<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
</head>
<body>
<p><br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Nick -</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">I wrote (yet) another long-winded
answer but am trying to give you the most succinct version I can:</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">I think you are nearly correct. <br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">First: Yes, "community transmission" is
somewhat another name for our ignorance... but it is a critical
threshold. As soon as you have one case you don't know where it
came from, it is very likely that you have more, and for each of
those, you will have yet more... so it isn't quite as benign as
simple "ignorance" implies...</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Second: The virus will spread
exponentially until we reduce the average number of people to be
infected by a given infected person. This is what is called
R0. As people get infected and recover and therefore become
(very likely) immune, the number of susceptible individuals in the
population goes down, and the R0 with it. If you encounter 10
people a day on average, and have a 20% chance of infecting them
but half of them are immune, then your R0 becomes 10*.2/2 = 1.0
! When R0 drops to 1.0, the exponential growth flattens to
linear and anything below 1.0 leads to an eventual dying out. A
widely deployed vaccine allows you to skip the step of having to
become infected, survive, and recover. <br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">In the meantime (before sufficient
herd-immunity is reached naturally, augmented by vaccines
eventually) we need to practice some amount of social distancing
to keep R0 down. As we learn more about the modes of
transmission, add early detection (through widespread testing, and
possibly wide-spread citizen-reporting) then our best hope is
significant social distancing. Meanwhile, more severe social
distancing protects our most vulnerable (elderly and those with
conditions known to go badly with COVID19). We will see properly
vetted/tested anti-virals and symptom-reducers (e.g. cytokine
storm prevention) before a vaccine which will reduce the number of
people needing hospitalization as well as mortality. And lastly,
antibody/plasma transfusions may help some of the more at-risk or
critical workers have temporary immunity while they wait for a
vaccine.<br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Right now, many of us are isolated at
the individual, the couple or possibly the nuclear family unit.
In principle, once we believe we have isolated sufficiently well
to not have much risk of contagion and sufficiently long to have
either had symptoms or to have been infected asymptomatically but
recovered. This might mean, for example, that if you and your
wife and your children and their children have all remained
separated but isolated, then you might be safe reuniting with them
as long as NONE OF YOU are mixing with a larger population. <br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">But like with the STD issue, all it
takes is one promiscuous (outside the group) person at the orgy to
ruin the "safe space". The larger the (extended) group, the more
chance someone will defect and bring it into the group
unexpectedly.<br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">So yes, much of what you call tourism
will be blunted/modified... so will casino gambling, church
attendance, public transit, etc. I believe that buses are still
running some places, but most passengers are likely wearing
gloves/masks, sitting one per seat-row and the staff is wiping
down hand-rails and other surfaces often. Airlines will probably
stand back up under similar restrictions soon. Churches and maybe
sporting events, and theater as well. But probably not for
(many?) months... </div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">I still remember when auditoriums and
movie theaters had ashtrays in the backs of seats... we will
probably remember fondly when seats were packed side-by-by side
and our great grandchildren will ask "grandpa... why are there all
those holes in the floor between the seats? People didn't
*really* sit so close did they? Don't they know that isn't
safe?" and "why weren't you wearing your masks in all the old
pictures?".</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Hope this helps a little?</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">- Steve<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:04af01d60d55$0b276240$217626c0$@gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered
medium)">
<style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Consolas;
panose-1:2 11 6 9 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
pre
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New";}
span.HTMLPreformattedChar
{mso-style-name:"HTML Preformatted Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted";
font-family:Consolas;}
span.EmailStyle25
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]-->
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal">Steve (Smith), <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I have always assumed that “community
transmission” is one of those bullshit terms that refers to
our own ignorance. If we were unable to find out how it got
transmitted then it was an instance of “community
transmission”. Am I wrong about that? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So, community transmission is just the
residue after we have failed at contact tracing. My
assumption is that until we have a vaccine, we have to
maintain sufficient social distancing to make rigorous contact
tracing (and isolation) possible. In other words, I have to
have contacted so few people (because of social isolation)
that when I get sick, all the people I have contacted can be
isolated for two weeks. Such a policy might permit the
reopening of offices on a alternative shift basis and the re
opening of some stores with policies equivalent to those the
food stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of
entertainment venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches,
lecture halls, bars, festivals, large scale air travel, and
other activities that we think of when we think of “tourism”.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I WANT to think different, and therefore I
am interested in the fact that you seem to disagree with me on
this point. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Steven
A Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState
OneState/TwoState<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">Steve, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Perhaps we might talk about this on
Friday. I guess the questions are, <o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">“Can we eliminate community transfer?” <o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p>By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the
*source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of
people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of
the exponential growth) below 1.0... <o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">and, if so, “At what level of social
distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that
a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation
is assured?”<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal">I would claim that the *quality* of social
distancing is very important... but those "qualities" haven't
been determined yet. In principle, keeping <br>
<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"> Not clear how to do that in the blue
states if the red states are still going exponential. <o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal">Re: Balkanization<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the
Red States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will
pay the price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower
population densities and "enclave" nature of many small
towns... compared for example to big cities connected by a
carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple urban centers
in every neighborhood.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their
curves more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser
urban/suburban landscapes. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage)
infections and deaths, but what goes with that is higher
herd-immunity. So Blue States might want to close their
borders to Red States during the first wave, but then the Red
States might want to close them the other direction when
"infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so
popular a few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia
and rapid dehumanization of "the other"... a "friend" can
become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood
(or spittle in this case)? Or maybe we can follow @POTUS
lead and "vote by tweet"? then the battle will be between
Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing the
@USElectionBallotBox ;) ?<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Also, I would like to hear a lot of
wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during
this mess. <o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p>I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social
one. FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are
already making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A)
Unamerican; B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of
course). I don't think it is an insurmountable technical
problem (vote by mail). Expanded "early voting" can help a
lot, as can absentee ballots. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of
how refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing,
absentee, mail, etc.) will be politicized immediately. I'm
hoping that the remaining Democrat primaries and the
Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some of that
out *before* the main elections which will be much more
controversial.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on
things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though
I can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee
voting in all venues.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>- STeve<o:p></o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">N<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steven A Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After
the Wave<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>SG<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I found Meyers' talks from the Fall
which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just
linked those! I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the
hill" are on this with full attention.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Did anyone else watch this 2 hour
presentation? I'm working my way through it now in the
background.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">SS<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I mentioned this on the close of
Virtual Friam today:<br>
<a
href="https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic</a> <br>
<br>
The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social
distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after
far too high a price is paid). But what comes next?
Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift
quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology
and economics discussed strategies for both public
health and economic recovery and answered questions from
the SFI community. This was the first of multiple
“lightning workshops” that will be convened to address
this crisis. <br>
<br>
Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology,
University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los
Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan
School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics,
Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl,
Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">_______________________________________________________________________<br>
<a
href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">Stephen.Guerin@Simtable.com</a>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">CEO, Simtable <a
href="http://www.simtable.com/"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.simtable.com</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">1600 Lena St #D1,
Santa Fe, NM 87505 <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">office:
(505)995-0206 <span
style="font-size:9.5pt">mobile:
(505)577-5828</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:9.5pt">twitter:
@simtable</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:9.5pt"><a
href="http://zoom.com/j/5055775828"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">zoom.com/j/5055775828</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<pre>-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6 <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" moz-do-not-send="true">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></pre>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<pre>..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></pre>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
<fieldset class="mimeAttachmentHeader"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
archives: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
</body>
</html>