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<p>Too much (IMO) of our contemporary (public and private?)
discourse seems to be high on confirmation bias. </p>
<p>The ensemble of possible futures (trajectories through?) has
exploded (see Kauffman's "Adjacent Possible") both with the growth
of technological complexity and with the shift in distribution of
communication "distances" (both geospatial and network). <br>
</p>
<p>Confirmation bias I will speculate (if not quite assert) is an
important self-protective skill (where self is the individual and
possibly collective ego). <br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p><i>See, see! I Tole ya! <br>
</i></p>
<p><i>(</i>hell in a handbasket OR heaven on a handcart, you pick<i>)</i></p>
</blockquote>
<p>There is a reason it exists and is so ubiquitous, but that
doesn't mean it isn't (yet another) delusion and likely harmful
in the long run. It might be a good way to "get you through the
day" but I contend *really sucks* as a long-term thinking
strategy.</p>
<p>I appreciate Pinker offering us up lots of anecdotes/factoids and
a hopeful narrative to string them together. I think they are a
nice tonic (though not antidote) for <i>murky dismal</i> thinking
(<i>awfulizing</i> can be it's own self-fulfilling thing)... but
at least one place he goes too far is to assume that HIS measures
of "a good life" are actually universal and complete. They
probably do apply to him and to most/many on this list
(middle-class +/- professionals far enough into their
careers/lives to have some assets or at least momentum).<br>
</p>
<p>Stable Genius in Chief insists that the "roaring economy" he's
managed to pump up on massive environmental and social
deregulation steroids and government-debt fueled injections (via
huge tax cuts for both wealthy and corporate players in the stock
market) adds to everyone's quality of life. Those without much if
any stake in the stock market have to depend on the lower
unemployment rates that go with a "boom" which is *some* relief,
but if the bulk of the increased employment is in low-pay,
no-benefit jobs, it is at best a minor salve for some, and a
double-down for others (like the company store in the company town
raising prices but increasing everyone's credit limit and offering
a wider variety of luxury items most cant really afford in the
first place?).</p>
<p>Much if not all of the first-world (at least Anglophonic ) seems
to be on the same trip... <br>
</p>
<p>To balance my own "awfulizing", I have some confidence in
anecdotal heuristics like: "darkest before dawn" ; "has to get
worse before it gets better" ; "gotta hit bottom before you bounce
back up". Our collective will/consciousness/awareness/??? IS a
distribution (the other subthread here of interest) and I wonder
at whether it is more usefully characterized as an integral or a
superposition?</p>
<p>Mumble, <br>
</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAPerSOK=W-47oCiE6mjOyEWdieA025uPpfh7oJiZtX5QQFvRAA@mail.gmail.com">
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<div dir="ltr">So much trouble?<br>
<br>
I'm an enthusiastic supporter of Steven Pinker's, I quote from
<a
href="https://www.amazon.com/Enlightenment-Now-Science-Humanism-Progress/dp/0525427570"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.amazon.com/Enlightenment-Now-Science-Humanism-Progress/dp/0525427570</a>
:<br>
"If you think the world is coming to an end, think again: people
are living longer, healthier, freer, and happier lives, and
while our problems are formidable, the solutions lie in the
Enlightenment ideal of using reason and science.<br>
Is the world really falling apart? Is the ideal of progress
obsolete? In this elegant assessment of the human condition in
the third millennium, cognitive scientist and public
intellectual Steven Pinker urges us to step back from the gory
headlines and prophecies of doom, which play to our
psychological biases. Instead, follow the data: In seventy-five
jaw-dropping graphs, Pinker shows that life, health, prosperity,
safety, peace, knowledge, and happiness are on the rise, not
just in the West, but worldwide. This progress is not the result
of some cosmic force. It is a gift of the Enlightenment: the
conviction that reason and science can enhance human
flourishing.<br>
Far from being a naïve hope, the Enlightenment, we now know, has
worked. But more than ever, it needs a vigorous defense. The
Enlightenment project swims against currents of human
nature--tribalism, authoritarianism, demonization, magical
thinking--which demagogues are all too willing to exploit. Many
commentators, committed to political, religious, or romantic
ideologies, fight a rearguard action against it. The result is a
corrosive fatalism and a willingness to wreck the precious
institutions of liberal democracy and global cooperation.<br>
With intellectual depth and literary flair, Enlightenment Now
makes the case for reason, science, and humanism: the ideals we
need to confront our problems and continue our progress." <br>
<br>
You might argue that it's not going to hold in the future, but I
think you're on shaky ground to argue we are in trouble now.<br>
<br>
Pieter </div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, 22 Jan 2020 at 17:32,
Merle Lefkoff <<a href="mailto:merlelefkoff@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div class="gmail_default"
style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">This is the hubris
that has got us into so much trouble!</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Jan 22, 2020 at
1:00 AM Pieter Steenekamp <<a
href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">Yep, I would go for this one. IMO we are
involved in a collective process where communication,
reason, and action are indeed possible and flourishing.
