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<p>Dave -</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:952b63d5-9b70-4082-9647-8f6a9ec7ca37@www.fastmail.com">
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.</pre>
</blockquote>
Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
respond to the singular prediction above:<br>
<span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
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!important; float: none;"></span>
<p>What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe
to indicate that the pandemic has ended? <br>
</p>
<p>From Wikipedia:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">A<span> </span></span><b
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal;
orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">pandemic</b><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span> </span>(from<span> </span></span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek"
title="Ancient Greek" style="text-decoration: none; color:
rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);
font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">Greek</a><span style="color:
rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;
font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span> </span></span><span
title="Ancient Greek language text" style="color: rgb(32, 33,
34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style:
normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial;
text-decoration-color: initial;" lang="grc">πᾶν</span><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">,<span> </span></span><i
title="Ancient Greek-language romanization" style="color:
rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial;
text-decoration-color: initial;" lang="grc-Latn">pan</i><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">, "all" and<span> </span></span><span
title="Ancient Greek language text" style="color: rgb(32, 33,
34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style:
normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial;
text-decoration-color: initial;" lang="grc">δῆμος</span><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">,<span> </span></span><i
title="Ancient Greek-language romanization" style="color:
rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial;
text-decoration-color: initial;" lang="grc-Latn">demos</i><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">, "people") is an<span> </span></span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic" title="Epidemic"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128);
background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">epidemic</a><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span> </span>of<span> </span></span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease" title="Disease"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128);
background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">disease</a><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span> </span>that has spread across
a large region, for instance multiple<span> </span></span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents"
class="mw-redirect" title="Continents" style="text-decoration:
none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255,
255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style:
normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">continents</a><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span> </span>or worldwide,
affecting a substantial number of people. A widespread<span> </span></span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)"
title="Endemic (epidemiology)" style="text-decoration: none;
color: rgb(11, 0, 128); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);
font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">endemic</a><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span> </span>disease with a stable
number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread
endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such
as recurrences of<span> </span></span><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza"
class="mw-redirect" title="Seasonal influenza"
style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(11, 0, 128);
background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">seasonal
influenza</a><span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family:
sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial;
text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline !important;
float: none;"><span> </span>are generally excluded as they
occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than
being spread worldwide.</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"></span><span style="color: rgb(32, 33,
34); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style:
normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps:
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline !important; float: none;"><span
style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">The WHO published THIS description
of phases of a pandemic:</span></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p><img
src="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/corecgi/tileshop/tileshop.fcgi?p=BOOKS&id=335950&s=55&r=1&c=1"></p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
<p><i><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times
New Roman", serif; font-size: 15.9991px;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;">In the<span> </span></span></i><i><b
style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:
"Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15.9991px;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing:
0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color:
rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial;
text-decoration-color: initial;">post-pandemic</b></i><i><span
style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New
Roman", serif; font-size: 15.9991px;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span> </span>period, influenza
disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen
for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic
virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this
stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update
pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An
intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.</span></i></p>
</blockquote>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
<span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34); font-family: sans-serif;
font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400;
letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start;
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;
widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline
!important; float: none;"><span style="color: rgb(32, 33, 34);
font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2;
text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial;
text-decoration-color: initial; display: inline !important;
float: none;"></span></span></p>
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