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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Eric, ‘n all, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The Pandemic Cartoon,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling">https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> is REALLY GOOD. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>And that message comes through even tho the cartoon NEVER reminds us of the stupendous irrationality of non-linear systems. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>But one thing we do know. We have bent the curve in Santa Fe. Please see attachment. Now, mind you, I still think there are about 100 active cases of the virus in the County at the moment and until we know where each of those people is and what she/he is doing, we had better stay home and stay masked. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric Charles<br><b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 14, 2020 10:24 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Most of you probably know the site Five Thirty Eight, which emerged over the last few election cycles as the top nerdy polling / public-opinion-modeling site. Some of you know SMBC, which has spent quite a few years towards the top of the pantheon of nerd comics. Well, the two collaborated on a long-form comic explaining why it is so hard to get stable models of Covid-19. It is really well done. If you have been struggling to explain to people how models like this work and why they are challenging, I highly recommend you try sharing this with them:<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="goog_1530855300"><br></a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling">https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><br clear=all><o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><br clear=all>-----------<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.<br>Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>American University - Adjunct Instructor<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>