<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
</head>
<body>
<p>Perhaps some data (from the last years that I could find) would
put the 'anthropologists' argument in perspective?</p>
<p>2017-now US Population about 320 million.<br>
</p>
<p><b>US Suicides</b> <b>2017</b><br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>14.0 per 100,000</p>
<p>Total: <b>47,173</b></p>
</blockquote>
<p><b>US Motor Vehicle Fatalities</b> <b>2018</b></p>
<blockquote>
<p>11.18 per 100,000</p>
<p>Total: <b>36,560</b></p>
</blockquote>
<p><b>US Covid-19 Fatalities 5/11/20 </b>132 days into the year
with one wave under our belt<br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>24.32 per 100,000</p>
<p>Total 2019 YTD: <b>80,094</b></p>
</blockquote>
<p><b>US Spanish Flu Fatalities (1918 H1N1 flu pandemic)</b> - in as
many as three waves.<br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>US Population: 103,208,000</p>
<p>654 per 100,000<br>
</p>
<p>Total Mar 1918 - Mar 1919: <b>675,000</b></p>
</blockquote>
<p>And yes people to go after the annual fatalities depending on the
cause, especially leading causes: heart disease, cancer, gun
violence, opioid abuse, domestic abuse, police violence, etc. And
of course, you can bring back jobs and the economy, you can't
bring back lost loved ones. And there are more waves to come.</p>
<p>And then we will continue experiencing more global warming
induced disasters: fires, flood, cyclones, more SARS-CoV-## style
zoonotic pandemics, climate refugees. What happens when these
happen simultaneously?</p>
<p>It's hard not to conclude that capitalism is and has been a
complete and utter abject failure when responding and dealing with
these events, not mention it being among the causes, but I
digress.<br>
</p>
<p>Ref:</p>
<p><a
href="https://www.acep.org/how-we-serve/sections/disaster-medicine/news/april-2018/1918-influenza-pandemic-a-united-states-timeline/">https://www.acep.org/how-we-serve/sections/disaster-medicine/news/april-2018/1918-influenza-pandemic-a-united-states-timeline/</a></p>
<p><a
href="https://interestingengineering.com/the-1918-spanish-flu-and-what-it-cost-humanity-a-timeline">https://interestingengineering.com/the-1918-spanish-flu-and-what-it-cost-humanity-a-timeline</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929">https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929</a></p>
<p>Robert Cordingley - an occasional lurker.<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 5/11/20 12:07 PM, Frank Wimberly
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAA5dAfqahp1Mpq45Pp7e3kxoxTP0VLLsvvgy90syKabURtJzEQ@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="auto">My high school best friend Jim Snoke posted this
on Facebook. He is also an anthropologist, like Dave. He says
he finished his dissertation at UC Davis but his defense never
happened because his major adviser moved to another university.
(?). He has gotten involved in a major way with Native American
causes and got about 40,000 signatures on a petition to save
Chaco National Monument from fracking damage. He still lives in
CA so he asked me to deliver it to the Governor's Office
personally. I tried but they didn't really want that much
paper. They said to tell him to email a digital file with the
signatures. They took it seriously.
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">Compare the arguments of the two
anthropologists:</div>
<div dir="auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir="auto">The death rate in the United States, without
considering the Covid-19 outbreak – and decades before it was
even a twinkle in the eyes of America – stood at roughly 8.7
per 1000 people per year. That translates into a death rate
of 0.0087. There are roughly 330 million people in the United
States this year, and that translates into the following
figure: 2,871,000. Two million, eight hundred and
seventy-one thousand people die EVERY YEAR IN THE UNITED
STATES of “natural” and “unnatural “ causes. Keep that figure
in mind when those in power, and those in the media, scare the
shit out of people with their dire “predictions” about the
rising infection and death rates. At the present time, our
already fragile economy is going to be ruined beyond all
recovery – quite likely forever – and the draconian measures
to “fight the virus” will have succeeded in destroying the
lives of almost half of our total population in the name of a
“pandemic” that is taking less than a tenth of 1 percent of
the population. My point is that NO ONE in the United States
goes berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this
country alone – every year. We don’t forfeit our economy and
our way of life over these equally-tragic deaths. But let it
be an epidemic, and we DO forfeit our economy and our way of
life – and the “epidemic” will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER reach the
truly-epidemic proportions that constitute the NATURAL and
UNNATURAL, ONGOING DEATH RATE IN THE UNITED STATES. OMG!!!
270,000 people have died from the pandemic !!!!! Yes, it is
horrible – but what about the 2,871,000 people that die every
year regardless of the pandemic??? 10 times the death rate of
the “pandemic” -- every single, Goddamned year. Where is the
outrage?? Where is the concern?? Are we actually so scared
shitless that we are willing to lose our ENTIRE ECONOMY, OUR
JOBS, OUR INCOMES??? Has anybody thought this through?? We
have flunked, outright, many many tests as a population over
the past 100 years. Those of you who insist on arguing that:
“THIS IS DIFFERENT – IT IS AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE THAT WE HAD
NO CONTROL OVER, AND IT MIGHT HAVE KILLED US” need to keep in
mind that although there are now more than 30,000,000
unemployed – and soon to be upwards of 50,000,000 – someone
stands to gain from all this. Trump is using the distraction
of the pandemic to go after fracking leases in our National
Parks, large businesses are profiting from the “bailout” by
looting the U.S. Treasury, Shell Oil and others are cutting
down the rainforest in Brazil at a rate that is 50% higher
this year than ever before, and capitalism in general is
nailing the coffin shut on control of the World’s economies.
