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<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal">Steve,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I like your long wind. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I am grateful for your attempt to imagine a
world in the interim between the wave and the vaccine. <br>
</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>In the world pre-vaccine (including among wild animal
populations), the only thing keeping a disease from extincting a
population IS a combination of herd-immunity through antibody
formation and death itself. Highly deadly things like Ebola burn
out because they kill nearly everyone who contracts it, leaving
nobody in the village to re-infect. Entire populations can get
wiped out in the wild... (early 2000s, the magpies on the Rio
Grande were decimated and are only just now starting to return)<br>
</p>
<p>Our modern hyper-mixing (travel at many scales yielding contact
graphs at many scales) really aggravates disease spread cum
epidemic cum pandemic.<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:002001d60d69$12363d40$36a2b7c0$@gmail.com">
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Has china actually eliminated the virus
from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that
have blown in from other places? </p>
</div>
</blockquote>
I doubt it... and your reference to a "fire" analogy is apt... the
sparks are more likely coming from smoldering areas *within*...
catching flame in a wind and tosssing sparks into the next unburned
patch... <br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:002001d60d69$12363d40$36a2b7c0$@gmail.com">
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Steven
A Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:38 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState
OneState/TwoState<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick -<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I wrote (yet) another long-winded answer
but am trying to give you the most succinct version I can:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I think you are nearly correct. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">First: Yes, "community transmission" is
somewhat another name for our ignorance... but it is a
critical threshold. As soon as you have one case you don't
know where it came from, it is very likely that you have
more, and for each of those, you will have yet more... so
it isn't quite as benign as simple "ignorance" implies...<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Second: The virus will spread
exponentially until we reduce the average number of people
to be infected by a given infected person. This is what is
called R0. As people get infected and recover and
therefore become (very likely) immune, the number of
susceptible individuals in the population goes down, and the
R0 with it. If you encounter 10 people a day on average,
and have a 20% chance of infecting them but half of them are
immune, then your R0 becomes 10*.2/2 = 1.0 ! When R0
drops to 1.0, the exponential growth flattens to linear and
anything below 1.0 leads to an eventual dying out. A
widely deployed vaccine allows you to skip the step of
having to become infected, survive, and recover. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the meantime (before sufficient
herd-immunity is reached naturally, augmented by vaccines
eventually) we need to practice some amount of social
distancing to keep R0 down. As we learn more about the
modes of transmission, add early detection (through
widespread testing, and possibly wide-spread
citizen-reporting) then our best hope is significant social
distancing. Meanwhile, more severe social distancing
protects our most vulnerable (elderly and those with
conditions known to go badly with COVID19). We will see
properly vetted/tested anti-virals and symptom-reducers
(e.g. cytokine storm prevention) before a vaccine which will
reduce the number of people needing hospitalization as well
as mortality. And lastly, antibody/plasma transfusions may
help some of the more at-risk or critical workers have
temporary immunity while they wait for a vaccine.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Right now, many of us are isolated at the
individual, the couple or possibly the nuclear family unit.
In principle, once we believe we have isolated sufficiently
well to not have much risk of contagion and sufficiently
long to have either had symptoms or to have been infected
asymptomatically but recovered. This might mean, for
example, that if you and your wife and your children and
their children have all remained separated but isolated,
then you might be safe reuniting with them as long as NONE
OF YOU are mixing with a larger population. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">But like with the STD issue, all it takes
is one promiscuous (outside the group) person at the orgy to
ruin the "safe space". The larger the (extended) group,
the more chance someone will defect and bring it into the
group unexpectedly.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">So yes, much of what you call tourism
will be blunted/modified... so will casino gambling, church
attendance, public transit, etc. I believe that buses are
still running some places, but most passengers are likely
wearing gloves/masks, sitting one per seat-row and the staff
is wiping down hand-rails and other surfaces often.
