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<p>While I'm sympathetic with the idea that the relative magnitude
of this threat *might* be on the same order as "hit by a car", and
that to the extent that panic behaviour has it's own risks and
unintended consequences, I think there is a qualitative issue at
hand as well.</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>It is as if the number of cars on the road just doubled and some
of the drivers come from the UK right-hand-driving sphere such
that while the risk of death has only roughly *doubled*, our
instincts are not tuned to where to look (left/right) when we step
out into the street. Our intuitions just aren't well tuned to
this.</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>Unfortunately, quantitative numbers are exponential not linear,
so even if you could compare it to "hit by a car", it doesn't
calibrate for crazy fluctuations in traffic. Like being the Frog
in Frogger right after a level-up.<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>This just out from James Tamplin (founder of Firebase), providing
a slightly finer grain model to refer to and build from:<a
href="https://covidactnow.org/"> https://covidactnow.org/ . </a>It
is worthwhile to read the assumptions that this model uses. It is
all transparent and implemented as spreadsheets that can be
downloaded and tweaked if you choose. It is strictly statistical
and aggregated at the State level, but does not take into account
variations in population density and personal encounters (this is
a case where the style of mixing implied by suburban car-culture
may be a lot safer than urban pedestrian-culture).<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>Mary and I have had to calibrate our sensitivity to risk several
times during this episode.</p>
<ol>
<li>We were on our way to a long overdue visit to my mother (91)
in her assisted living where most everyone else there is older
and more at-risk even than she is. Her TV has only one channel
(Fox) and she was reluctant (2 weeks ago) to believe that my
daughter in Portland with an 18 month old she hasn't met yet,
really shouldn't risk gathering virus particles through 3
airports and 2 planes to visit her. After they waved off, we
planned to come ahead as a consolation prize, as did my other
daughter and her 8 year old (we were both driving, avoiding
high-risk virus-gathering opportunities). Even though we were
already on the road when things really started looking bad (over
a week ago), I was pretty sure we shouldn't even risk *our*
bringing her anything from here or our travels, but was
reluctant to tell her that yet. 2 days in my daughter was
leaving Denver with two kids promised a Spring Break and we
negotiated a back-country tour of the 4 corners area, meeting up
with them, and not risk delivering virus particles to their
great/grandmother and her friends. </li>
<li>After listening to towns, counties, parks, states shut their
doors on our heels as we traveled through, we were feeling a
little "guilty" by the time we arrived back on our fairly
isolated home(stead) 20 minutes outside of Santa Fe. Our
normal life involves at most 3 trips to *some* town, and even
then very limited interaction with others usually. Dropping
back to 1 very careful grocery run a week is not that big of a
step for us.</li>
<li>We now have other semi-rural friends/neighbors trying to
negotiate visits with us which we are trying to sort through.
In our early 60s, we are marginally at higher risk than many,
but most of those friends/neighbors include at least 1 member in
their late 70s or even 80s. Their level of self-concern varies
wildly from radical germophobe to devil-may-care
libertarians. I could mix with any *one* of these sub-cliques
comfortably if I didn't feel like I was risking
cross-contamination between them. The highest-risk-taking
groups aren't too high-risk for us, nor are the
lowest-risk-takers too low, but I"m unwilling to accidentally
bridge the two.</li>
<li>Our 5 (collectively) adult children have roughly 5 different
circumstances and sensibilities about this pandemic. One is a
virologist who is already engaged in working directly on the
problem. Two others are owners of small businesses which are
direct personal service (crossfit gym and art framing-shop) and
one is a child social worker who supervises dozens of people
whose everyday job is to do home visits with families in
crisis... this quarantine situation puts some of those families
at yet higher risk in several ways. The fifth just got the
diagnosis (this week) that his wife very likely has a cancer
that will need/deserve surgery AND chemo/rad ASAP. Juggling
our advice/support across this diversity is a challenge, though
a tiny fraction I think of what *many* have to face.</li>
<li>Mary is intrinsically more concerned about her personal health
than I tend to be (about my own) which means she is moderately
more healthy but at the same time more fragile in her
concerns. She took two weeks to recover from a COVID_like flu
with bacterial (sinus) complications just a month ago... had
that hit a week or two later, we would have had to respond
*as-if* it were COVID19. She did give over to a doc visit who
threw antibiotics at her, and the secondary sinus (with fever)
cleared up in days. I have no idea how that would have
unfolded under the current shadows.</li>
<li>I just glanced through Barry's post just now and was reminded
