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<p class="MsoNormal">Death is a pretty unambiguous indicator, and there are standard codes found in electronic health records.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICD-10<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <wimberly3@gmail.com><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Date: </b>Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 9:22 PM<br>
<b>To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt">Statistics + pathogenesis would be ideal but the latter is still not fully understood?<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">---<br>
Frank C. Wimberly<br>
140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>
Santa Fe, NM 87505<br>
<br>
505 670-9918<br>
Santa Fe, NM<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On Wed, May 6, 2020, 10:16 PM Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">If there was ever a time statistical inference could work, it is when there are millions of infected people, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and a database that tracks biological
and behavioral things about them.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From:
</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> on behalf of Joe Spinden <<a href="mailto:js@qri.us" target="_blank">js@qri.us</a>><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Date: </b>Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 8:02 PM<br>
<b>To: </b>"<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>" <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p>This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function,
mental health, noise pollution and so on. But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From:
</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam <a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">
<friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> on behalf of Prof David West <a href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm" target="_blank">
<profwest@fastmail.fm></a><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">
<friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Date: </b>Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM<br>
<b>To: </b><a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">"friam@redfish.com"</a>
<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of
the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture.
And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked,
absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon.
A cultural investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And,
the "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">davew</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">N<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steven A Smith<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b>To:</b>
<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration.
Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least some of the charts of absolute numbers
(as long as they are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of "slope".
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <<a href="mailto:rec@elf.org" target="_blank">rec@elf.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is Gainesville.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/" target="_blank">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/</a> provides maps of
deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">-- rec --<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ
<span class="m-1891302772098081661font"><span style="font-family:"Apple Color Emoji"">☣</span></span> <<a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com" target="_blank">gepropella@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Hall: 20,441<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">DeKalb: 759,297<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">On 5/6/20 12:08 PM,
<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two counties? <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">--
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span class="m-1891302772098081661font"><span style="font-family:"Apple Color Emoji"">☣</span></span> uǝlƃ<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6
<a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">unsubscribe
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">archives:
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">FRIAM-COMIC
<a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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</blockquote>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="m-1891302772098081661qt-msonormal1">--<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Frank Wimberly<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">140 Calle Ojo Feliz<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Santa Fe, NM 87505<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">505 670-9918<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New",serif">.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New",serif">Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6
<a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New",serif">unsubscribe
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New",serif">FRIAM-COMIC
<a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<pre>.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></pre>
</blockquote>
<pre>-- <o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Joe<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre> <o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail communication and any attachments may contain confidential and privileged information for the use of the designated recipients named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this communication in error and that any review, disclosure, dissemination, distribution, or copying of it or its contents is prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify me immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from your computer. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></pre>
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<p class="MsoNormal">.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">
bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">
http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>
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