Sure there are risks, climate change being one but not
the only one. Humanity is still very fragile and
vulnerable to existential risks like climate change, a
big meteor or comet hitting the earth, a big sun flare
causing major damage to our electricity distribution
networks, new very dangerous, and others. The end could
come before I finish this sentence. But on the positive
side if you observe the progress that has happened, I am
very optimistic that we are on the path towards a better
future. <br>
I am a big fan of David Deutsch. Apart from him being
part of having developed the first quantum computer
algorithm (<a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsch%E2%80%93Jozsa_algorithm"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsch%E2%80%93Jozsa_algorithm</a>)
, his views on infinite progress as per his book The
Beginning of Infinity resonates very well with me.<br>
I quote about the book from wikipedia (<a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beginning_of_Infinity"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beginning_of_Infinity</a>)<br>
“Deutsch views the Enlightenment of the 18th century as
near the beginning of an infinite sequence of
purposeful knowledge creation. Knowledge here consists
of information with good explanatory function that has
proven resistant to falsification. Any real process is
physically possible to perform provided the knowledge to
do so has been acquired. The Enlightenment set up the
conditions for knowledge creation which disrupted the
static societies that previously existed. These
conditions are the valuing of creativity and the free
and open debate that exposed ideas to criticism to
reveal those good explanatory ideas that naturally
resist being falsified due to their having basis in
reality. Deutsch points to previous moments in history,
such as Renaissance Florence and Plato's Academy in
Golden Age Athens, where this process almost got
underway before succumbing to their static societies'
resistance to change.”<br>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Pieter</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, 22 Jan 2020 at
01:05, Marcus Daniels <<a
href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div
style="font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><font
size="2"><span style="font-size:11pt">Nick
writes:</span></font></div>
<div
style="font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><font
size="2"><span style="font-size:11pt"><br>
</span></font></div>
<div
style="font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><font
size="2"><span style="font-size:11pt">"So, in
these sorts of situations, people tend to sort
themselves out into Dionysians and
Apollonians, the former declaring that we're
probably fucked and we might as well stay
warm, run around in our cars, and burn all the
coal we can, and the later declaring that we
have a chance to get it right and we should
take our best shot."</span></font></div>
<div
style="font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br>
</div>
<div
style="font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)">How
about one step back: Are we involved in a
collective process where communication, reason,
and action are possible? If we are not, then
democracy is nothing more than a temporary way to
keep the peace and to diffuse a need many have for
(a feeling of) agency. It is a rearrangement of
deck chairs because soon the real shit will be
coming down. If all living creatures are just
riding a wave, a process unfolding and going
wherever it must go, some may recognize they have
no control and rationally opt for the Dionysian
approach. Other living things like koalas and
kangeroos and polar bears die by the millions,
helpless and afraid. At least the Dionysian gets
the luxury of recognizing, "Yep, this is it." It
just depends on what kind of influence *can*
work. At one point the British Empire ruled over
a quarter of the world. Now it isn't even
possible to get people to dispose of their plastic
bottles properly. I think the Apollonians better
take charge ASAP, if that's what they are going to
do.
