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<p class="MsoNormal">As a ballpark the receptor binding domain is 211 residues, so 20^211, however only a small part of it seems to be actively evolving. [1] (see Table 1)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.986398v1">https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.986398v1</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> on behalf of David Eric Smith <desmith@santafe.edu><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Date: </b>Monday, April 20, 2020 at 3:49 PM<br>
<b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] whackadoodles go mainstream!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">I do not believe that any of the "theories" about the origin have any purpose other than to point fingers, place blame. One reason for this would be to advance other arguments — typical conspiracy nonsense, Another would be to identify
a government or a lab or any entity with deep pockets. You can't sue a wet market.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9?fbclid=IwAR1vyx1SqreXoeVgFVKBIayEWGOgZn5IbXmx3-V4nsrWiIlrYvYHQW2TuLA">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9?fbclid=IwAR1vyx1SqreXoeVgFVKBIayEWGOgZn5IbXmx3-V4nsrWiIlrYvYHQW2TuLA</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">There is discussion in here about the kind of mosaic it is, and the nearest identified variants for different parts. I find this interesting as a question in evolutionary dynamics of either convergence or recombination. The question of
how “hard” an engineering problem it is to find non-local optimizers for various biding problems if you happen not to have templates in the same basin of attraction is an interesting question to me in methods of protein biochemistry. The question of what
level of sophistication we currently imagine is in use around the world is a potentially interesting question of sophistication versus availability of method, also practical if one works in threat defenses.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
It would be nice to believe that scientists are ethical people, and if the virus originated in a lab, and if there was a block of information about the virus, those aware of that information would find some way to smuggle it out, at least to WHO.<br>
<br>
davew<br>
<br>
<br>
On Mon, Apr 20, 2020, at 3:23 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">My main concern would be about their priorities: We should figure out
<br>
what to do about this rather than who to blame for it. If the original <br>
source were a lab that changes little right now compared to if it were <br>
a market. <br>
<br>
On 4/20/20, 1:51 PM, "Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ <span style="font-family:"Apple Color Emoji"">
☣</span>" <br>
<<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a> on behalf of
<a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com">gepropella@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
<br>
You can't *objectively* tell. That's the whole point. But what you <br>
can do is check your impressions against those of others. My personal <br>
impression is that this "article" is complete bullshit. I feel <br>
*certain* that at least some of the people here, if they read the whole <br>
article, will conclude the opposite.<br>
<br>
I won't list my bullshit triggers the article sets off. Bullshit <br>
replicates exponentially faster and more efficient than its debunking. <br>
So my debunking would be lost in the wind. But I can point to 1 easy <br>
step you can take:<br>
<br>
<a href="https://smmry.com/https:/project-evidence.github.io/#&SM_LENGTH=10">https://smmry.com/https://project-evidence.github.io/#&SM_LENGTH=10</a><br>
<br>
Play around with the length. It's interesting.<br>
<br>
On 4/20/20 1:12 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks for that link/reference. I appreciate that there ARE
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">such things as "influence operations" and Schneier's description is
<br>
helpful, but I guess I'm still not clear on how I can tell objectively <br>
that "project evidence" is up to that. To build my own strawman that <br>
maybe you can bolster up to more of a steelman:<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
1. I have a gut reaction to it that says "this feels like the <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">kind of conspiracy-theory the trolls-I-know-to-hate are likely to be
<br>
hatching".<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">2. The EPSTEIN thing is weird... I guess if they'd just removed
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">the reference and not referenced it, THAT would have been even more of
<br>
a hint that they were up to no good.<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">3. The tone of the introduction, etc. seems a bit "protest too
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">much"<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">4. The sheer bulk of the material without obvious additional
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">organization feels like a "dogpile" technique (ro maybe as you suggest
<br>
"baffle-em-with-bullshit" or TL;DR ?<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
I guess what I was asking for is whether you found any specific <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">elements or if there is a more specific (than my lame list above)
<br>
structural thing to question. I *didn't* follow the myriad references <br>
and validate them, and I *don't* have a broad enough understanding of <br>
the field to estimate how biased their list of articles is... if they <br>
are blatantly cherry picking or what?<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
When publication like this was much harder, the volume of <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">material was small enough that it seems like traditional journalists
<br>
could possibly keep up with more in-depth analysis?<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
I suppose rather than asking YOU if/how you have done its, or if <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt">I should go search for other critical analysis of this "project"... <br>
<br>
<br>
-- <br>
<span style="font-family:"Apple Color Emoji"">☣</span> uǝlƃ<br>
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