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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Marcus, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Thanks. What you propose seems feasible. It seems more feasible, in fact, than 300 million Americans staying in their houses for a month, and THAT has already happened. March Madness indeed!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Let’s see what happens in Georgia. And Sweden. Sweden seems to be trying a version of the controlled burn strategy. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Marcus Daniels<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, April 26, 2020 1:54 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Mawdel Tawk<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I think the modeling without priors occurs because of the failed surveillance. If there had been aggressive testing, contact tracing, and quarantining, the spread might be have been stopped, but, even if it were not, at least there would be case history stories that could be put into an agent-based model. Are spread rates on the subway different than at churches and sports events or Mardi Gras? There was no competent effort to do that, so modelers like Murray’s team fish for explanatory variables retrospectively. Such models could probably make precise predictions if millions of people had test kits arrive in the mail the first week, and Apple and Google coordinated to have them relay diagnosis information (via smartphones) to a central repository.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>From: </span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> on behalf of "<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>" <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>><br><b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Date: </b>Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 11:33 AM<br><b>To: </b>'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject: </b>[FRIAM] Mawdel Tawk<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal>Dear Wizards, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I commend to your attention a blog post from 538 in which Nate Silver talks with the guy who leads the University of Washington health metrics modeling operation. I understood barely one word in five, but the chief difference between them seems to be on the degree to which they rely on priors or curve fitting. You folks will, I predict, know what that means. Don’t hesitate to explain it to me. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/model-talk-forecasting-the-toll-of-covid-19/id1077418457?i=1000472325708">https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/model-talk-forecasting-the-toll-of-covid-19/id1077418457?i=1000472325708</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>