be<br>harvested for the long run. <br><br>Happy New Year!<br><br>Nick <br><br>Nicholas Thompson<br>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br>Clark University<br><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><br><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><br><br><br><br>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> On Behalf Of Prof David West<br>Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM<br>To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a><br>Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions<br><br>Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate<br>change.<br><br>In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because<br>of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 degrees<br>Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees<br>Fahrenheit by 2020.<br><br>The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature<br>increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations<br>being 3-5 by the year 2020.<br><br>The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.<br><br>The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end of<br>domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.<br><br>The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.<br><br>Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,<br>argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly<br>incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, and<br>over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or<br>simply "circulation" motives.<br><br>In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone<br>expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?<br><br>Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the proposed<br>"solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"<br><br>Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon<br>scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human<br>socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?<br><br>Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, how<br>do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our<br>chances?<br><br>davew<br><br>============================================================<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe<br><a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<br><br><br>============================================================<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br>to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></blockquote></div></div></body></html>