<div dir="ltr">The denominator is the elephant in the room that nobody seems to want to talk about. Without knowing how many people in the population at large are infected, how the hell can we learn anything about how serious Covid-19 is? Without a doubt, a large percentage of the people who are hospitalized for it are really screwed (approaching 5% death rate? or is it more?). But unless we know how many people have it but have no symptoms or minor symptoms, It's as if we were to say that driving is horribly dangerous because 10% of the people who go to the ER because of head-on crashes die, so nobody should drive. Where are the large scale random sampling efforts? A few billion dollars would go a long way towards periodically testing a randomly selected million people, then following the ones who test positive with follow-up testing to see how the disease progresses.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 2:59 PM Steven A Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p><br>
</p>
<div>On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County,
Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a
hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State.
Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia,
unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African
Americans. <br>
</div>
</blockquote>
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute
numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.
At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are
not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual
estimation of "slope". <br>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM
Roger Critchlow <<a href="mailto:rec@elf.org" target="_blank">rec@elf.org</a>> wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><span>Hall
County is a county located in the north central portion
of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the
population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.</span></blockquote>
<div><span><br>
</span></div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/" target="_blank">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/</a> provides
maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per
100000 population. <span><br>
</span></div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>-- rec --</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><span><br>
</span></div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at
3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <<a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com" target="_blank">gepropella@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Hall: 20,441<br>
DeKalb: 759,297<br>
<br>
On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>
wrote:<br>
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty
dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two
counties? <br>
<br>
-- <br>
☣ uǝlƃ<br>
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-- <br>
<div dir="ltr">Frank Wimberly<br>
140 Calle Ojo Feliz<br>
Santa Fe, NM 87505<br>
505 670-9918</div>
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