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<p>Nick-</p>
<p>Interesting (apt?) choice of poker-hands to attribute to "the
Hillary" and to "the Donald".</p>
<p>- Sieve<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 4/18/20 12:31 PM,
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal">So, Eric [Charles], <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">What exactly were the <i>practicial</i>
consequences of declaring that Hillary was “probably” going to
win the election or that a full house was probably going to
win the pot given she lost and the dealer held a strait
flush? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric
Charles<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Saturday, April 18, 2020 12:06 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext"
style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt">-------- Nick says
--------- Nate constantly says that making such predictions
is, strictly speaking, not his job. As long as what happens
falls within the error of his prediction, he feels justified
in having made it. He will say things like, "actually we
were right." I would prefer him to say, "Actually we were
wrong, <i>but I would make the same prediction under the
same circumstances the next time.” </i>In other words,
the right procedure produced, on this occasion, a wrong
result. -----------------<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext"
style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext"
style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt">Well... so this
connects a lot with poker, which I am in the process of
teaching the 10 year old... If I recall, Nate was giving
Trump a 1/3 chance of victory, which was much higher than
most of the other models at the time. You can hardly fault
someone because something happened that they said would
happen 2/3 of the time. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext"
style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext"
style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt">If a poker player
has a model that predicts a given play to be the best
option, because it will work 2/3 of the time, and this one
time it doesn't work, that isn't grounds to say the model
failed. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext"
style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext"
style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"> YOU want the
modelers to have models that rarely give anything close to
even odds. So do I, so I'm sympathetic. But the modeler
might prefer a more honest model, that includes more
uncertainty, for a wide variety of reasons. <o:p></o:p></p>
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-----------<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.<br>
Department of Justice -
Personnel Psychologist<o:p></o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">American University -
Adjunct Instructor<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On Sat, Apr 18, 2020 at 12:17 PM uǝlƃ <span
style="font-family:"Segoe UI
Emoji",sans-serif">☣</span> <<a
href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">gepropella@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">I think it's interesting that you
seemed to have *flipped* your thinking within the same
post. You restate my point about conceptual metaphors by
saying models/computation merely *justifies*
decisions/rhetoric. Then a few paragraphs later, you
suggest that's conflating language with thought.<br>
<br>
My diatribe to Nick was that he *uses* metaphors/models
simply to impute his conceptual structure onto Nate.
Nick's decision is already made and he wants Nate's work
to justify it. And the way he *imputes* his conceptual
structure into Nate's work is through the sloppy use of
metaphor. Then when Nate tells Nick (indirectly) that
Nick's wrong about what Nate's done, Nick rejects Nate's
objection.<br>
<br>
I'm picking on Nick, of course. We all do it. I wish we
all did it much less.<br>
<br>
On 4/18/20 6:14 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:<br>
> But frankly as often as not, I saw<br>
> them use our work to *justify* the decision they had
already made or<br>
> were leaning heavily toward, *apparently* based on
larger strategic<br>
> biases. <br>
> <br>
> [...]<br>
> <br>
> As for your gut-level (and often well articulated)
mistrust of<br>
> "metaphorical thinking", you may conflate a belief
(such as mine) that<br>
> language is metaphorical at it's base with being a
"metaphorical<br>
> thinker". Metaphor gets a bad rap/rep perhaps
because of the<br>
> "metaphorical license" often taken in creative arts
(albeit for a<br>
> different and possibly higher purpose). <br>
<br>
-- <br>
<span style="font-family:"Segoe UI
Emoji",sans-serif">☣</span> uǝlƃ<br>
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