<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
</head>
<body>
<p><br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Oh... also an interesting report on the
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as canonical scenarios to be
used with these models.<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:8217e8c9-fcec-64d6-5881-3f6ce4d5ab4a@swcp.com">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<p>Eric -</p>
<p>Great back-of-envelop summary/speculation and I second your
desire for someone well-steeped in these modeling/assessment
issues.<br>
</p>
<p>We (speaking out of school for Merle, Stephen, and the team
that went to and met with the Stockholm Team last month) would
love to find someone with that depth/breadth of knowledge in
this group (or one degree away). I am remiss/slow in following
up with the *one* member of the Stockholm Resilience Center I
met there who *might* either have this level of depth/breadth or
know someone who does.<br>
</p>
<p>I am trying hard to come up to speed, but the number of models
and types of approaches and hidden
agendas/constraints/assumptions are still overwhelming. The
IPCC seems to be the *best* official source that is most broadly
accepted, etc. but tends to be one or two levels of detail
above the kinds of questions I have (and you are asking here). <br>
</p>
<p>I am interested in something much broader than just the
geo/bio/cryo/hydro/aero-science of it all, though THAT is huge
and complicated enough as it is. The Integrated Assessment
Models that join this *physical* domain with the
socio(political)economic domain seems most well discussed by the
work of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) lead by
LLNL and tied into the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
who are providing some of the "heavy lifting" for the IPCC's
next (VI) report due in 2021.<br>
</p>
<p> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project</a></p>
<p> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.wcrp-climate.org/" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.wcrp-climate.org/</a><br>
</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 1/19/20 2:00 PM, David Eric Smith
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:0B6B5BA9-E6DF-4AD6-9846-04712373D870@santafe.edu">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;
charset=UTF-8">
Would be interesting to know what the buffers are, that weren’t
in that run of models.
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Temperatures are lower than forecast, but
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet melting rates are higher.
They seem like small land areas, and the ice volume small,
but specific heat of melting is large per volume compared to
specific heat of air, and the atmosphere, while thick compared
to ice, is only 10-20 km high (to the top of the troposphere;
stratosphere up to maybe 50km at much-reduced density and much
increased transparency because it is dry). So troposphere
maybe 20-40 times the depth of the west antarctic ice sheet,
though only a lowermost layer of that is melting, and I don’t
know the thickness per unit time lost. Specific heat of dry
air is about 1 J/gK, while heat of melting of clean water is
334 J/g. Ice is about 1000 times as dense as air, so one has
a volume ratio of about 3x10^5 to play with, per degree
Kelvin. </div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Greenland plus Antarctica (wikipedia-level area
estimates) are about 3% of earth surface area. So if one
divided by a column density ratio of 30:1 and multiplied by an
area ratio of 0.03, one has about 1/1000. So a full melt of
Greenland and Antarctic ice could buffer about 300K of
atmospheric temperature change at a dimensional-analysis-level
estimate. If the full rate of melting were mis-estimated by a
factor that extends the ice sheet lifetimes by 600 years, that
would give about 1/2 degree per year buffering capacity.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">I don’t know what is or isn’t in the models up to
2014, because I haven’t followed these things closely, but
unless what I wrote above is nonsense, it seems that a
mis-estimate of just continental ice sheet melting is not
wildly out of scale to account for unmodeled buffers.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">One also wants to take into account arctic se ice,
which if I really is on a faster melting schedule then some
models predicted, though I don’t have even a good
impressionistic memory of what I have heard on that.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">And of course there is the heat-transport rate of
cyclonic storms, from sea surface to the top of the
troposphere, where radiative transfer through the stratosphere
will be much faster than that from the interior of the
troposphere or the surface. My understanding is that
predicting frequency and intensity of typhoons etc. is still
something of a challenge area, but I don’t know if that
affects parameters used in GCM and heat-transfer models enough
to count as an un-modeled buffer.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Would be great if there is somebody on this list
who has a comprehensive enough knowledge of the state of this
literature to give the kind of survey of the state of the art
in response to questions, that is hard to get from broadcast.
Good as it is, broadcast just contains whatever it contains,
and doesn’t have the responsiveness of a person who can hear a
question in context and then recruit knowledge for a matched
reply.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Eric</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
<div><br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div class="">On Jan 20, 2020, at 1:55 AM, Pieter
Steenekamp <<a
href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>>
wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<div class="">
<div dir="ltr" class="">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0pt 0pt
0.0001pt;font-family:Calibri"> </p>
<div style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; font-family:
Calibri;" class="">Fortunately it seems that the
earth is warming much slower than what the models
predicted. So just maybe we have hope?</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0pt 0pt
0.0001pt;font-family:Calibri"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0pt 0pt
0.0001pt;font-family:Calibri"> </p>
<div class=""><span id="cid:ii_k5l9g1k70"><image.png></span><br
class="">
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0pt 0pt
0.0001pt;font-family:Calibri"> </p>
<div style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; font-family:
Calibri;" class=""><a
href="https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/"
class="" moz-do-not-send="true"><u class=""><span
class="gmail-15"
style="font-family:SimSun;color:rgb(0,0,255);font-size:12pt">https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/</span></u></a></div>
</div>
<br class="">
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, 18 Jan 2020
at 22:36, Jochen Fromm <<a
href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:<br class="">
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="auto" class="">
<div dir="auto" class="">Trump's channel Fox News
is owned by the Australian Murdoch family. Can
two families ruin the entire planet? Trump in
America and Murdoch in Australia are creating
tremendous damage. If Climate Change leads to an
uninhabitable world, as David Wallace-Wells
describes in his book, these two families
certainly contributed to it</div>
<a
href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07GVPFH5V/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1"
target="_blank" class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07GVPFH5V/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1</a>
<div dir="auto" class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div dir="auto" class="">The Washington Post
writes:</div>
<div dir="auto" class="">"When we think of
industries that must change to prevent further
global warming, we tend to imagine
carbon-intensive concerns such as mining,
aviation and energy production. But the Murdoch
media and the rest of the climate denialist
industry will also need a transition plan. They
do not have long to implement it."</div>
<div dir="auto" class=""><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/16/australias-catastrophic-fires-are-moment-reckoning-murdochs-media-empire/"
target="_blank" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/16/australias-catastrophic-fires-are-moment-reckoning-murdochs-media-empire/</a></div>
<div dir="auto" class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div dir="auto" class="">-Jochen</div>
<div dir="auto" class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div dir="auto" class=""><br class="">
</div>
</div>
============================================================<br class="">
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br class="">
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br
class="">
to unsubscribe <a
href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"
rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br
class="">
archives back to 2003: <a
href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"
rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br
class="">
FRIAM-COMIC <a
href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"
rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
by Dr. Strangelove<br class="">
</blockquote>
</div>
============================================================<br class="">
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br class="">
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br
class="">
to unsubscribe <a
href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"
class="" moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br
class="">
archives back to 2003: <a
href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br
class="">
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"
class="" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
by Dr. Strangelove<br class="">
</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br class="">
</div>
<br>
<fieldset class="mimeAttachmentHeader"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
archives back to 2003: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove
</pre>
</blockquote>
<br>
<fieldset class="mimeAttachmentHeader"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
archives back to 2003: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove
</pre>
</blockquote>
</body>
</html>