<div dir="ltr">Per this morning's presentation and conversations<br clear="all"><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><br>============================================<br>Tom Johnson - <a href="mailto:tom@jtjohnson.com" target="_blank">tom@jtjohnson.com</a><br>Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA<br>505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h)<br><a href="http://nmfog.org" target="_blank"><b><font color="#0b5394">NM Foundation for Open Government</font></b></a><br><b><font color="#0000ff">Check out <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Its-The-Peoples-Data/1599854626919671" target="_blank">It's The People's Data</a></font></b> </div><div>============================================</div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">Marjorie Childress, New Mexico In Depth</strong> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:nmindepth@gmail.com">nmindepth@gmail.com</a>></span><br>Date: Fri, Mar 27, 2020 at 1:17 PM<br>Subject: COVID-19: What data can tell us. And what it can't.<br>To: <<a href="mailto:jtjohnson555@gmail.com">jtjohnson555@gmail.com</a>><br></div><br><br><u></u>
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<p style="text-align:center!important;margin:10px 0;padding:0;color:#757575;font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:23px">What data can tell us. What it can't.</span><br>
<span style="font-size:17px"><em>"The safest message is that a single case can lead to further spread."</em></span><br>
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By Marjorie Childress</p>
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<p dir="ltr" style="margin:10px 0;padding:0;color:#757575;font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:150%;text-align:left">New Mexico\u2019s COVID-19 cases increased to 136 yesterday, 13 people are hospitalized, one person has died. And now, the governor wants the U.S. Department of Defense to set up a staffed 248-bed combat hospital in Albuquerque. <br>
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Lujan Grisham wrote it\u2019s \u201curgently needed\u201d in a letter to Defense Secretary Mark Esper because COVID-19 might overwhelm New Mexico\u2019s medical facilities.<br>
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That\u2019s where New Mexico stands at the moment, and the combination of those stats, not to mention all the data and modeling that\u2019s swirling around the internet, might make you anxious. <br>
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Many turn to data to help them understand the world. But the big problem with data about COVID-19 is the gaps. There are many. Still, as insufficient as available data is, what we do have may provide much-needed perspective. <br>
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New Mexico In Depth compared U.S. Census bureau state population numbers to data <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=595d4832de&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">compiled</a> by the <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=7a0cdd27d4&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">Covid Tracking Project</a>. There\u2019s some data missing, due to gaps in what individual states are reporting. But there\u2019s enough to show New Mexico in the top tier of states for tests conducted per 100,000 people, according to our analysis and <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=2f66494d92&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">that of others</a>. Even though the state hasn\u2019t near enough testing capacity, leaving most who want one high and dry, it seems to be doing as many as it can. The more testing we\u2019re able to do the better, because that helps officials trace and hopefully contain the virus.<br>
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New Mexico also has one of the lowest positive test rates. In other words, the percent of tests in New Mexico coming back positive is very low compared to other states. Once the numbers were updated yesterday afternoon, New Mexico\u2019s positive test rate had increased to 2%, still very low comparatively. It was one percent before that. <br>
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In an interview Thursday, Dr. Chad Smelser, deputy state epidemiologist, agreed New Mexico\u2019s positive test rate is low.<br>
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One possibility for that, he said, is the state tests a greater range of people.<br>
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\u201cIn the state of New Mexico, we\u2019ve taken the approach of testing more people than other surrounding states,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you focus your testing only on the very sickest patients who have no other explanation for their illness, you\u2019d expect to have more of those test positive in that population. When you expand to a greater number of people, people with milder symptoms, on occasion we had people tested who had no symptoms, you would expect the rate at which your test is positive to be lower.\u201d<br>
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Another possible explanation for the low rate, he said, is that there\u2019s not an \u201coverwhelming\u201d amount of the virus in New Mexico, right now, although officials are seeing it throughout the different regions of the state. <br>
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Smelser noted that there are models circulating on the internet with projections about how many people may eventually get the disease, and how many could be expected to die. He said he and his colleagues evaluate those models for applicability to New Mexico but cautioned that they can\u2019t be applied in cookie cutter fashion. The state is geographically large with a small population. Mashing it up in the same models as hyper-dense New York City doesn\u2019t help New Mexicans understand how COVID-19 will spread in their state. The DOH and its partners are working to come up with New Mexico modeling, he said, that takes into account density, demographics, and other factors specific to the state. <br>