of the issue of Asymptomatic transmission vs what I prefer to
think of as Presymptomatic. Presymptomatic includes some
coughing and sneezing that you don't attribute to an illness
(yet)... if you are an annual allergy sufferer, for example, it
could be easy to assume the increased sneezing is an allergy
(and it might be!) right up until you get hit with a fever or
discover someone in your social network is symptomatic/positive.</li>
</ol>
<p>Blah blah,</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:BY5PR11MB38962E48CF7ADFE05E8E2529C5F20@BY5PR11MB3896.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
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<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Gillian writes:</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
"One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car
than not making it through this, what ever it is. "</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
In 2018 in Italy, there were 3,325 fatalities from road
accidents.[1] There have been
<span><span>4,032</span></span> fatalities from COVID-19 so
far. The governor of California announced that 56% of the
state could contract the virus.[2] Extrapolating that to the
whole country, an uncontrolled outbreak would kill about 1.8
million people at a 1% fatality rate. There were <span><span>33,654</span></span>
road fatalities in the United States in 2018.</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<span><span>Stay at home.</span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<span><span><br>
</span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<span><span>Marcus</span></span><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
[1] <a
href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/437928/number-of-road-deaths-in-italy/"
id="LPNoLP976619" moz-do-not-send="true">
https://www.statista.com/statistics/437928/number-of-road-deaths-in-italy/</a></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
[2] <a href="https://abc7news.com/6029302/" id="LPNoLP367288"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://abc7news.com/6029302/</a><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
[3] <a
href="https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state"
id="LPNoLP892319" moz-do-not-send="true">
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state</a><br>
</div>
<br>
<br>
<hr style="display:inline-block;width:98%" tabindex="-1">
<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font style="font-size:11pt"
face="Calibri, sans-serif" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> on behalf of Gillian
Densmore <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:gil.densmore@gmail.com"><gil.densmore@gmail.com></a><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Saturday, March 21, 2020 6:53 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation</font>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div>
<div dir="ltr">Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a
fragile mess as is. My concern that I realize is a pretty
unpopular opinion is a total lack of perspective. One side of
that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not
making it through this, what ever it is. I gather the real
issue isn't that, it's people who for what ever reason don't
quite stay at some dry caugh cold, nasty flue like stage but
then also get just nastily congested lungs that need
sterrioids and oxygen.
<div>And all of that on top of a surreal amount of hyping up
the negative and turning it into a WWF style match from
media. "PANDEMIC 2000 (PANDEMIC, DEMIC EPIDEMIC MOOONSTER
DEMIC RACING 2020!!! ALL THE...SAME SOUND BYTES NOW WITH
MORE COWBELL!!!" I don't know if that'll read well in
text. Anyone that was a kid of the 80s(us) and they'd have
this truck rally adds on Saturdays and Sometimes Sundays. I
imagine how that'd sound with this Max-Hendroomy thing of
turning this epidemic into something like that. As if it's a
80s WWF wrestling match</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>But then also the scientists I don't think are saying
lock yourself inside.(yet) Pretty disturbing to call 'Eh
well try to avoid people' as Social Distancing.</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="x_gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="x_gmail_attr">On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at
11:49 PM Marcus Daniels <<a
href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" moz-do-not-send="true">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="x_gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex; border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);
padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="auto"><br>
It’s not about stalling for a treatment, it is to pace the
hospital arrivals.<br>
<div dir="ltr"><br>
<blockquote type="cite">On Mar 20, 2020, at 10:44 PM,
Gillian Densmore <<a
href="mailto:gil.densmore@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">gil.densmore@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">fuck "social distancing" this "shelter
in place" shit has the assumption that we'll pull a
rabbit out of our ass in 2-3 months tops. When in
the history of medicine has that ever happend? I
don't want people hurt by it. Drumming up more
hysteria than the news already does isn't helping
matters either.
