<!DOCTYPE html><html><head><title></title><style type="text/css">p.MsoNormal,p.MsoNoSpacing{margin:0}</style></head><body><div style="font-family:Arial;">Merle wrote:<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><i>" ... the deep dialogue on global warming that I experience (and sometimes facilitate) happening around the world everywhere but here in the U.S ..."</i><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Echo that<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> -- I am now experiencing two kinds of deep personal shame at the moment. One because everybody but me knows and converses in at least three languages; and second everyone except me seems to have well developed, comprehensive, and implemented plans for making a difference vis a vis global warming.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">BTW the Dutch Supreme Court just ruled that the Government can be sued for not doing enough to ameliorate climate change - a lawsuit similar to the one in the US that the Obama and Trump administration was and is fighting (and so far losing) brought originally by teenagers as a civil rights case.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The Dutch Court used a section of European Union law that makes all the other countries in the Union vulnerable to similar lawsuits and those lawsuits are promptly being filed.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">anecdotal evidence - this is going to be a record warm winter in Amsterdam -- not a drop of snow (there never is much) and only 3 days so far with a high temperature below 0 centigrade, and the worst of those was -2 centigrade and only for about 4 hours.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div>On Thu, Jan 2, 2020, at 7:06 AM, Merle Lefkoff wrote:<br></div><blockquote type="cite" id="qt"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-family:verdana, sans-serif;" class="qt-gmail_default">Steven Smith and Stephen Guerin were two of the complex systems scientists our organization (The Center for Emergent Diplomacy) invited to join a conference we organized in Stockholm a few weeks ago--combining our guys with our Swedish network of scientists and policy wonks working seriously on climate emergency. My idea was that the deep dialogue on global warming that I experience (and sometimes facilitate) happening around the world everywhere but here in the U.S--could really benefit from a Complexity spin. Steve and Stephen are somewhat up-to-date, and you might get some interesting replies from them. <br></div><div style="font-family:verdana, sans-serif;" class="qt-gmail_default"><br></div><div style="font-family:verdana, sans-serif;" class="qt-gmail_default">By the way--all the major government reports, including the UN IPCC reports, are heavily censored because of how the research is funded. There is tremendous pressure to present only best-case scenarios-- for obvious corporate reasons. Also, if any of you think the disaster scenarios are "over-hyped", you really don't have a clue. Yes, the future is unprestateable, but many parts of the world are already experiencing the future of global warming in the present, like a good science fiction story. And there is a rapidly growing scientific consensus about how quickly the window is closing on any attempts to contain the risk to human survival on a much-altered planet.<br></div></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div class="qt-gmail_quote"><div class="qt-gmail_attr" dir="ltr">On Wed, Jan 1, 2020 at 8:45 AM Prof David West <<a href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm">profwest@fastmail.fm</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote style="margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);padding-left:1ex;" class="qt-gmail_quote"><div style="font-family:Arial;">Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate change.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 degrees Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2020.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations being 3-5 by the year 2020.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end of domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate, argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, and over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or simply "circulation" motives.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the proposed "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, how do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our chances?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> davew<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> ============================================================<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> to unsubscribe <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> archives back to 2003: <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"> FRIAM-COMIC <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<br></div></blockquote></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">-- <br></div><div class="qt-gmail_signature" dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org">emergentdiplomacy.org</a><br></div></div><div>Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<br></div><div><br></div><div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><a href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">mobile: (303) 859-5609<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">skype: merle.lelfkoff2<br></div></div><div>twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div>============================================================<br></div><div>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></div><div>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br></div><div>to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com<br></div><div>archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/<br></div><div>FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove<br></div><div><br></div></blockquote><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div></body></html>