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<div style="font-family:Arial;">Not directly relevant, but another
good sci-fi about genetics — Daniel Suarez' Change Agent.<br>
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<div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br>
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<p>Thanks...</p>
<p>I read that earlier this year in response to your general
reference to Suarez (starting with Delta-V?) and my body and soul
*still* ache from the memories!<br>
</p>
<p>and Marcus... yes, GATTACA didn't (apparently) anticipate CRISPR</p>
<p>Trans/Posthumanist Utopias have a strong flavor of Dystopia for
me... <br>
</p>
<p>Eloi & Morlocks</p>
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cite="mid:ab299ecb-7131-4518-bd6c-89e3fe33f26e@www.fastmail.com">
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<div>On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, at 10:41 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:<br>
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<p>Marcus -<br>
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<p><br>
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<p>I believe that Andrew Niccol DID imagine something like that:<br>
</p>
<p><br>
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<p>I wish I had a pithy preamble for this dystopian BioPunk
reference, but perhaps it speaks for itself?<br>
</p>
<p><br>
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<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca</a><br>
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<p><br>
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<p>- Steve<br>
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<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:BY5PR11MB3896BDC21ABF3D0EBE904599C5D70@BY5PR11MB3896.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
<div style="font-family:Calibri, Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);">Steve writes:<br>
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sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>
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<div style="font-family:Calibri, Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);">< The
whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same
virus with *roughly* what is the same human
phenotype/metabolism in a myriad of *roughly* the same modes
of human organization. ><br>
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<div style="font-family:Calibri, Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>
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<div style="font-family:Calibri, Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);">There are
hundreds of common HLA alleles across humans. In a diverse
country like the US, with hundreds of thousands of positive
cases and tens of thousands of deaths the hundreds of
alleles would be well sampled. Too bad our medical
surveillance is so bad, and made worse by the moron.
Imagine if everyone had full genome sequencing and every
viral sample was deep sequenced. <br>
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<div style="font-family:Calibri, Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>
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<div style="font-family:Calibri, Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);">Marcus<br>
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<div><span class="font" style="font-family:Calibri,
sans-serif;"><span class="colour" style="color:rgb(0, 0,
0);"><b>From:</b> Friam <a
class="qt-moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
on behalf of Steven A Smith <a
class="qt-moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><sasmyth@swcp.com></a><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Sunday, April 19, 2020 10:11 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a class="qt-moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a> <a
class="qt-moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why</span></span>
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<pre class="qt-x_moz-quote-pre">One way to address the N/A issue is to repeatedly perturb the real-world system so as to elicit those correlations. When that is practical..
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<div><br>
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<p>We are, in a time of real-world system perturbation,
right now. The whole world is responding to what is
*roughly* the same virus with *roughly* what is the same
human phenotype/metabolism in a myriad of *roughly* the
same modes of human organization. This IS a testbed of
human (-system?) response to a widespread, somewhat
invisible threat. From Wuhan to Singapore to Italy to
Iran to Sweden to Germany to NYC to WA State to the Navajo
Nation to Florida's beaches, this IS a huge coupled
systems dynamics/agent-model executed in real-time by
real-people with real casualties and real consequences.
<br>
</p>
<p>We are, to varying degrees (collectively) recording the
results of these "experiments" and if we are lucky (or
smart, or both) we will do some post-game analysis
intended to understand more-better how best to
(self-)organize around a (nearly) existential world-scale
threat. And to the extent this is a game that will never
end, we have to begin the analysis while we cope with it's
consequences. Feels a bit like the models pof Physics
Interreality.<br>
</p>
<p><a
href="https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201"
moz-do-not-send="true">
https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201</a><br>
</p>
<p>Hanging too aggressive of a model on this (or collecting
the data against too premature of a model) will reduce
the utility of such data gathering and analysis.
Whatever the dual of overfitting a model is?
Overmodeling? Premature Modeling?<br>
</p>
<p>What I'm looking (askance) to(ward) Pearl for is a better
way of rapidly constructing, maintaining, revising as
generic of a model as possible in response to "this
moment". Four months ago we should have been interested
in models of how one limits a virus such as COVID19
getting a foothold in this country. One month ago we
should have been interested in how one limits COVID19
(with new understanding of it's virility, it's fatality,
it's symptoms, it's mode of spread) once it HAS a
foothold, now we are faced with trying to understand how
to cope with it once it is pervasive in our population
whilst continuing/returning to "business as usual" and in
another thread, I'm encouraging that we "try to
plan/consider/think-about" what we want to do with this
somewhat "blank slate" (our ass?) we are having handed to
us. <br>
</p>
<p>And how to think about this without premature modeling...
what I think I was railing (whining/pushing-back) about
with Dave on the Bellamyist thread earlier this morning.<br>
</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
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<pre class="qt-x_moz-quote-pre">On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:33 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ <a class="qt-x_moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com" moz-do-not-send="true"><gepropella@gmail.com></a> wrote:
Well, the argument I often end up making is that you can do a kind of face validation with the fake data. Show it to someone who's used to dealing with that sort of data and if the fake data looks a lot like the data they normally deal with, then maybe more data-taking isn't necessary. If it looks fake to the "expert", then more data-taking is definitely needed.
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<pre class="qt-x_moz-quote-pre">On 4/19/20 8:29 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data. If it is high-dimensional it will be under-sampled. Seems better to me to measure or simulate more so that the joint distribution can be realistic. And if you can do that there is no reason to infer the joint distribution because you *have* it.
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<pre class="qt-x_moz-quote-pre">On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:18 AM, Frank Wimberly <a class="qt-x_moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" moz-do-not-send="true"><wimberly3@gmail.com></a> wrote:
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Going back and forth: If you infer the causal graph from observational data you can use that graph to simulate data with the same joint distribution as the original data.
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