<div dir="ltr">From my friend Mike Collins and Kathy Fox, reliable sources.<br clear="all"><div><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><br>============================================<br>Tom Johnson - <a href="mailto:tom@jtjohnson.com" target="_blank">tom@jtjohnson.com</a><br>Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA<br>505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h)<br><a href="http://nmfog.org" target="_blank"><b><font color="#0b5394">NM Foundation for Open Government</font></b></a><br><b><font color="#0000ff">Check out <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Its-The-Peoples-Data/1599854626919671" target="_blank">It's The People's Data</a></font></b> </div><div>============================================</div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">Michael Collins</b> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:amc@alumni.princeton.edu">amc@alumni.princeton.edu</a>></span><br>Date: Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:50 AM<br>Subject: Old friends Covid-19 letter #2<br>To: Kathe P Fox <<a href="mailto:kathe@kathefox.com">kathe@kathefox.com</a>><br></div><br><br><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small"><br></div><div><span id="m_-2870563436828319602gmail-docs-internal-guid-56e1fe97-7fff-81f2-c3c5-91db82cd3ae1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Contents:</span></p><ol style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:decimal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Feedback from our first letter</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:decimal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">New research</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:decimal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Links to more information</span></p></li></ol><br><br><ol style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:decimal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Feedback</span></p></li></ol><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">You are receiving this because we got a lot of positive feedback from our first letter. Thanks! We have two responses:</span></p><br><ul style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Several people mentioned various drugs as potential health supplements or treatments. Since we think you should listen to experts, and we’re not experts on drugs or clinical practice, we’re not going to discuss drugs and treatments.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">A reader asked whether the “flatten the curve” charts we have been seeing reflect the same number of hospital cases as in the worst case scenarios. Yes, they do. However, there is reason to be optimistic. It’s quite possible that while we are putting off being exposed, better treatments may be developed, even before a vaccine is available. Think of how AZT helped mitigate the effects of HIV. Then the “flatten the curve” charts would reflect a smaller area below the curve.</span></p></li></ul><br><ol style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px" start="2"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:decimal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Comments on new research</span></p></li></ol><br><ol style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:upper-alpha;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-style:italic;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Nature Medicine</span><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> article: Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Takeaways:</span></p></li></ol><br><ul style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> The death rate in Wuhan was lower than originally thought. This is because the population number (the denominator) increased. Think of it like an iceberg. The first studies were done on the tip, now we’re learning more about the part under water. This doesn’t mean the disease is any less serious, but it’s good news.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Wuhan wasn’t prepared. We should expect a lower mortality rate in places that are better prepared. Also good news. </span></p></li></ul><br><ol style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px" start="2"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:upper-alpha;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><a href="http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/commentary-covid-19-transmission-messages-should-hinge-science" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/commentary-covid-19-transmission-messages-should-hinge-science</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> COMMENTARY: COVID-19 transmission messages should hinge on science</span></p></li></ol><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-left:36pt;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Georgia;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-style:italic;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Lida Brousseau, ScD, is a national expert on respiratory protection and infectious diseases and professor (retired), University of Illinois at Chicago.</span></p><br><ul style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This is </span><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-style:italic;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">potentially </span><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">bad news. Based on some non-peer-reviewed reports, short range aerosol transmission may be a bigger factor in catching the virus than we suspected.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Short range aerosol transmission means an infected person coughs/sneezes and the droplets stay in the air for a certain period of time - we don’t know how long. A study found that the SARS virus could stay in the air for up to three hours. You are exposed by inhaling the droplets (aerosol).</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">If confirmed, this finding is primarily important to medical professionals, who will need to take more precautions, especially mask-wearing.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">“The public should avoid crowded spaces, stay home when possible, prepare for a lengthy period at home in case of quarantine, and follow public health and government instructions.” We should NOT buy, hoard, or wear masks, as they will be needed by health workers.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Hand washing and surface cleaning may not be as important as first thought, but we should keep it up.</span></p></li></ul><br><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">3. Some interesting links</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Washington Post. Simple simulations of how the virus spreads under various conditions. Should be free to access. </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/</span></a></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">NYT Zeke Emanuel flatten the curve explainer. Should be free to access. </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html</span></a></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">If you want a really deep dive, you can take a whole course on Covid-19, developed by Imperial College and presented through Coursera. Free, approximately 19 hours to complete. </span><a href="https://www.coursera.org/learn/covid-19?utm_medium=email&utm_source=marketing&utm_campaign=tIo98GlqEeqd_xFKDENJkw#syllabus" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://www.coursera.org/learn/covid-19?utm_medium=email&utm_source=marketing&utm_campaign=tIo98GlqEeqd_xFKDENJkw#syllabus</span></a></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><a href="https://healthweather.us/" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">https://healthweather.us/</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> is a site developed for forecasting flu-like symptoms. It has added a view for “ atypical illness,” not necessarily covid but probably. You can see how things look in your state, county, or ZIP code. It looks to me like we should be sealing the border with Florida.</span></p><br><br><br></span><div style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small"></div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><b><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">Michael Collins<br><a href="mailto:amc@alumni.princeton.edu" target="_blank">amc@alumni.princeton.edu</a></font></b></div></div></div>
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