Once again, we humans are failing the test, and this time the
“F” we get will be "F"orever.<br>
<br>
<div data-smartmail="gmail_signature" dir="auto">---<br>
Frank C. Wimberly<br>
140 Calle Ojo Feliz, <br>
Santa Fe, NM 87505<br>
<br>
505 670-9918<br>
Santa Fe, NM</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, May 11, 2020, 11:45 AM
<<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div link="blue" vlink="purple" lang="EN-US">
<div class="m_-5803362191771484197WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal">Gary, </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But
if you do bet back before noon Mountain, sign on; we are
often still going at it, even that late. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"
rel="noreferrer" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#0563c1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563c1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <<a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Gary Schiltz<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic</p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I definitely will try to make
it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is
the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the
roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the
pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get
to the only supermarket that is open within 50
miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.</p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51
AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:</p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid
#cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Gary, </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you join the FRIAM ZOOM
… perhaps come a bit late … you will get a
chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t
for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you
should get an invite automatically, sometime
thursday. If not, let me know. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of
Ethology and Psychology</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#0563c1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#0563c1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <<a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Gary Schiltz<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied
Complexity Coffee Group <<a
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] the end of the
pandemic</p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I'm supposed to be a
geek, but I don't understand "Tempus
Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some
mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks.
Google search shows a company called Tempus
Dictum, and there appears to be some
software called Discord, either or both of
which may or may not be associated with Glen
and reminders. I feel so behind times and
technologically challenged. :-). Channeling
Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended,
Nick]</p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, May 11, 2020 at
10:28 AM uǝlƃ <span
style="font-family:"Segoe UI
Emoji",sans-serif">☣</span> <<a
href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">gepropella@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:</p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc
1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">Among the many reasons
email is obsolete is the ability of other
tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily
found later on. In principle, the Mailman
list page could do this. But it's
comparatively awkward. Piling more into
the footer can play the same role, but
since few posters clean up their posts
(e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such
piling makes sifting through contributions
awkward, as well.<br>
<br>
Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post
somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make
such explicit predictions, similar to
those experiment sites where you have to
submit your design for review, then
conduct the experiment, then submit your
results:<br>
<br>
<a
href="https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/</a><br>
<br>
And it follows nicely with the (painfully
slow) admission that knowledge comes
through failure, not success: <a
href="https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/</a><br>
<br>
For now, I'll simply install a reminder in
Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and
look at Dave's prediction in late June.<br>
<br>
On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:<br>
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at
least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.<br>
> <br>
> This assertion is premised on making
a distinction between the biological and
the perceptual.<br>
> <br>
> The virus is not going away, a
vaccine may or may not be found and made
widely available, and treatments that
reduce severity and death rate may or may
not be soon at hand. Hot spots will
continue to flare. Model-based
prognostications will be confirmed. And
none of this will matter.<br>
> <br>
> A radical shift in perception from
"we're all going to die" to "I have next
to zero chance of severe illness or death"
is reaching a tipping point and a
catastrophic (mathematical sense of the
word) change from one to the other is
imminent.<br>
> <br>
> "Science" will quickly confirm
(justify / rationalize) this shift —
after all, my individual risk is 150,000 /
300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."<br>
> <br>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this
new perceptual reality and socio-economic
restrictions will collapse.<br>
> <br>
> The percentage of the population that
wear masks (just one example of a
behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal
the number that fastidiously fasten their
seat belts; but this and similar behaviors
will mitigate the the infection/death
rate.<br>
> <br>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no
worse than the flu, the death rate will
become "acceptable," and the current media
"hysteria" will fade away.<br>
> <br>
> There will be a segment of the
populace — mostly the affluent elderly and
individuals who have acquired
money/influence/notoriety the past few
months — who will argue against these
changes but their objections will be
quickly countered with, "why should I
suffer all kinds of consequences — ones
you do not share — to cater to your fears
or your ego?"<br>
> <br>
> None of the above should be
interpreted as anything except a simple
observation / prediction.<br>
<br>
<br>
-- <br>
<span style="font-family:"Segoe UI
Emoji",sans-serif">☣</span> uǝlƃ<br>
<br>
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ...
-..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... .
...<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a
href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
unsubscribe <a
href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
archives: <a
href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/<br>
FRIAM-COMIC</a> <a
href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal">.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -..
--- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... .
...<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a
href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
unsubscribe <a
href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
archives: <a
href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>
FRIAM-COMIC <a
href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"
target="_blank" rel="noreferrer"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-.
-.. .- ... .... . ...<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a
href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" rel="noreferrer
noreferrer" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
unsubscribe <a
href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"
rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"
rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"
rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
<br>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
<fieldset class="mimeAttachmentHeader"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
archives: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
Cirrillian
Web Design & Development
Santa Fe, NM
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://cirrillian.com">http://cirrillian.com</a>
281-989-6272 (cell)</pre>
</body>
</html>