<div dir="auto">RE Dave West: So perhaps "existing political boundaries" are no longer a viable or rational concept? (But I have yet to find a potential alternative.)<div dir="auto">Tom Johnson </div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Jan 2, 2020, 8:18 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">Well we certainly agree on that. <br>
<br>
So should we put it before the Jury? <br>
<br>
N<br>
<br>
Nicholas Thompson<br>
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br>
Clark University<br>
<a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><br>
<a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> On Behalf Of Prof David West<br>
Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:30 PM<br>
To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions<br>
<br>
Nick,<br>
<br>
I am not overwhelmingly concerned with steady climate change per se; it is<br>
the variability that is the real concern, as you point out. Even more scary<br>
are all the side effects as massive migrations that fail to respect existing<br>
political boundaries ensue with a concomitant rise in nationalism and all<br>
the joys it will bring us.<br>
<br>
davew<br>
<br>
<br>
On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 7:09 PM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<br>
> Dave,<br>
> <br>
> I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them <br>
> as a challenge.<br>
> <br>
> What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if <br>
> somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate <br>
> change and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by <br>
> what rules of engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that <br>
> matter. Because, if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement <br>
> would seem to be beyond human reach.<br>
> <br>
> So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as <br>
> stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not <br>
> as bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined to <br>
> believe that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel <br>
> I have been exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial <br>
> melting. But even there, I would be hard pressed to match your <br>
> specific references to any of my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, <br>
> I disagree, but I don't know what I am talking about. Ugh!<br>
> <br>
> I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: <br>
> what we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term <br>
> climate warming, is increases in year-to-year climate variability. <br>
> You can grow rape seed in Canada and maize in the US, and as the <br>
> climate alters, the bands of climate supporting these two crops will <br>
> move north. But what happens if one year the climate demands one crop <br>
> and the next the other? And the switch from one to the other is <br>
> entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden knows that only <br>
> two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of your garden: <br>
> first frost and last frost. The average frost free period in my <br>
> garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short <br>
> as 90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had <br>
> last frost dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It <br>
> would take a very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn <br>
> my garden from something that could support life for a year in New England<br>
into a 30 x 50 wasteplot.<br>
> <br>
> I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the <br>
> Holocene, is a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in<br>
climate VARIABILITY.<br>
> I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the <br>
> last ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent <br>
> on that anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to <br>
> do agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it. <br>
> The whole idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make <br>
> more or less the same kind of living by staying more or less in the <br>
> same place and doing more or less the same thing. A return to <br>
> Pleistocene year-to-year variation would obliterate that possibility.<br>
> <br>
> If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global <br>
> Warming-- we are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by <br>
> God, I think I could scare the Living Crap out of you.<br>
> <br>
> The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do <br>
> it, and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's <br>
> value could be harvested for the long run.<br>
> <br>
> Happy New Year!<br>
> <br>
> Nick<br>
> <br>
> Nicholas Thompson<br>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University <br>
> <a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a> <a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><br>
> <br>
> <br>
> <br>
> -----Original Message-----<br>
> From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> On Behalf Of Prof David West<br>
> Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM<br>
> To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
> Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions<br>
> <br>
> Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate<br>
> change.<br>
> <br>
> In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because<br>
> of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3<br>
degrees<br>
> Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6<br>
degrees<br>
> Fahrenheit by 2020.<br>
> <br>
> The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature<br>
> increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations<br>
> being 3-5 by the year 2020.<br>
> <br>
> The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.<br>
> <br>
> The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end<br>
of<br>
> domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.<br>
> <br>
> The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.<br>
> <br>
> Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,<br>
> argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly<br>
> incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models,<br>
and<br>
> over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or<br>
> simply "circulation" motives.<br>
> <br>
> In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone<br>
> expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?<br>
> <br>
> Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the<br>
proposed<br>
> "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"<br>
> <br>
> Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon<br>
> scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human<br>
> socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?<br>
> <br>
> Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so,<br>
how<br>
> do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our<br>
> chances?<br>
> <br>
> davew<br>
> <br>
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</blockquote></div>