<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">There was an article on this, I think NYT, I think sometime last week. So some group is currently doing that on some data set. I too would like to see it done more comprehensively and systematically by some group.<div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Probably I saw the article because somebody posted it to this list. Slap me when I wake back up.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Eric</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On May 7, 2020, at 12:01 PM, Joe Spinden <<a href="mailto:js@qri.us" class="">js@qri.us</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><p style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class="">This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br class=""></p><p style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class="">A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><br class=""></p><p style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><br class=""></p><p style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><br class=""></p><p style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class="">On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:<br class=""></p><blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:C37B04AE-FE95-4203-BB11-54ED89353BEF@snoutfarm.com" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><div class="WordSection1" style="page: WordSection1;"><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on. But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="border-style: solid none none; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top-color: rgb(181, 196, 223); padding: 3pt 0in 0in;" class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><b class=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;" class="">From:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></b><span style="font-size: 12pt;" class="">Friam<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>on behalf of Prof David West<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;"><profwest@fastmail.fm></a><br class=""><b class="">Reply-To:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;"><friam@redfish.com></a><br class=""><b class="">Date:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b>Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM<br class=""><b class="">To:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b><a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;">"friam@redfish.com"</a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;"><friam@redfish.com></a><br class=""><b class="">Subject:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b>Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class="">When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class="">And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class="">No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class="">I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class="">davew<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></span></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" moz-do-not-send="true" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><blockquote id="qt" style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem? <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">N<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Nicholas Thompson<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Clark University<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" moz-do-not-send="true" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);" class="">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" moz-do-not-send="true" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);" class="">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div class=""><div style="border-style: solid none none; border-top-width: 1pt; border-color: rgb(225, 225, 225) currentcolor currentcolor; padding: 3pt 0in 0in; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><b class="">From:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Friam<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">On Behalf Of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b>Steven A Smith<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><b class="">Sent:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><b class="">To:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;">friam@redfish.com</a><o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><b class="">Subject:</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></div></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div><p class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></p><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></blockquote><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><blockquote style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt;" class=""><div class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <<a href="mailto:rec@elf.org" moz-do-not-send="true" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">rec@elf.org</a>> wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><blockquote style="border-style: none none none solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-color: currentcolor currentcolor currentcolor rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 0in 0in 0in 6pt; margin: 5pt 0in 5pt 4.8pt; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1;" class=""><div class=""><blockquote style="border-style: none none none solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-color: currentcolor currentcolor currentcolor rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 0in 0in 0in 6pt; margin: 5pt 0in 5pt 4.8pt; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1;" class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.<o:p class=""></o:p></div></blockquote><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/</a> provides maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population. <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">-- rec --<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> <o:p class=""></o:p></div><div class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="font"><span class="">☣</span></span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><<a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">gepropella@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><blockquote style="border-style: none none none solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-color: currentcolor currentcolor currentcolor rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 0in 0in 0in 6pt; margin: 5pt 0in 5pt 4.8pt; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Hall: 20,441<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">DeKalb: 759,297<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">On 5/6/20 12:08 PM,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline;" class="">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>wrote:<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties? <o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">--<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><span class="font"><span class="">☣</span></span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>uǝlƃ<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<o:p class=""></o:p></div></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; 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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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</pre></blockquote><pre class="moz-signature" cols="72" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">--
Joe
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