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<p>Marcus -</p>
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<p>I believe that Andrew Niccol DID imagine something like that:</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>I wish I had a pithy preamble for this dystopian BioPunk
reference, but perhaps it speaks for itself?</p>
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<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca</a></p>
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<p><br>
</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
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Steve writes:</div>
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< The whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same
virus with *roughly* what is the same human phenotype/metabolism
in a myriad of *roughly* the same modes of human organization.
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There are hundreds of common HLA alleles across humans. In a
diverse country like the US, with hundreds of thousands of
positive cases and tens of thousands of deaths the hundreds of
alleles would be well sampled. Too bad our medical
surveillance is so bad, and made worse by the moron. Imagine if
everyone had full genome sequencing and every viral sample was
deep sequenced.
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Marcus<br>
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font style="font-size:11pt"
face="Calibri, sans-serif" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> on behalf of Steven A Smith
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"><sasmyth@swcp.com></a><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Sunday, April 19, 2020 10:11 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why</font>
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<pre class="x_moz-quote-pre">One way to address the N/A issue is to repeatedly perturb the real-world system so as to elicit those correlations. When that is practical.. </pre>
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<br>
<p>We are, in a time of real-world system perturbation, right
now. The whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the
same virus with *roughly* what is the same human
phenotype/metabolism in a myriad of *roughly* the same modes
of human organization. This IS a testbed of human (-system?)
response to a widespread, somewhat invisible threat. From
Wuhan to Singapore to Italy to Iran to Sweden to Germany to
NYC to WA State to the Navajo Nation to Florida's beaches,
this IS a huge coupled systems dynamics/agent-model executed
in real-time by real-people with real casualties and real
consequences.
<br>
</p>
<p>We are, to varying degrees (collectively) recording the
results of these "experiments" and if we are lucky (or smart,
or both) we will do some post-game analysis intended to
understand more-better how best to (self-)organize around a
(nearly) existential world-scale threat. And to the extent
this is a game that will never end, we have to begin the
analysis while we cope with it's consequences. Feels a bit
like the models pof Physics Interreality.</p>
<p><a
href="https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201"
moz-do-not-send="true">
https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201</a>
</p>
<p>Hanging too aggressive of a model on this (or collecting the
data against too premature of a model) will reduce the
utility of such data gathering and analysis. Whatever the
dual of overfitting a model is? Overmodeling? Premature
Modeling?<br>
</p>
<p>What I'm looking (askance) to(ward) Pearl for is a better way
of rapidly constructing, maintaining, revising as generic of a
model as possible in response to "this moment". Four months
ago we should have been interested in models of how one limits
a virus such as COVID19 getting a foothold in this country.
One month ago we should have been interested in how one limits
COVID19 (with new understanding of it's virility, it's
fatality, it's symptoms, it's mode of spread) once it HAS a
foothold, now we are faced with trying to understand how to
cope with it once it is pervasive in our population whilst
continuing/returning to "business as usual" and in another
thread, I'm encouraging that we "try to
plan/consider/think-about" what we want to do with this
somewhat "blank slate" (our ass?) we are having handed to
us. <br>
</p>
<p>And how to think about this without premature modeling...
what I think I was railing (whining/pushing-back) about with
Dave on the Bellamyist thread earlier this morning.</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite">
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<pre class="x_moz-quote-pre">On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:33 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ <a class="x_moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com" moz-do-not-send="true"><gepropella@gmail.com></a> wrote:
Well, the argument I often end up making is that you can do a kind of face validation with the fake data. Show it to someone who's used to dealing with that sort of data and if the fake data looks a lot like the data they normally deal with, then maybe more data-taking isn't necessary. If it looks fake to the "expert", then more data-taking is definitely needed.
</pre>
<blockquote type="cite">
<pre class="x_moz-quote-pre">On 4/19/20 8:29 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data. If it is high-dimensional it will be under-sampled. Seems better to me to measure or simulate more so that the joint distribution can be realistic. And if you can do that there is no reason to infer the joint distribution because you *have* it.
</pre>
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<pre class="x_moz-quote-pre">On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:18 AM, Frank Wimberly <a class="x_moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" moz-do-not-send="true"><wimberly3@gmail.com></a> wrote:
</pre>
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<pre class="x_moz-quote-pre">
Going back and forth: If you infer the causal graph from observational data you can use that graph to simulate data with the same joint distribution as the original data.
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