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Nick writes:</div>
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< The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk. ></div>
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<div>Another perspective on prediction.<br>
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<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10670-019-00165-8" id="LPNoLP279157">https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10670-019-00165-8</a><br>
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size:11pt" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> on behalf of thompnickson2@gmail.com <thompnickson2@gmail.com><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 14, 2020 11:07 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19</font>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">Eric, ‘n all, </p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">The Pandemic Cartoon,</p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling">https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling</a></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">is REALLY GOOD. </p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk. </p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">And that message comes through even tho the cartoon NEVER reminds us of the stupendous irrationality of non-linear systems.
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">But one thing we do know. We have bent the curve in Santa Fe. Please see attachment. Now, mind you, I still think there are about 100 active cases of the virus in the County at the moment and until we know where each of those people
is and what she/he is doing, we had better stay home and stay masked. </p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">Nick</p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">Clark University</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of
</b>Eric Charles<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, April 14, 2020 10:24 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19</p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">Most of you probably know the site Five Thirty Eight, which emerged over the last few election cycles as the top nerdy polling / public-opinion-modeling site. Some of you know SMBC, which has spent quite a few years towards the top of
the pantheon of nerd comics. Well, the two collaborated on a long-form comic explaining why it is so hard to get stable models of Covid-19. It is really well done. If you have been struggling to explain to people how models like this work and why they are
challenging, I highly recommend you try sharing this with them:</p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling">https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling</a></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.<br>
Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist</p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal">American University - Adjunct Instructor</p>
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