<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">Also maybe of interest, and with more detail, from JAMA:<div class=""><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=content-shareicons&utm_content=article_engagement&utm_medium=social&utm_term=030620#.XmISXNOJbgY.twitter" class="">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=content-shareicons&utm_content=article_engagement&utm_medium=social&utm_term=030620#.XmISXNOJbgY.twitter</a></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">This was linked in a financial times article here from the google search string I mentioned earlier.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">E</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Apr 9, 2020, at 3:20 AM, <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" class="">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" class="">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><div class="WordSection1" style="page: WordSection1; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Hi, Eric<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Taiwan BETTER than China!? That’s something, isn’t it? Isn’t there some real hope in that?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Where do I go to learn in detail about Taiwan’s response.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Nick<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Nicholas Thompson<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Clark University<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" class="">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" class="">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><div style="border-style: solid none none; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top-color: rgb(225, 225, 225); padding: 3pt 0in 0in;" class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><b class="">From:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" class="">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">On Behalf Of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b>David Eric Smith<br class=""><b class="">Sent:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:53 PM<br class=""><b class="">To:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" class="">friam@redfish.com</a>><br class=""><b class="">Subject:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div class=""><blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class="" type="cite"><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places? <span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></span></div></blockquote><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">I would bet very high odds that is not the case.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">They have probably greatly reduced the caseload. Friends there say they are rebuilding daily activities (up in Beijing, which was not by far the hardest hit) slowly, carefully, and incrementally. But not by any stretch is life normal, or expected to revert to normal in any foreseeable future.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">There was an NYT piece a few days ago saying that the intelligence dept. is trying to get accurate case numbers because they don’t believe the central government is reporting either honestly or accurately. That seems a decent bet. And to the extent that this info is not coming from trump stooges at the top, but being leaked from somewhere in the middle ranks, it is probably coming from committed professionals who are concerned with what is true.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">My guess is that the forensics of what is going on in China will take a long time to perform, and probably important information will be suppressed until it can be lost forever. So for some of it ignoramus et ignoramibus.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">All that said, the clamp-down was impressive, and probably fairly effective. Not a gold standard like Taiwan, but better than any of the major countries in the west, and with a much larger population.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Eric<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></div></div><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; 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