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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Hi Merle, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>FWIW, not a philosopher; a psychologist ethologist. And also an organic gardener, by the way, who began his career as such by reading Louis Bromfield. So, Yes, let’s worry about soil life, too!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The manner in which Merle snipped my note blunted it’s main point. The Holocene – roughly the last 12,000 years? – is marked by a dramatic decrease in year-to-year climate variability which brought the Pleistocene to an end. This made sedentary human life possible and civilization as we know it, with its high concentrations of human activity and stunning population increases. So far as I know, we don’t know what factors precipitated the Holocene, so we don’t know what factors might terminate it. In short, the peaceful climate regimen in which we live and on which we depend is a bloody miracle. This is what drives me nuts about the Gaia Hypothesis. Sure, think of the biosphere as an organism, but don’t think of it as an organism that EVER had any interest in sustaining human life. Or any life, for that matter, other than its own. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>But we all need to beware of Environment Derangement Syndrome, a state of mind in which we do nothing because it’s all so overwhelming. What we all agree on, is that we cannot take things as they are for granted. You work on your insects, Merle can work on Global Warming, and I can sweat climate variability, and perhaps, if we all push really hard, we might, just MIGHT, just POSSIBLY, get another 12,000 years. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Merle Lefkoff<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, January 5, 2020 9:27 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> [FRIAM] Fwd: Question from Merle<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'>Nick, I presented your question about variability to our close Swedish colleague, Lars Larsson. Here is his response below.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Lars Larsson</span></strong> <<a href="mailto:perslars@hotmail.com">perslars@hotmail.com</a>><br>Date: Sun, Jan 5, 2020 at 6:10 AM<br>Subject: Sv: Question from Merle<br>To: Merle Lefkoff <<a href="mailto:merlelefkoff@gmail.com">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a>><o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Hej Merle,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>All farming-land need a rotation of different crops. Some times perennial plants to increase the nitrogen and some time other crops<span style='background:white'>.</span><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>So it means that we need a rotation program (3-5 year) and this different plant must stand the climate change.</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>A bigger problem is the insects. We need them for this rotation. I have been working with my local food program since we met in Stockholm.</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>I talk to fisher/hunters and they told me that this year the fishing was zero. So I talk to next village and next village and next village and everywhere the same problem.</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>So I find some experts (entomologist) of insects and they told me that the situation i</span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black;background:white'>s </span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>catastrophic. The insect are more or less extinct. In this clean country?</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>We <u>cant focus on climate change</u>, it is only a part of the problem. Just now, just here it is not a problem at all. The problem with lack of insects is worse.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>The entomologists told me the they have warn the government years ago. The problem is the management of the forests and the pesticides from the farming.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>This is two sensitive areas for the government so they did not listen. If the scientist was to </span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>tell about it</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> the</span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>y</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> lost their titles so they could not tell the truth about it.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>And it is still the same situation.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>So in my topsoil improvement program I involve the insects and now it is emergency. We have 2-3 years to help them to survival. <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>If the insects will be extinct the climate doesn't matter we can't survival. It takes millions of years to repair. Climate can be adjusted i 100 year if we want.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Kram<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Lars<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><hr size=2 width="98%" align=center></div><div id="m_7955119294717413576divRplyFwdMsg"><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='color:black'>Från:</span></b><span style='color:black'> Merle Lefkoff <<a href="mailto:merlelefkoff@gmail.com" target="_blank">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a>><br><b>Skickat:</b> den 5 januari 2020 07:54<br><b>Till:</b> Lars Larsson <<a href="mailto:perslars@hotmail.com" target="_blank">perslars@hotmail.com</a>><br><b>Ämne:</b> Question from Merle</span> <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'>A member of the complexity group here is a retired Philosophy professor. I've got them all thinking about climate now, and here is what Nick wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>"I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: What we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming, is increases in year-to-year climate variability. </span><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>You can grow rape seed in Canada and maize in the US, and as the </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><br></span><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'> climate alters, the bands of climate supporting these two crops will </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><br></span><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'> move north. But what happens if one year the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from one to the other is entirely unpredictable.</span><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>LARS--is this a good idea? Do you have data on this?</span><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal>-- <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br><a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org" target="_blank">emergentdiplomacy.org</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com" target="_blank">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br>mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>skype: merle.lelfkoff2<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><br clear=all><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal>-- <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br><a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org" target="_blank">emergentdiplomacy.org</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com" target="_blank">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br>mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>skype: merle.lelfkoff2<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>