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<p>This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to
accurately assess. <br>
</p>
<p>A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a
comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part
of the numerical differences to the main changed variable:
COVID-19. <br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:C37B04AE-FE95-4203-BB11-54ED89353BEF@snoutfarm.com">
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<p class="MsoNormal">I think that is a little pessimistic. If
you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with
each subject characterizing things like work history,
cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so
on. But they also have details on mortality and genomic
sequences. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> on behalf of Prof David
West <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm"><profwest@fastmail.fm></a><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
Coffee Group <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Date: </b>Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM<br>
<b>To: </b><a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">"friam@redfish.com"</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus
Toll in Each State? - The New York Times<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">When we
have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will
be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models
and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex
to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological
and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">And no
one will look at variations in individual and group
(10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a
"function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the
"explanation" for those anomalies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">No
grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield,
had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves.
Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never
empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of
these two counties and any other two counties in the US
with similar populations and population
density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for
this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the
"reason" almost immediately.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">I predict
similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and
most importantly variations in death rates among those
infected. And, the "reason" will again be
cultural/behavioral.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">davew<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, <a
href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt" id="qt">
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">Doesn’t doubling time handle that
problem? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">N<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">Emeritus Professor of Ethology
and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in
0in;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-left-color:currentcolor;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of
</b>Steven A Smith<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, May 6,
2020 2:00 PM<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>To:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] What
Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The
New York Times<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">My brother lives in Dahlonega,
Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map
surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta
dominates the population of the State. Southwest
Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia,
unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural
African Americans.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">This just underscores how hard it is
to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the
point, numerators without denominators. At least some
of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are
not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a
visual estimation of "slope". <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43
PM Roger Critchlow <<a href="mailto:rec@elf.org"
moz-do-not-send="true">rec@elf.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC
1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt;border-top-color:currentcolor;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1">
<div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid
#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt;border-top-color:currentcolor;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1">
<p class="qt-msonormal1">Hall County is a county
located in the north central portion of the U.S.
state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the
population was 179,684. The county seat is
Gainesville.<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"><a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/</a> provides
maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers
and per 100000 population. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">-- rec --<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="qt-msonormal1">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at
3:18 PM uǝlƃ <span class="font"><span
style="font-family:"Apple Color
Emoji"">☣</span></span> <<a
href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">gepropella@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid
#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt;border-top-color:currentcolor;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hall: 20,441<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">DeKalb: 759,297<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, <a
href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">
thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">> Glen, those Hall/King
comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp!
What is the population of the two counties? <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">-- <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="font"><span
style="font-family:"Apple Color
Emoji"">☣</span></span> uǝlƃ<o:p></o:p></p>
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