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<p>Gary -</p>
<p>I'd find it interesting and informative if not directly
actionable to know more about how things are there in Ecuador. <br>
</p>
<p> I'm surprised that you are as far from groceries as 50 miles? I
was thinking you were living closer to a major city (Quito?) but
nevertheless semi-rural? Are there no smaller markets open
closer to you, or do you prefer to shop (only) at the larger
markets (limiting yourself to 1 trip)? What are the infection
rates there and do you have a feeling for where the biggest risks
are for the population?</p>
<p>I track a few "instagrammer types" who were traveling in
self-contained van/camper setups around the world when this hit.
One has returned from their trek from Utah down to Tierra del
Fuego (and back), finally giving up and returning from the
Uraguayan border of Argentina by airline, leaving their van in
storage there. The other couple had already bought a small piece
of land and parked their converted short-bus there permanently
when this hit and have been reporting nearly daily as they cope
with the shutdowns there. Others were in Morocco (now one in
Canada and the others in Croatia and another back in the UK).
Each one has their own idiosyncratic view of the whole experience,
but the bottom line I'm sensing is that those countries (and the
ones some had to travel through) are MUCH more draconian in their
rules than the US is, for better or worse. <br>
</p>
<p>Maybe this pandemic is an illusion created and maintained by "the
liberal elite", but if it is their reach is a great deal more
expansive than I could have imagined.</p>
<p>My 22 year old nephew in Tucson was just released from his (self)
quarantine. His earliest symptoms came on at the end of March but
he was unable to get a doctor's appointment or a (subsequent)
test, just the phone recommendations to "stay home to avoid
infecting anyone) and some general information about what symptoms
to treat as worthy of an emergency hospital visit. He didn't
have overtly corona-exclusive symptoms until about 2 weeks in,
when his smell and taste were severely compromised. He is still
having mild fatigue and shortness of breath, but nothing that
can't be attributed to being (ever-more) sedentary for 6 weeks.
He's following social-distance and masking when leaving home, but
the doctors (on the phone) gave him the greenlight with those
restrictions. It is a mildly hypochondriac family, and I know he
gets extra points/dispensation for having been infected, but it
does sound like he probably was. He says the docs are not
offering antigen testing, ambiguously because A) they don't have
access; or B) they don't think it should change his future
behaviour.<br>
</p>
<p>Last night, I zoomed with that whole branch of my family (my
mother, my only sister, her husband and their 3 adult children),
all excepting the nephew are hard-core Fox-News watching
Trump-train riders. One niece is a nurse in Riverside CA, living
with a Doctor.. both treating COVID19 patients daily, though their
hospital is mid-sized and has not been overwhelmed, specializing
in taking the overflow from the smaller surrounding towns and
running a suite of triage tents in the parking lot. There was no
discussion of politics including NO rattling on (like they did 6
weeks ago) about the "Democrat Hoax". <br>
</p>
<p>My sister is in a k-8 Montessori school and half of the staff
believes they do not need masks or PPE (now that they are back)
but my sister (with her son's experience) is not giving over to
that idea wears a mask, sanitizes, and keeps her distance as best
she can. She is worried that if the students return (today) to
that environment, that they are just asking to be another source
of a fresh cluster of infections. The timing is such that
whoever is (maybe) being exposed today, should be recovering (if
they survive) from this fresh burst of infection about the time
Dave thinks the pandemic (aka hysteria) will subside. It is a
small school (a few hundred staff/teachers/students) and maybe
nobody in that pool is currently infected, and maybe they will all
avoid becoming infected during that period. <br>
</p>
<p>They also acknowledged (in January) that "Climate Change is real,
and going to cause real problems for real people, like US!", when
they had been ardent (if polite) deniers for at least the 20 years
I have put down my own denial/cynicism on the topic. I have no
idea who they are going to vote for in November... maybe they
will just stay home (since AZ is not likely to eagerly embrace
vote-by-mail like NM already has declared for).</p>
<p>ramble, <br>
</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<p>On 5/11/20 11:13 AM, Gary Schiltz wrote:</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CANr4ZeN43mcafd_y7LsoHKTcj57e=bzZmKJbO5rRsWdwknXtFA@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">
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<div>I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms.
Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted
to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to
the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the
only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes
at 1:00 pm.</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, May 11, 2020 at
11:51 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div lang="EN-US">
<div class="gmail-m_3137039475929041087WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal">Gary, </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you join the FRIAM ZOOM …
perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to
meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It
starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite
automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me
know. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div
style="border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;border-top:1pt
solid rgb(225,225,225);padding:3pt 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam <<a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Gary Schiltz<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic</p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I'm supposed to be a geek, but I
don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds
like some mathematical proof from the ancient
Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus
Dictum, and there appears to be some software called
Discord, either or both of which may or may not be
associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind
times and technologically challenged. :-).
Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended,
Nick]</p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28
AM uǝlƃ <span style="font-family:"Segoe UI
Emoji",sans-serif">☣</span> <<a
href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">gepropella@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:</p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border-top:none;border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:1pt
solid rgb(204,204,204);padding:0in 0in 0in
6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<p class="MsoNormal">Among the many reasons email is
obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a
post so that it's easily found later on. In
principle, the Mailman list page could do this.
But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into
the footer can play the same role, but since few
posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the
repeated footer), such piling makes sifting
through contributions awkward, as well.<br>
<br>
Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I
think it's fantastic to make such explicit
predictions, similar to those experiment sites
where you have to submit your design for review,
then conduct the experiment, then submit your
results:<br>
<br>
<a
href="https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/</a><br>
<br>
And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow)
admission that knowledge comes through failure,
not success: <a
href="https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/</a><br>
<br>
For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus
Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's
prediction in late June.<br>
<br>
On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:<br>
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in
the US, by mid-June, 2020.<br>
> <br>
> This assertion is premised on making a
distinction between the biological and the
perceptual.<br>
> <br>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or
may not be found and made widely available, and
treatments that reduce severity and death rate may
or may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will
continue to flare. Model-based prognostications
will be confirmed. And none of this will matter.<br>
> <br>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all
going to die" to "I have next to zero chance of
severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping
point and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of
the word) change from one to the other is
imminent.<br>
> <br>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify /
rationalize) this shift — after all, my
individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or
"pretty damned small."<br>
> <br>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new
perceptual reality and socio-economic restrictions
will collapse.<br>
> <br>
> The percentage of the population that wear
masks (just one example of a behavioral
phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that
fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but this and
similar behaviors will mitigate the the
infection/death rate.<br>
> <br>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than
the flu, the death rate will become "acceptable,"
and the current media "hysteria" will fade away.<br>
> <br>
> There will be a segment of the populace —
mostly the affluent elderly and individuals who
have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past
few months — who will argue against these changes
but their objections will be quickly countered
with, "why should I suffer all kinds of
consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to
your fears or your ego?"<br>
> <br>
> None of the above should be interpreted as
anything except a simple observation / prediction.<br>
<br>
<br>
-- <br>
<span style="font-family:"Segoe UI
Emoji",sans-serif">☣</span> uǝlƃ<br>
<br>
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