<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large">Here's an easy numerical example of why conditional probabilities as employed in Bayes Rule are important:</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large"><a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dx5FfTjJtV3E%26feature%3Dshare&data=02%7C01%7Ckelsey%40edc.pitt.edu%7Cd4539c648e544adc9a3608d7ec422ca0%7C9ef9f489e0a04eeb87cc3a526112fd0d%7C1%7C1%7C637237641268432573&sdata=sSVCqTqIkvlnbjX%2BoUoUxdPdt%2FolTIHHw%2FZiJzCgCMk%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank" style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5FfTjJtV3E&feature=share</a> </div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large"> <br></div><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>George Duncan</div><div>Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University<br><a href="http://georgeduncanart.com/" target="_blank">georgeduncanart.com</a></div><div>See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram</div>
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<div> <br>My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos.<br></div><div><br></div><div><h1 style="letter-spacing:-0.02em;margin:0px"><font size="2" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-weight:normal">"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion."</font></h1><div><span style="font-size:small;letter-spacing:-0.02em;line-height:1.125em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. </font></span></div><table width="85%" style="color:rgb(93,86,81);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:18px;margin:auto;border-collapse:collapse!important"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center"><p style="margin-top:4px;margin-bottom:12px"><font size="2">"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.</font></p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" style="font-size:13px;text-transform:uppercase"><p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:27px;color:rgb(146,146,146);text-align:center"><br></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>