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="x_gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="x_gmail_attr">On Fri, Mar 20,
2020 at 5:01 PM Merle Lefkoff <<a
href="mailto:merlelefkoff@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="x_gmail_quote" style="margin:0px
0px 0px 0.8ex; border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204); padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div class="x_gmail_default"
style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Below
is information I just saw from the Center
for American Progress on strategies to
insure the election process can move
forward. This is in answer to Nick's (and
my) concern.</div>
<div class="x_gmail_default"
style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<h3 style="box-sizing:inherit;
line-height:1.2; margin:0px 0px 0.5rem;
font-family:"Roboto Slab",serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51); font-size:2rem">
Expand opportunities for people to vote from
home or at quarantine locations</h3>
<p style="box-sizing:inherit;
font-size:1.1rem; font-family:"Open
Sans",sans-serif; line-height:1.7;
padding:10px 0px; color:rgb(51,51,51)">
States should think seriously about
adopting <a
href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing:inherit;
background-color:transparent;
text-decoration:none;
color:rgb(35,94,189)"
moz-do-not-send="true">all vote-by-mail</a> elections
with vote centers or other in-person options
for people who prefer or need them. States
such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington
have already implemented all-mail elections
with great success, and <a
href="https://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/hawaii-votes-by-mail/"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing:inherit;
background-color:transparent;
text-decoration:none;
color:rgb(35,94,189)"
moz-do-not-send="true">Hawaii will begin
implementing</a> all-mail voting during
the 2020 elections. Another option is to
adopt <a
href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing:inherit;
background-color:transparent;
text-decoration:none;
color:rgb(35,94,189)"
moz-do-not-send="true">no-excuse absentee
voting</a> and extend deadlines for
requesting absentee ballots. A handful of
states have <a
href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing:inherit;
background-color:transparent;
text-decoration:none;
color:rgb(35,94,189)"
moz-do-not-send="true">permanent absentee
voting</a>lists, whereby every registered
voter who signs up receives an absentee
ballot each election. As a precaution for
upcoming elections, jurisdictions should <a
href="https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-coronavirus-primary-election-mail-voting-20200312-rs7mnligozbv3f6m2wlrvr37ny-story.html"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing:inherit;
background-color:transparent;
text-decoration:none;
color:rgb(35,94,189)"
moz-do-not-send="true">automatically mail</a>a
ballot to each registered voter well in
advance of voting periods. Voters should be
able to return their ballots by mail or by
dropping their voted ballot off at
conveniently located secure drop boxes or at
drive-up, drop-off locations. Ballot
envelopes should be <a
href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html"
target="_blank" style="box-sizing:inherit;
background-color:transparent;
text-decoration:none;
color:rgb(35,94,189)"
moz-do-not-send="true">self-sealing to
protect</a> the health and safety of
election workers who handle absentee
ballots. All absentee ballots postmarked on
or before Election Day must be counted even
if they are ultimately received days later
due to postal service delays.</p>
<p style="box-sizing:inherit;
font-size:1.1rem; font-family:"Open
Sans",sans-serif; line-height:1.7;
padding:10px 0px; color:rgb(51,51,51)">
<br>
</p>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="x_gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="x_gmail_attr">On Fri, Mar
20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <<a
href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="x_gmail_quote"
style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;
border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);
padding-left:1ex">
<div lang="EN-US">
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">I thought this was
kind of interesting. </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a
href="https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus</a></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">If they were doing
something like this, might be able to
collect both the viral and human data
from one sample:</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a
href="https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf</a></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<div style="border-style:solid none none;
border-top-width:1pt;
border-top-color:rgb(181,196,223);
padding:3pt 0in 0in">
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:12pt;
color:black">From: </span>
</b><span style="font-size:12pt;
color:black">Friam <<a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
on behalf of Frank Wimberly <<a
href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning
Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Date: </b>Friday, March 20, 2020
at 12:02 PM<br>
<b>To: </b>The Friday Morning
Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM]
Outbreak Simulation</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Don't go to
sleep, please </p>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">I think our
institutions are more robust and
durable than you do.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Frank</p>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">---<br>
Frank C. Wimberly<br>
505 670-9918<br>
Santa Fe, NM</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">On Fri, Mar 20,
2020, 12:55 PM <<a
href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:</p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border-style:none
none none solid;
border-left-width:1pt;
border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);
padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;
margin-left:4.8pt; margin-right:0in">
<div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Hi, Y’all,
</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Just got
done with the FRIAM ZOOM
session, which seemed to divide
into two sessions, equally
interesting, but quite
different. Session one was an
expert discussion of the
complexity dynamics of the
pandemic and how technology
could be used to maximize
privacy while slowing
transmission. Session two was
an exploration of what it is
actually going to be like to
live through the next six
months, and what, if anything we
should be doing, psychologically
and practically, to prepare
ourselves for it. </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Most
riveting quote of the day,
perhaps more riveting because it
was so paradoxical:
</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p>“One thing you better have in
mind as you plunge into a phase
transition is a clear idea of
how you want the world to look
like after you come through it.”
