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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>But Eric, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=quotation>If, over his career, Nate's site gives a 2/3 vs 1/3 split 1,000 ti mes, and something near 333 times the 1/3 split wins, I think he gets to declare himself accurate<span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>How is that practicial? I.e., how can we base a practice on it? Nate’s career isn’t over yet? <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric Charles<br><b>Sent:</b> Saturday, April 18, 2020 1:59 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>If, over his career, Nate's site gives a 2/3 vs 1/3 split 1,000 ti mes, and something near 333 times the 1/3 split wins, I think he gets to declare himself accurate. <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Similarly, a modern poker pro isn't trying to guess what the opponent has. The modern player is trying to put the opponent on a spread of possible hands under the circumstances. The outcome of any given hand doesn't matter, and there is an expected amount of variance in performance even under a game-theoretic perfect strategy. The question is whether the strategy pays out in the long run, and whether the player has a deep enough bankroll (in comparison to the stakes they are playing at) to ride out the variance. If you think the pro is doing something else, you probably are still a very long way from getting to that level. <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><br clear=all><o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><br clear=all>-----------<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.<br>Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>American University - Adjunct Instructor<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Sat, Apr 18, 2020 at 2:32 PM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>So, Eric [Charles], <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>What exactly were the <i>practicial</i> consequences of declaring that Hillary was “probably” going to win the election or that a full house was probably going to win the pot given she lost and the dealer held a strait flush? <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Nick<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric Charles<br><b>Sent:</b> Saturday, April 18, 2020 12:06 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=gmail-m-6519465973463056800gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'>-------- Nick says --------- Nate constantly says that making such predictions is, strictly speaking, not his job. As long as what happens falls within the error of his prediction, he feels justified in having made it. He will say things like, "actually we were right." I would prefer him to say, "Actually we were wrong, <i>but I would make the same prediction under the same circumstances the next time.” </i>In other words, the right procedure produced, on this occasion, a wrong result. -----------------<o:p></o:p></p><p class=gmail-m-6519465973463056800gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=gmail-m-6519465973463056800gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'>Well... so this connects a lot with poker, which I am in the process of teaching the 10 year old... If I recall, Nate was giving Trump a 1/3 chance of victory, which was much higher than most of the other models at the time. You can hardly fault someone because something happened that they said would happen 2/3 of the time. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=gmail-m-6519465973463056800gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=gmail-m-6519465973463056800gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'>If a poker player has a model that predicts a given play to be the best option, because it will work 2/3 of the time, and this one time it doesn't work, that isn't grounds to say the model failed. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=gmail-m-6519465973463056800gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=gmail-m-6519465973463056800gmail-m523368810771950236msoplaintext style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'> YOU want the modelers to have models that rarely give anything close to even odds. So do I, so I'm sympathetic. But the modeler might prefer a more honest model, that includes more uncertainty, for a wide variety of reasons. <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><br clear=all>-----------<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.<br>Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>American University - Adjunct Instructor<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>On Sat, Apr 18, 2020 at 12:17 PM uǝlƃ <span style='font-family:"Segoe UI Emoji",sans-serif'>☣</span> <<a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com" target="_blank">gepropella@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>I think it's interesting that you seemed to have *flipped* your thinking within the same post. You restate my point about conceptual metaphors by saying models/computation merely *justifies* decisions/rhetoric. Then a few paragraphs later, you suggest that's conflating language with thought.<br><br>My diatribe to Nick was that he *uses* metaphors/models simply to impute his conceptual structure onto Nate. Nick's decision is already made and he wants Nate's work to justify it. And the way he *imputes* his conceptual structure into Nate's work is through the sloppy use of metaphor. Then when Nate tells Nick (indirectly) that Nick's wrong about what Nate's done, Nick rejects Nate's objection.<br><br>I'm picking on Nick, of course. We all do it. I wish we all did it much less.<br><br>On 4/18/20 6:14 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:<br>> But frankly as often as not, I saw<br>> them use our work to *justify* the decision they had already made or<br>> were leaning heavily toward, *apparently* based on larger strategic<br>> biases. <br>> <br>> [...]<br>> <br>> As for your gut-level (and often well articulated) mistrust of<br>> "metaphorical thinking", you may conflate a belief (such as mine) that<br>> language is metaphorical at it's base with being a "metaphorical<br>> thinker". Metaphor gets a bad rap/rep perhaps because of the<br>> "metaphorical license" often taken in creative arts (albeit for a<br>> different and possibly higher purpose). <br><br>-- <br><span style='font-family:"Segoe UI Emoji",sans-serif'>☣</span> uǝlƃ<br><br>.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/<br>FRIAM-COMIC</a> <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal>.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>