Airlines will probably stand back up under similar
restrictions soon. Churches and maybe sporting events, and
theater as well. But probably not for (many?) months... <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I still remember when auditoriums and
movie theaters had ashtrays in the backs of seats... we
will probably remember fondly when seats were packed
side-by-by side and our great grandchildren will ask
"grandpa... why are there all those holes in the floor
between the seats? People didn't *really* sit so close did
they? Don't they know that isn't safe?" and "why weren't
you wearing your masks in all the old pictures?".<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hope this helps a little?<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">- Steve<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">Steve (Smith), <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I have always assumed that “community
transmission” is one of those bullshit terms that refers to
our own ignorance. If we were unable to find out how it got
transmitted then it was an instance of “community
transmission”. Am I wrong about that? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So, community transmission is just the
residue after we have failed at contact tracing. My
assumption is that until we have a vaccine, we have to
maintain sufficient social distancing to make rigorous
contact tracing (and isolation) possible. In other words, I
have to have contacted so few people (because of social
isolation) that when I get sick, all the people I have
contacted can be isolated for two weeks. Such a policy
might permit the reopening of offices on a alternative shift
basis and the re opening of some stores with policies
equivalent to those the food stores are adopting, but it
wont permit reopening of entertainment venues, hair
dressers, concerts, churches, lecture halls, bars,
festivals, large scale air travel, and other activities
that we think of when we think of “tourism”. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I WANT to think different, and therefore
I am interested in the fact that you seem to disagree with
me on this point. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steven A Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState
OneState/TwoState<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">Steve, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Perhaps we might talk about this on
Friday. I guess the questions are, <o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">“Can we eliminate community transfer?”
<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p>By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the
*source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number
of people each infected person infects... or the *exponent*
of the exponential growth) below 1.0... <o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">and, if so, “At what level of social
distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure
that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and
isolation is assured?”<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal">I would claim that the *quality* of
social distancing is very important... but those
"qualities" haven't been determined yet. In principle,
keeping <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"> Not clear how to do that in the blue
states if the red states are still going exponential. <o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal">Re: Balkanization<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the
Red States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they
will pay the price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by
the lower population densities and "enclave" nature of many
small towns... compared for example to big cities
connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from
multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their
curves more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser
urban/suburban landscapes. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage)
infections and deaths, but what goes with that is higher
herd-immunity. So Blue States might want to close their
borders to Red States during the first wave, but then the
Red States might want to close them the other direction when
"infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so
popular a few years ago because I felt it promoted
xenophobia and rapid dehumanization of "the other"... a
"friend" can become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a
splash of blood (or spittle in this case)? Or maybe we can
follow @POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"? then the battle
will be between Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots
stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Also, I would like to hear a lot of
wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during
this mess. <o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p>I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social
one. FOX and their most famous audience in the White House
are already making sounds against the idea of voting by mail
as A) Unamerican; B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats
cheat of course). I don't think it is an insurmountable
technical problem (vote by mail). Expanded "early voting"
can help a lot, as can absentee ballots. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case
of how refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing,
absentee, mail, etc.) will be politicized immediately. I'm
hoping that the remaining Democrat primaries and the
Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some of
that out *before* the main elections which will be much more
controversial.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle
on things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot...
though I can imagine there will be more demand for
early/absentee voting in all venues.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>- STeve<o:p></o:p></p>
<p> <o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">N<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steven A Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop:
After the Wave<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>SG<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I found Meyers' talks from the Fall
which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just
linked those! I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the
hill" are on this with full attention.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Did anyone else watch this 2 hour
presentation? I'm working my way through it now in the
background.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">SS<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I mentioned this on the close of
Virtual Friam today:<br>
<a
href="https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic</a> <br>
<br>
The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and
social distancing will hopefully bend the curve
downward (after far too high a price is paid). But
what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what
way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers
from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies
for both public health and economic recovery and
answered questions from the SFI community. This was
the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will
be convened to address this crisis. <br>
<br>
Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology,
University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los
Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan
School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi,
Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI
Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">_______________________________________________________________________<br>
<a
href="mailto:stephen.guerin@simtable.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">Stephen.Guerin@Simtable.com</a>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">CEO, Simtable <a
href="http://www.simtable.com/"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.simtable.com</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">1600 Lena St
#D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505 <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">office:
(505)995-0206 <span
style="font-size:9.5pt">mobile:
(505)577-5828</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:9.5pt">twitter:
@simtable</span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:9.5pt"><a
href="http://zoom.com/j/5055775828"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">zoom.com/j/5055775828</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
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<pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre>
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<pre>to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></pre>
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<pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></pre>
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<pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></pre>
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
archives: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
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