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<p>Eric -</p>
<p>Great back-of-envelop summary/speculation and I second your
desire for someone well-steeped in these modeling/assessment
issues.<br>
</p>
<p>We (speaking out of school for Merle, Stephen, and the team that
went to and met with the Stockholm Team last month) would love to
find someone with that depth/breadth of knowledge in this group
(or one degree away). I am remiss/slow in following up with the
*one* member of the Stockholm Resilience Center I met there who
*might* either have this level of depth/breadth or know someone
who does.<br>
</p>
<p>I am trying hard to come up to speed, but the number of models
and types of approaches and hidden agendas/constraints/assumptions
are still overwhelming. The IPCC seems to be the *best* official
source that is most broadly accepted, etc. but tends to be one or
two levels of detail above the kinds of questions I have (and you
are asking here). <br>
</p>
<p>I am interested in something much broader than just the
geo/bio/cryo/hydro/aero-science of it all, though THAT is huge and
complicated enough as it is. The Integrated Assessment Models
that join this *physical* domain with the socio(political)economic
domain seems most well discussed by the work of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP) lead by LLNL and tied into the
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) who are providing some of
the "heavy lifting" for the IPCC's next (VI) report due in 2021.<br>
</p>
<p>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project</a></p>
<p> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.wcrp-climate.org/">https://www.wcrp-climate.org/</a><br>
</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 1/19/20 2:00 PM, David Eric Smith
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:0B6B5BA9-E6DF-4AD6-9846-04712373D870@santafe.edu">
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Would be interesting to know what the buffers are, that weren’t in
that run of models.
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Temperatures are lower than forecast, but Greenland
and Antarctic ice sheet melting rates are higher. They seem
like small land areas, and the ice volume small, but specific
heat of melting is large per volume compared to specific heat of
air, and the atmosphere, while thick compared to ice, is only
10-20 km high (to the top of the troposphere; stratosphere up to
maybe 50km at much-reduced density and much increased
transparency because it is dry). So troposphere maybe 20-40
times the depth of the west antarctic ice sheet, though only a
lowermost layer of that is melting, and I don’t know the
thickness per unit time lost. Specific heat of dry air is about
1 J/gK, while heat of melting of clean water is 334 J/g. Ice is
about 1000 times as dense as air, so one has a volume ratio of
about 3x10^5 to play with, per degree Kelvin. </div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Greenland plus Antarctica (wikipedia-level area
estimates) are about 3% of earth surface area. So if one
divided by a column density ratio of 30:1 and multiplied by an
area ratio of 0.03, one has about 1/1000. So a full melt of
Greenland and Antarctic ice could buffer about 300K of
atmospheric temperature change at a dimensional-analysis-level
estimate. If the full rate of melting were mis-estimated by a
factor that extends the ice sheet lifetimes by 600 years, that
would give about 1/2 degree per year buffering capacity.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">I don’t know what is or isn’t in the models up to
2014, because I haven’t followed these things closely, but
unless what I wrote above is nonsense, it seems that a
mis-estimate of just continental ice sheet melting is not wildly
out of scale to account for unmodeled buffers.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">One also wants to take into account arctic se ice,
which if I really is on a faster melting schedule then some
models predicted, though I don’t have even a good
impressionistic memory of what I have heard on that.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">And of course there is the heat-transport rate of
cyclonic storms, from sea surface to the top of the troposphere,
where radiative transfer through the stratosphere will be much
faster than that from the interior of the troposphere or the
surface. My understanding is that predicting frequency and
intensity of typhoons etc. is still something of a challenge
area, but I don’t know if that affects parameters used in GCM
and heat-transfer models enough to count as an un-modeled
buffer.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Would be great if there is somebody on this list who
has a comprehensive enough knowledge of the state of this
literature to give the kind of survey of the state of the art in
response to questions, that is hard to get from broadcast. Good
as it is, broadcast just contains whatever it contains, and
doesn’t have the responsiveness of a person who can hear a
question in context and then recruit knowledge for a matched
reply.</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class="">Eric</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div class=""><br class="">
<div><br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div class="">On Jan 20, 2020, at 1:55 AM, Pieter Steenekamp
<<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>>
wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<div class="">
<div dir="ltr" class="">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0pt 0pt
0.0001pt;font-family:Calibri"> </p>
<div style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; font-family:
Calibri;" class="">Fortunately it seems that the earth
is warming much slower than what the models predicted.
So just maybe we have hope?</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0pt 0pt
0.0001pt;font-family:Calibri"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0pt 0pt
0.0001pt;font-family:Calibri"> </p>
<div class=""><span id="cid:ii_k5l9g1k70"><image.png></span><br
class="">
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0pt 0pt
0.0001pt;font-family:Calibri"> </p>
<div style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0.0001pt; font-family:
Calibri;" class=""><a
href="https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/"
class="" moz-do-not-send="true"><u class=""><span
class="gmail-15"
style="font-family:SimSun;color:rgb(0,0,255);font-size:12pt">https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/</span></u></a></div>
</div>
<br class="">
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, 18 Jan 2020 at
22:36, Jochen Fromm <<a
href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net" class=""
moz-do-not-send="true">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:<br class="">
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="auto" class="">
<div dir="auto" class="">Trump's channel Fox News is
owned by the Australian Murdoch family. Can two
families ruin the entire planet? Trump in America
and Murdoch in Australia are creating tremendous
damage. If Climate Change leads to an
uninhabitable world, as David Wallace-Wells
describes in his book, these two families
certainly contributed to it</div>
<a
href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07GVPFH5V/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1"
target="_blank" class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07GVPFH5V/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1</a>
<div dir="auto" class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div dir="auto" class="">The Washington Post writes:</div>
<div dir="auto" class="">"When we think of
industries that must change to prevent further
global warming, we tend to imagine
carbon-intensive concerns such as mining, aviation
and energy production. But the Murdoch media and
the rest of the climate denialist industry will
also need a transition plan. They do not have long
to implement it."</div>
<div dir="auto" class=""><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/16/australias-catastrophic-fires-are-moment-reckoning-murdochs-media-empire/"
target="_blank" class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/16/australias-catastrophic-fires-are-moment-reckoning-murdochs-media-empire/</a></div>
<div dir="auto" class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div dir="auto" class="">-Jochen</div>
<div dir="auto" class=""><br class="">
</div>
<div dir="auto" class=""><br class="">
</div>
</div>
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