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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Frank,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Oh, I don’t mean THAT kind of sleep. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I just mean that, if my head is full of shitty thoughts about the future, telling myself that I am not going to wake up is actually calming. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>It’s an instance of Thompson’s First Law: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:Algerian'>Thou shalt not worry about two mutually exclusive calamities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I developed this law when I found myself sitting on my sunny front porch in New Braintree worrying, alternately, that the young elm tree growing near the porch would grow up and cast shade on the porch AND that the young elm tree growing near the porch would die of dutch elm disease. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I figured that if I had nothing better to do with my mind, I should probably take a nap. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank Wimberly<br><b>Sent:</b> Friday, March 20, 2020 1:02 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Don't go to sleep, please<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Frank<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>---<br>Frank C. Wimberly<br>505 670-9918<br>Santa Fe, NM<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Hi, Y’all, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two sessions, equally interesting, but quite different. Session one was an expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission. Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing, psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so paradoxical: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=m6592300347653895626quotation>“One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition is a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come through it.” <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Most actionable suggestion of the day: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=m6592300347653895626quotation>Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials begin to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system that will be regarded as legitimate by the general public. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=m6592300347653895626quotation>How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable. One the one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=m6592300347653895626quotation> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>I know how to handle it individually: If I start to panic, I just climb into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep. But conversation-wise, I am not so sure. Perhaps agree to devote small portion of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary? Assuming we can do that, here is my suggestion for a catastrophic discussion: <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=m6592300347653895626quotation>Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders are closed? Draft out-of-school college students?) Our country is run by a gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect themselves. But they will mosty fail, in any case, because they are the most vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they bring down the whole? <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Ok. Now I am going to bed. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Nick<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Jon Zingale<br><b>Sent:</b> Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM<br><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333'>At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333'>of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333'>What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333'>that is consistent with the social distancing strategy?</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333'>For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model, </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333'>or simulation.</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333'> </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333'>Jon</span><o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal>============================================================<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br>to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>