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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Thanks, Steve, for the comment and link. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>My go-to, until the last few days, was a map the Times was putting up of doubling time by county. They clearly still have the data, and do produce it by state, but I can no longer find the national map, which was showing nicely the spread of the disease outward from urban areas. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Steven A Smith<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, May 6, 2020 9:31 AM<br><b>To:</b> friam@redfish.com<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p>Nick -<o:p></o:p></p><p><a href="https://rt.live/">https://rt.live/</a> <o:p></o:p></p><p>helps to illustrate some of Rachel's hair-on-fire. NOT because the absolute numbers are (or will be) outrageous, but because the *rates* are high. Take a look at the states who have R0 > 1.0 ... all midwest-plains. <o:p></o:p></p><p>If you have a small town with 0 cases, it is natural to not be "too worried" even if there are three or four small towns within 20 miles who have a case or two... their relative social distance from the international airport/high-density urban *hot spots* means they are *late* to the party AND the relatively small *absolute* numbers means their perception of the problem is lower. AND in fact, they might be able to tolerate higher rates BECAUSE of the perception. If 5 people in your community of 100 die of COVID19 maybe that is easier to accept than if 5000 out of your 100,000 die?<o:p></o:p></p><p>I think these subtleties/subjectives that get lost in the raw statistics are important but I don't know how to quantify them off the top of my head.<o:p></o:p></p><p>- Steve<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>On 5/6/20 9:24 AM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p>Hi, Everybody<o:p></o:p></p><p>This article greatly puzzled me because it seemed to eviscerate it self in the last few paragraphs. <o:p></o:p></p><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html</a> <o:p></o:p></p><p>My main concern here is the degree to which I am being deluded by my addiction to the Rachel Maddow Show. She is in HairOnFire mode about an impending epidemic in the plains states. She is particularly caustic about the bad judgement of plains states governors. But if the times charts are right, one can see (sort of) why those governors are not as alarmed as we smarty-pantses think they ought to be. There aren’t that many people dying full stop, even tho people ARE dying of covid. (Not to mention that most of the people who are dying of covid are poorish people working in meet packing plants.) What is this New Abnormal we seem to find ourselves in?<o:p></o:p></p><p>N<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><br><br><o:p></o:p></p><pre>.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></pre></blockquote></div></body></html>