<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"></head><body dir="auto"><div dir="auto">"I think it would be wise to watch the evolution of the virus over time within people and across people"</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Scientists do this already, and they found out for instance that most NY cases came from Europe, not from China directly. Carl Zimmer reported about it in the NY Times. This is the article Donald misunderstood...</div><div dir="auto">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">..so that Carl had to correct him</div><div dir="auto">https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1249132628755787782</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">-J.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div id="composer_signature" dir="auto"><div style="font-size:85%;color:#575757" dir="auto"><br></div></div><div><br></div><div style="font-size:100%;color:#000000" dir="auto"><!-- originalMessage --><div>-------- Original message --------</div><div>From: Marcus Daniels <marcus@snoutfarm.com> </div><div>Date: 4/19/20 21:50 (GMT+01:00) </div><div>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> </div><div>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why </div><div><br></div></div>
<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal">Roger directs us to the story about Biohub:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">< It was also different, in an important way. The commercial labs are set up to take in the samples and spit out a simple answer: positive or negative. They aren’t set up, as the Biohub is, to sequence the genome of every positive specimen
and look for variations among them. As it moves through the population, the virus replicates and, as DeRisi says, “every time you replicate something there is a chance of an error.” He’s already found tiny differences from one coronavirus genome to the next
— not so great that it changes the essential nature of the virus but noticeable nevertheless. ><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I think it would be wise to watch the evolution of the virus over time within people and across people. I’ve heard experts argue it is slowly mutating, but I’ve personally seen deep sequence data (just from Genbank) reveal other variants.
The stakes are high enough that shortcuts seem like a bad idea to me. And the technology exists to do the deep sequencing. That’s good point IMO about how Quest and LabCorp are designed to do positive/negative tests. Imagine the disaster that happens
if the tests become fragile, like the CDC tests were..<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Marcus<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> on behalf of Roger Critchlow <rec@elf.org><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Date: </b>Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 12:30 PM<br>
<b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">UCSF has something like this, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-17/chan-zuckerberg-biohub-is-ready-for-coronavirus-tests-to-come">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-17/chan-zuckerberg-biohub-is-ready-for-coronavirus-tests-to-come</a>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">-- rec --<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 1:40 PM Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<div id="gmail-m_2474196255453137278divRplyFwdMsg">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dave writes:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">< Marcus said, "Imagine if everyone had full genome sequencing and every viral sample was deep sequenced." Iceland has something close to this already. ><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><a href="https://www.decode.com/publications/" target="_blank">https://www.decode.com/publications/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Marcus<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal">.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">
bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">
http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>