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In the end, available data and models at our fingertips about COVID-19 are insufficient. We simply lack the data we need, which is unnerving for people who turn to data--many of us --to make sense of the world. <br>
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But there is one data point Smelser sounded very definitive about.<br>
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\u201cThe safest message is that a single case can lead to further spread,\u201d he said.<br>
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With more testing there will be more positive test results. Looking at cumulative numbers reported by the New Mexico Department of Health shows how the number of tests and positive results have swerved skyward since March 4. <br>
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It\u2019s that curve upward that authorities are so diligently trying to flatten through social distancing and isolation policies for the general public. It\u2019s the data we are urged to take to heart.<br>
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Studies have shown that New Mexico has <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=fda1442dde&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">fewer hospital beds than the national average</a>. Given that, even if New Mexico\u2019s infection and hospitalization rates ultimately are low compared to other states, its hospitals may still not have enough capacity for very ill patients who will need ICU beds and ventilators for survival if there\u2019s a need all at once. <br>
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That\u2019s a likely reason Lujan Grisham began very early ordering businesses closed and urging New Mexicans to stay at home, so as to slow the rate of infection. And why now, she\u2019s called for an Army hospital in New Mexico. <br>
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<strong>Covid-19 Resource Pages ---- Please let us know what we should add to our resources page. </strong></p>
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<li>New Mexico In Depth is mapping the outbreak in New Mexico. Here is our <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=e9759d7bba&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">resource page</a>. </li>
<li>The State of New Mexico <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=f3b25fa04a&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">resource page</a>.</li>
<li>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=167de958af&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">resource page</a> with information about the disease, prevention and containment efforts. </li>
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<p dir="ltr" style="margin:10px 0;padding:0;color:#757575;font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:150%;text-align:left"><u><span style="font-size:17px"><strong>This week from New Mexico In Depth</strong></span></u></p>
<strong>Domestic violence:</strong> NMID\u2019s Celia Raney wrote about the <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=25fb0f217a&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">increased risk of domestic violence </a>as New Mexicans find themselves enduring stay at home orders with no end in sight.
<p dir="ltr" style="margin:10px 0;padding:0;color:#757575;font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:150%;text-align:left"><strong>Spring semester goes online:</strong> State officials <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=3e4a7878fe&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">reported today</a> that all public schools in New Mexico would move to online instruction through the end of the semester. </p>
<strong>Working from Home:</strong> The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=74e4c20c5b&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">reversed course </a>to allow some administrative staff to work from home during the COVID-19 pandemic one day after New Mexico In Depth and ProPublica reported that the federal agency had banned such telework authorizations.<br>
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<strong>Lack of protective equipment: </strong>Officials confirmed to Bryant Furlow that frontline clinicians in Albuquerque \u2014 the hospital workers most likely to come into direct contact with contagious patients \u2014 <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=babb938c2c&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">face rationing of personal protective equipment</a>, or PPE, and are not being tested for COVID-19 unless they start to show symptoms.
<p dir="ltr" style="margin:10px 0;padding:0;color:#757575;font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:150%;text-align:left"><strong>Community spread:</strong> New Mexico is <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=165409441c&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">experiencing community transmission </a>of COVID-19, which is more worrisome to public health experts than travel-related transmission of the virus. Bryant Furlow explained why. </p>
<p dir="ltr" style="margin:10px 0;padding:0;color:#757575;font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:150%;text-align:left"><strong>Las Cruces: </strong>Positive cases of COVID-19 are stacking up in Southern New Mexico\u2019s population center. New Mexico In Depth fellow Leah Romero reports on <a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=212f658532&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank">what the city has done so far</a>.<br>
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<span style="font-size:14px">New Mexico In Depth is mapping the outbreak by county. <br>
Click on the map below for an interactive map of New Mexico by county. </span><br>
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<a href="https://nmindepth.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363&id=140d4a9da8&e=a69158e1ca" style="color:#007c89;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target="_blank"><img height="619" src="https://mcusercontent.com/1d2ab093d81b992e50978b363/images/6ed2dbed-ce95-4ee3-ab5c-de11cc7ed7e9.png" style="border:0px;width:600px;height:619px;margin:0px;outline:none;text-decoration:none" width="600"></a>
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