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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Frank -</div>
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cite="mid:CAA5dAfqJ+Z+1CxKXGZbH+b0Zvdu_c_GW3-OqCGFPQC76Ex7kBA@mail.gmail.com">
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<div dir="auto">Steve,
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<div dir="auto">I'm surprised you didn't find any posts by me in
your search for "causality" .</div>
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Actually I did find you, your voice was in that thread as well, and
in others. <br>
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cite="mid:CAA5dAfqJ+Z+1CxKXGZbH+b0Zvdu_c_GW3-OqCGFPQC76Ex7kBA@mail.gmail.com">
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<div dir="auto"> Usually, when someone says "correlation is not
causation" it triggers me. In the early 90s/late 80s there
were two teams working on inference of causal graphs from
observational data: Pearl et al at UCLA and Glymour et al at
Carnegie Mellon. They cooperated and developed algorithms
based on d-separation which was based on conditional
independence relations (correlation). Glymour et al's book is
"Causation, Prediction and Search". I implemented many
algorithms in Java for that group over a period of about 10
years and I was co-author of several papers.</div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
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<div dir="auto">Sorry for the narcissistic reaction.</div>
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<p>I am glad you spoke up immediately. If I had something
actionable to do with this right now, I would be consulting your
grounded experience, but also welcome your broader perspective. I
saw your references to Glymour and wish (also) that I had followed
that "back then". I think the first discussions I saw here were
as early as 2003? I snagged on the 2013 one because of Doug and
Tory's "voices" from the other side of the veil.<br>
</p>
<p>I was lead to Pearl's latest by a colleague who has been
encouraging me to look at the Pandemic Modeling challenge in a
somewhat different way than has been traditional. Essentially a
space-time network of causal implications ( I think) which would
be rich in post-hoc elaboration. The simplest SIR models are
challenged with not knowing nearly enough about the Infected in
particular, and even then after they have been Infectous for days
or even weeks. The recent hints (Santa Clara county?) that
infection rates may be 10x or higher than believed (a or sub or
crypto -symptomatic) demonstrate that acutely. My work of late
(other than SimTable) has been in the realm of trying to analyze
ensembles of predictive simulations. This is a logical next step
(forward and backward propogating data and constraints as they are
recorded/discovered/postulated) across space (populations) and
time.</p>
<p>More offline maybe?<br>
</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAA5dAfqJ+Z+1CxKXGZbH+b0Zvdu_c_GW3-OqCGFPQC76Ex7kBA@mail.gmail.com">
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<div dir="auto"><br>
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<div dir="auto">Frank<br>
<br>
<div data-smartmail="gmail_signature" dir="auto">---<br>
Frank C. Wimberly<br>
140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>
Santa Fe, NM 87505<br>
505 670-9918<br>
Santa Fe, NM</div>
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<br>
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<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 6:26 AM
Steven A Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br>
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<p>Glen -</p>
<p>I'm in the midst (early part) of Judea Pearl's "Book of
Why". <br>
</p>
<p>I had a vague memory of his earlier book: "Causality"
having been referenced if not discussed on this list.
Searching the archives, I discovered what I considered to
be quite a Pearl (NPI) circa 2013. In this long chain,
you recommended Pearl's "Causality" which I now wish I had
followed up on then. <br>
</p>
<p><a
href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/beyond-reductionism-twice-td7582273i20.html#a7582308"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/beyond-reductionism-twice-td7582273i20.html#a7582308</a></p>
<p>Among the many gems in the thread were the voices of two
of our deceased members, Doug Roberts and Tory Hughes.
Doug coined one of his classic lines about (paraphrase)
"being violently disinterested in the philosophy of
causation" (or complexity or agent-based-model-design).<br>
</p>
<p>After Nick's recent "violent disinterest in the Cult of
Feynman" and in particular to any quote that might imply
that birds are (paraphrase) "not first-class-citizens who
would in fact be interested in ornithology, if they were
given access to it", my eyes caught on your own quote (in
2013) of S. Ulam:</p>
<p><span
style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Geneva,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.44px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial">
"Talking about non-linear mathematics is like talking
about non-elephant</span><br
style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Geneva,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.44px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial">
<span
style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Geneva,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.44px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial">
zoology." -- Stanislaw Ulam</span></p>
<p><span
style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Geneva,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:13.44px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial">-
Steve (176)<br>
</span></p>
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<pre>Unfortunately, after a couple of attempts to read it, I couldn't understand anything in your post except this part. My previous post was just under 300 words. So, I decided to try to make the next one under that mark as well.
On 4/18/20 1:22 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
</pre>
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<pre>From whence (or wherest?) did you get your 300 word target?
</pre>
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<pre>you might not be alone in that... perhaps it was just gibberish. And likely more than three hundred words of it.
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