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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>This the graph that terrifies me: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><img width=391 height=171 style='width:4.0694in;height:1.7847in' id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.png@01D5C3BE.DBCFAA00"><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Merle Lefkoff<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, January 5, 2020 9:27 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> [FRIAM] Fwd: Question from Merle<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'>Nick, I presented your question about variability to our close Swedish colleague, Lars Larsson. Here is his response below.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>Lars Larsson</span></strong> <<a href="mailto:perslars@hotmail.com">perslars@hotmail.com</a>><br>Date: Sun, Jan 5, 2020 at 6:10 AM<br>Subject: Sv: Question from Merle<br>To: Merle Lefkoff <<a href="mailto:merlelefkoff@gmail.com">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a>><o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Hej Merle,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>All farming-land need a rotation of different crops. Some times perennial plants to increase the nitrogen and some time other crops<span style='background:white'>.</span><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>So it means that we need a rotation program (3-5 year) and this different plant must stand the climate change.</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>A bigger problem is the insects. We need them for this rotation. I have been working with my local food program since we met in Stockholm.</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>I talk to fisher/hunters and they told me that this year the fishing was zero. So I talk to next village and next village and next village and everywhere the same problem.</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>So I find some experts (entomologist) of insects and they told me that the situation i</span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black;background:white'>s </span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;background:white'>catastrophic. The insect are more or less extinct. In this clean country?</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>We <u>cant focus on climate change</u>, it is only a part of the problem. Just now, just here it is not a problem at all. The problem with lack of insects is worse.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>The entomologists told me the they have warn the government years ago. The problem is the management of the forests and the pesticides from the farming.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>This is two sensitive areas for the government so they did not listen. If the scientist was to </span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>tell about it</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> the</span><span class=gmaildefault><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>y</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> lost their titles so they could not tell the truth about it.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>And it is still the same situation.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>So in my topsoil improvement program I involve the insects and now it is emergency. We have 2-3 years to help them to survival. <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>If the insects will be extinct the climate doesn't matter we can't survival. It takes millions of years to repair. Climate can be adjusted i 100 year if we want.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Kram<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Lars<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><hr size=2 width="98%" align=center></div><div id="m_7955119294717413576divRplyFwdMsg"><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='color:black'>Från:</span></b><span style='color:black'> Merle Lefkoff <<a href="mailto:merlelefkoff@gmail.com" target="_blank">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a>><br><b>Skickat:</b> den 5 januari 2020 07:54<br><b>Till:</b> Lars Larsson <<a href="mailto:perslars@hotmail.com" target="_blank">perslars@hotmail.com</a>><br><b>Ämne:</b> Question from Merle</span> <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'>A member of the complexity group here is a retired Philosophy professor. I've got them all thinking about climate now, and here is what Nick wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>"I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: What we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming, is increases in year-to-year climate variability. </span><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>You can grow rape seed in Canada and maize in the US, and as the </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><br></span><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'> climate alters, the bands of climate supporting these two crops will </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><br></span><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'> move north. But what happens if one year the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from one to the other is entirely unpredictable.</span><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>LARS--is this a good idea? Do you have data on this?</span><span style='font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal>-- <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br><a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org" target="_blank">emergentdiplomacy.org</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com" target="_blank">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br>mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>skype: merle.lelfkoff2<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><br clear=all><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal>-- <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br><a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org" target="_blank">emergentdiplomacy.org</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com" target="_blank">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br>mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>skype: merle.lelfkoff2<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>