<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:#0563C1;
text-decoration:underline;}
span.EmailStyle20
{mso-style-type:personal-compose;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>To the Covid19 obsessives on the list,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I want to call you attention to the latest installment of the Jim Rutt Show, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/extra-key-covid-19-decisions-with-john-robb/id1470622572?i=1000472461724">https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/extra-key-covid-19-decisions-with-john-robb/id1470622572?i=1000472461724</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>There an idea is introduced that the rest of you are probably familiar with but was a new for me: that our politics has become not a red-blue politics (which would be more ideological and therefore more stable) but a consensus-reaction politics, in which, whatever consensus forms, a vehement counter- reaction forms in response to it. Rutt and his guest seemed to agree on something that I had also sensed: that the nation went into lockdown BEFORE anybody sent it into lockdown, i.e, a consensus emerged that the politicians just tagged along after. (“And then a miracle happened”?) <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>There is also some interesting talk about the “Swedish experiment”. (Was it here, or on the 538 thingy I sent you yesterday). The idea is that you can “safely” adopt a herd immunity strategy in any nation where the average age is under thirty. Sweden does not qualify. India does. The metaphor* with controlled burn is spookily apt. Here’s the 538 thingy again.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/model-talk-forecasting-the-toll-of-covid-19/id1077418457?i=1000472325708">https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/model-talk-forecasting-the-toll-of-covid-19/id1077418457?i=1000472325708</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I can’t imagine that any of you have the time to sit and listen to these, but I would love to hear comments if you do. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>*Stephen may assert that this is not a metaphor, but they are <i>the very same thing. </i>I LUST to have that argument, but not on this thread. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>