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<p class="MsoNormal">Steve, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Perhaps we might talk about this on
Friday. I guess the questions are, </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">“Can we eliminate community transfer?” </p>
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<p>By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the
*source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect? <br>
</p>
<p> The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of
people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the
exponential growth) below 1.0... <br>
</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">and, if so, “At what level of social
distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a
program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is
assured?”</p>
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I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very
important... but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.
In principle, keeping <br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p>Not clear how to do that in the
blue states if the red states are still going exponential. </p>
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Re: Balkanization<br>
<p>I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red
States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the
price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population
densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns... compared
for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing
commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.</p>
<p>And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves
more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban
landscapes. <br>
</p>
<p>In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections
and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity. So
Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during
the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them
the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to
be crypto-infected?</p>
<p>I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a
few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid
dehumanization of "the other"... a "friend" can become a
"dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in
this case)? Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by
tweet"? then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and
Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?<br>
</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom
about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess.
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<p>I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one.
FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already
making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican;
B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course). I
don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by
mail). Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee
ballots. <br>
</p>
<p>The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how
refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail,
etc.) will be politicized immediately. I'm hoping that the
remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a
lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main
elections which will be much more controversial.</p>
<p>I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on
things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I
can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in
all venues.</p>
<p>- STeve<br>
</p>
<p><br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">N<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Steven
A Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After
the Wave<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p>SG<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which
preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked
those! I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are
on this with full attention.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Did anyone else watch this 2 hour
presentation? I'm working my way through it now in the
background.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">SS<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">I mentioned this on the close of
Virtual Friam today:<br>
<a
href="https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic</a> <br>
<br>
The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social
distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after
far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under
what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine?
On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics
discussed strategies for both public health and economic
recovery and answered questions from the SFI community.
This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that
will be convened to address this crisis. <br>
<br>
Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology,
University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los
Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan
School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics,
Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl,
Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation <o:p></o:p></p>
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<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">_______________________________________________________________________<br>
<a
href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">Stephen.Guerin@Simtable.com</a>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">CEO, Simtable <a
href="http://www.simtable.com/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.simtable.com</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">1600 Lena St #D1,
Santa Fe, NM 87505 <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">office:
(505)995-0206 <span
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:9.5pt">twitter:
@simtable</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:9.5pt"><a
href="http://zoom.com/j/5055775828"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">zoom.com/j/5055775828</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
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