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<p>Friammers -</p>
<p>Mary's daughter, who lives in Wisconsin alerted us to the big
court-decision overturning the governor's stay-at-home order:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a
href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html">https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html</a></p>
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<p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 20px;
font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.7em; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);"><i>In
a concurring opinion, Kelly said the court’s decision hinged
on determining the extent of Palm’s authority, not whether
her emergency order was a good idea.</i></p>
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<p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 20px;
font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.7em; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);"><i>“The
order may be a brilliantly conceived and executed response
to COVID-19,” Kelly said. “Either way, that is not the
question before the court.”</i></p>
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</blockquote>
<div class="lee-article-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; color:
rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui,
"Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple
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Symbol"; font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
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normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:
0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">I'm (nicely?) split on
issues like this and I think this last quote really says a lot.
I understand that 2 or more counties immediately issued their own
"safer at home" order matching the one repealed at the state
level. I'm not clear on whether a similar "overreach of
authority" will ultimately be decided against those.</div>
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initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><br>
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<div class="lee-article-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; color:
rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui,
"Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple
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Symbol"; font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:
0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Anecdotally, in the
meantime, many bars have opened and apparently many patrons have
returned (without masks and not observing social distancing
guidelines). <br>
</div>
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<div class="lee-article-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; color:
rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui,
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Symbol"; font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
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white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:
0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">This seems like a good
test bed of some of the assumptions behind Dave's "prophecy".
Will the (if we believe in the germ theory and network
transmission) uptick in cases resulting from this lead to a
continuation of the pandemic (or "pandemic" if we prefer to
believe the only uncontrolled growth is in hysterical media
coverage and hypochondria). The best case (and one I mostly hope
for) might be if the subset of the WI population who now disregard
the (former) rules is small enough and insular (only infecting one
another) enough and/or the herd immunity has grown enough (highest
estimates in places like NYC I think are still down as low as 20%
out of the believed 70% required to bring R0 below 1.0 w/o
masks/social-distance measures?). <br>
</div>
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<div class="lee-article-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; color:
rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui,
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Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI
Symbol"; font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:
0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Given that the courts
may well be accurate in their interpretation of the limits to the
governor's powers, I would expect a domino of challenges across
republican-majority courts in other states, and a subsequent surge
in the unrestricted opening of businesses and events. <br>
</div>
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<div class="lee-article-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; color:
rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: -apple-system, system-ui,
"Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple
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Symbol"; font-size: 14px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;
white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width:
0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">I find a bit of
cognitive/emotional/spiritual dissonance in trying to hold all
three of the following in my head/heart/soul at the same time:</div>
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<ol>
<li>The rule of law is important in our society and if a
governor does not have the right to shut down as hard as some
have, then that needs to be acknowledged and reversed.</li>
<li>There is a lot of evidence suggesting that like Kelly above
is quoted that "the order may be a brilliantly conceived and
executed response... " and that reversing it in fact as well
as in law may well yield a significant increase in R0 in those
states (and among states who have significant mixing *with*
those states), possibly putting us back close to where we were
in late March.</li>
<li>I don't like the idea of telling others what to do
(wholesale), nor being told what to do (specifically), but I
also recognize that we do not live isolated, solitary lives,
and "what we do matters". My threshold on accepting secondary
and tertiary consequences may be above "helmet and seatbelt
laws" but below "measures to suppress epidemic spread of
deadly disease". But how does that jive with my threshold
for accepting "limits to personal agency and volition"? <br>
</li>
</ol>
<p>These are indeed, interesting times, and as with the basis of
Dave's prophecy, "only time will tell"... and with Glen's "put
a pin in it", I just hope we keep track and pay attention to how
well our prophecies/projections/forecasts play out.</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
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