<br>
</div>
<div
style="font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br>
</div>
<div
style="font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Marcus<br>
</div>
<hr style="display:inline-block;width:98%">
<div
id="gmail-m_-1206043701491105289gmail-m_-3798373307143515647gmail-m_6608144318511361591divRplyFwdMsg"
dir="ltr"><font style="font-size:11pt"
face="Calibri, sans-serif" color="#000000"><b>From:</b>
Friam <<a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ <<a
href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">gepropella@gmail.com</a>><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, January 21, 2020 2:49 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> FriAM <<a
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump</font>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div><font size="2"><span style="font-size:11pt">
<div>Nah. I reject the dichotomy. I consider
myself both D and an A, but in different
domains. And I think it might be reasonable
to time slice between A & D. My sister's
ex used to say "We play hard and we work
hard" ... indicating that they were both D
& A, maybe even simultaneously,
depending on how you interpret that.<br>
<br>
The more interesting thing about AGW is
whether or not one *must* be a believer or a
"skeptic" [†], and nothing in between. As a
dyed in the wool agnostic, I neither believe
nor am I a "skeptic", from gun control to
abortion to AGW. I also don't like Britney
Spears' music. But if she showed up at my
door and asked me to ... oh, I don't know
... create a visualization package for her
music, I would definitely do it, which would
mean listening to her music a LOT for days
on end. You don't have to agree with a
mission in order to contribute to the
mission.<br>
<br>
So, it seems to me to be *unreasonable* to
run around complaining about how so many
people are AGW believers. So what? If you
don't want to work on the problem, go work
on something else. It's just weird how the
"skeptics" are so obsessed. E.g.<br>
<br>
<a
href="https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Bj%C3%B8rn_Lomborg"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Bj%C3%B8rn_Lomborg</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[†] In quotes to indicate that many people
abuse the term. I am a skeptic, but not a
"skeptic" ... if you grok the gist.<br>
<br>
On 1/21/20 12:17 PM, <a
href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>
wrote:<br>
> While I am "in", it seems to me that a
distinction is beginning to evolve here
between whether a reasonable person CAN
doubt Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) and
whether such a person SHOULD doubt AGW. I
think reasonable people could argue whether
we are in a period of AGW (400yrs), a period
of global cooling (11,000 yrs) or a
spectacularly fragile and geologically
unprecedented period of climate stability
(also about 11kyrs). So, in these sorts of
situations, people tend to sort themselves
out into Dionysians and Apollonians, the
former declaring that we're probably fucked
and we might as well stay warm, run around
in our cars, and burn all the coal we can,
and the later declaring that we have a
chance to get it right and we should take
our best shot. I am, as you all know, with
the Apollonians. We are, after all, the
choosing species, the species that can
knowingly chart it's own path. So we
“should” choose; in fact, we /will/ chose,
even if we only do so by<br>
> choosing not to choose. <br>
> <br>
> <br>
> <br>
> But it's clear, now why the debate is
so intractable. The debate between
Dionysians and Apollonians has been in
progress for centuries, so it's no surprise
that we are struggling with it now. <br>
> <br>
> <br>
> <br>
> I hear some of you formulating an
argument that whether we are D’s or A’s
should be determined by the shape of the
hazard space. As a collective, I think we
FRIAMMERS are particularly well positioned
and qualified to have that discussion, and I
hope it will continue. <br>
<br>
-- <br>
☣ uǝlƃ<br>
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<br clear="all">
<div><br>
</div>
-- <br>
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">
<div>Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br>
<a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">emergentdiplomacy.org</a></div>
<div>Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA</div>
<div><a href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br>
mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>
skype: merle.lelfkoff2<br>
</div>
<div>twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<br>
</div>
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</pre>
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