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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p><a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america">https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america</a> <o:p></o:p></p><p>This analysis seems stunningly optimistic, given that by their own account the social distancing in the US has been lame by comparison with, say, France, which is having a heluva time. <o:p></o:p></p><p>From their FAQ/;<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b>Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?</b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.<o:p></o:p></p><p><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>