</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Most
actionable suggestion of the
day: </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p>Insist by every means possible
that local and state election
officials begin to plan (and
practice in the primaries) a
non-in-person voting system that
will be regarded as legitimate
by the general public.
</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Personally,
speaking for myself, I was left
with one meta-question:
</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p>How much time do we devote to
trying to imagine the
unimaginable. One the one hand,
it seems like we have to; on the
otherhand, trying to do it is so
scarey that it runs the risk of
bringing all thought to a stop.
</p>
<p> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">I know how
to handle it individually: If I
start to panic, I just climb
into bed, imagine that I am
never going to wake up, and go
to sleep. But
conversation-wise, I am not so
sure. Perhaps agree to devote
small portion of the
conversation to catastrophic
thinking, with a clear
boundary? Assuming we can do
that, here is my suggestion for
a catastrophic discussion:
</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p>Worse than the worst
predictions for the virus acting
alone, are the consequences of
the virus acting in concert with
a total collapse of our
institututions, food production,
distributution, our elections,
public order, etc. (e.g., Who is
going to plant and pick the
crops if the borders are
closed? Draft out-of-school
college students?) Our country
is run by a gerontocracy, which,
being human, will try above all
to protect themselves. But they
will mosty fail, in any case,
because they are the most
vulnerable. What if, in their
vain attempt to protect
themselves, they bring down the
whole? </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Ok. Now I
am going to bed. </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Nick</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Nicholas
Thompson</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Emeritus
Professor of Ethology and
Psychology</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Clark
University</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><b>From:</b>
Friam <<a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Jon Zingale<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, March 20,
2020 12:02 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM]
Outbreak Simulation</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12pt;
font-family:Garamond,serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51)">At
home, we are discussing
the effect of the virus
and the effect</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12pt;
font-family:Garamond,serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51)">of
social distancing on
individuals that rely on
soup kitchens.</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12pt;
font-family:Garamond,serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51)">What
strategies can Friam
produce for feeding these
people</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12pt;
font-family:Garamond,serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51)">that
is consistent with the
social distancing
strategy?</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12pt;
font-family:Garamond,serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51)">For
bonus points, please
justify posted strategies
with a model, </span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12pt;
font-family:Garamond,serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51)">or
simulation.</span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12pt;
font-family:Garamond,serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51)"> </span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12pt;
font-family:Garamond,serif;
color:rgb(51,51,51)">Jon</span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">============================================================<br>
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by Dr. Strangelove</p>
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<div>Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>
President, Center for Emergent
Diplomacy<br>
<a
href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">emergentdiplomacy.org</a></div>
<div>Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA</div>
<div><a
href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br>
mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>
skype: merle.lelfkoff2<br>
</div>
<div>twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<br>
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============================================================<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's
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FRIAM-COMIC <a
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rel="noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">
http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr.
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</blockquote>
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<span>============================================================</span><br>
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<span>FRIAM-COMIC <a
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by Dr. Strangelove</span><br>
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
archives back to 2003: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove
</pre>
</blockquote>
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