<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto">the problem with the small plot of land approach<div><br><div>1. what to do in the winter?</div><div>2. given the number Of people who will try it, what about the supplier seeds? Are there enough?<br><br><div dir="ltr">doug</div><div dir="ltr"><br><blockquote type="cite">On Jan 21, 2020, at 11:20 AM, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff@gmail.com> wrote:<br><br></blockquote></div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Thank you, Jochen. Excellent. Pieter: We can't predict what will happen or when or how fast. We only have probability analysis. But it's happening now. The future is here. </div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">My advice when I give talks on climate emergency is make sure you have a small piece of empty land, fix the topsoil, learn how to grow food, learn how to store food, meditate, and try to enjoy an altered planet.</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Jan 21, 2020 at 1:23 AM Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">Jochen,<div><br></div><div>How confident are you about the predictions the climate scientists make?</div><div><br></div><div>When I delve into the details of the IPCC reports I find that there are significant uncertainties. But when popular media report the facts I get the impression that "the science is settled" . Sure, I agree that there are aspects of the science that I would argue "is settled", but there are very crucial aspects with significant uncertainties. For example, the latest available figures from the IPCC reports give the climate sensitivity as within the range of 1.5 to 4.5 (that is the expected increase in global temperatures per doubling of CO2. This is according to the models. Empirical data studies show it to be close to the lower end. If this is true, then the IPCC figures are correct and we don't have to be concerned about CO2 causing serious harm. </div><div><br></div><div>Is it good enough to say that because CO2 causes the temperature to increase, the temperature has increased the last 100 years or so, the CO2 is increasing because of humans burning fossil fuels, therefore if we don't stop burning fossil fuels we are going to have huge disasters? Is it not good practice to ask how much and what other factors contribute? </div><div><br></div><div>By the way, I also don't have a high opinion of Trump. <br></div><div><br></div><div>Pieter</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, 21 Jan 2020 at 01:21, Jochen Fromm <<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net" target="_blank">jofr@cas-group.net</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto"><div dir="auto">10 years ago we had 10 degrees below zero in Berlin and several days of snow. This winter we had not a single day of snow. Not a single one. The arctic is melting, Australia and California are burning like never before and Brasil is destroying the last pieces of its precious rain forest.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">And the worst thing is that it will be every year like this one, only worse. Billions of people are burning in a few decades the fossil fuels produced over millions of years. You don't need to be an expert to see that this really can not be reversed in a few months.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I could even imagine that we burn so much fossil fuels that there will be regions where we have a lack of Oxygen. Earth was like this many million years ago. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">And the most powerful country of the world has a president who ignores all of it and considers himself a very stable genius. Sean Hannity gets 36 Million Dollar (!) a year from Fox News to praise him. Isn't it depressing? </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">-Jochen</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div><br></div><div style="font-size:100%;color:rgb(0,0,0)" dir="auto"><div>-------- Original message --------</div><div>From: Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" target="_blank">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>> </div><div>Date: 1/20/20 22:59 (GMT+01:00) </div><div>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>> </div><div>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump </div><div><br></div></div><div dir="ltr">Eric asked for someone with a comprehensive knowledge of climate science and I do not put my name in the hat. But I do have some comprehension of the basic science and the big picture.<br>But like all humans I have biases and very far from having a comprehensive knowledge of the literature nor the science. In my professional career as an engineer I have done a lot of engineering modeling and in my private time I am enthusiastic about emergence and have played with agent based models to simulate complex systems. <br><br>So, on the topic under discussion, there are issues that I reckon should not be questioned (“the science is settled”):<br>a) On decades time scales the earth has warmed, the average sea level has increased and the average CO2 in the atmosphere increased<br>b) There are direct and indirect causal links between CO2 and temperature<br>c) The direct causal link is not sufficiently strong to be worried about<br>d) It’s the indirect link that’s the source of the concerns. CO2 causes the temperature to rise a little. This causes more evaporation and subsequently more clouds. Some clouds cause cooling (negative feedback) and some warming (positive feedback).<br>e) There are other factors than CO2 also affecting the temperature.<br><br>Then there are issues that IMO are not settled.:<br>I argue an issue that cuts to the very heart of the current climate change debate is the strength of feedbacks. If the positive feedback is strong and the negative feedback weak then Houston we have a problem we should listen to Greta. If not, Trump was probably right in withdrawing from Paris.<br><div><br></div><div>Pieter</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, 19 Jan 2020 at 23:13, David Eric Smith <<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu" target="_blank">desmith@santafe.edu</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Sorry…<br>
<br>
My own typos are bad enough, but usually comprehensible. But when the damned computer helpfully comes in and substitutes the word it thinks I must have meant, the result is a true obscurity:<br>
<br>
> One also wants to take into account arctic se ice, which if I really is on a faster melting schedule then some models predicted, though I don’t have even a good impressionistic memory of what I have heard on that.<br>
<br>
One also wants to take into account arctic _sea_ ice, which if I _remember_ is on ….<br>
<br>
Eric<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
============================================================<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br>
to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/<br>
FRIAM-COMIC</a> <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<br>
</blockquote></div>
</div>============================================================<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br>
to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<br>
</blockquote></div>
============================================================<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br>
to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<br>
</blockquote></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div>Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br><a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org" target="_blank">emergentdiplomacy.org</a></div><div>Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA</div><div></div><div><a href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com" target="_blank">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br>mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>skype: merle.lelfkoff2<br></div><div>twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<span>============================================================</span><br><span>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</span><br><span>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College</span><br><span>to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</span><br><span>archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</span><br><span>FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove</span><br></div></blockquote></div></div></body></html>