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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Eric I judge her by her predictive hit=rate: how many of the things she says are going to happen actually happen. She is pretty good, but I find that, as a lefty, I am sometime led by her to be more optimistic than I should be. The most egregious example was her hair-on-fire promotion of an old page from a Trump tax return, which SNL mercilessly satirized. I think she also led me to fear Barr less than I should have. I give her an 80 percent. Still, I think of her as comfort food. I don’t know O Reilly. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>However, if your understanding of the Wisconsin legal situation is accurate, she really, really blew it. There was no qualification or ambiguity, whatsoever. Ditto, the governor’s representation. He implied that he had no power to do anything until empowered by the legislature. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If it was bad, it was very bad. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric Charles<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, May 14, 2020 11:58 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Wisconsin stay-at-home (safer at home) order overturned<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Maddow huh.... that would explain why so many of my more liberal Facebook friends are spewing so much venom over the issue.... Did she ask him <i>any </i>questions that required him to justify his interpretation of the court's decision? Or have any assessment of what the court decision was, separate from the Governor's complaining about it? (Honest questions, I didn't see it.) <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>I really think of her as the Bill O'Reilly of the left. Not the Glen Beck mind you, but the O'Reilly. In both cases, if they would just own how biased their shows are, it would make the whole situation much better. <br clear=all><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>-----------<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.<br>Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>American University - Adjunct Instructor<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Thu, May 14, 2020 at 12:21 PM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Interesting, EricC.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Maddow had the governor on last night and he treated it as a complete renunciation of his authority. “It’s the Wild West out there”, he said. As he presented it, the only resolution was for him to agree with the legislature on laws to govern the situation. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Hmmmmm!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>N<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric Charles<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, May 14, 2020 10:14 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Wisconsin stay-at-home (safer at home) order overturned<o:p></o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>The news coverage of this has been odd. The order is definitely <i>not</i> countering a "governor's stay-at-home order", which is what I see most people saying. The governor took emergency powers, made a few orders directly, and then instructed the Health Secretary to take the lead on state-wide response. The Health Secretary then issued several orders under her own signatory authority, only one of which was challenged (Order 28). The ruling is that <i><u>that particular order</u></i> was so broad and general as to count as executive branch rule making, which has its own set of rules, including a period of time for review by the legislature. <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Full decision:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EMO28-SaferAtHome.pdf" target="_blank">https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EMO28-SaferAtHome.pdf</a> <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>From the opinion of the court, paragraph 1: <o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>This case is about the assertion of power by one unelected official, Andrea Palm, and her order to all people within Wisconsin to remain in their homes, not to travel and to close all businesses that she declares are not "essential" in Emergency Order 28. Palm says that failure to obey Order 28 subjects the transgressor to imprisonment for 30 days, a $250 fine or both. This case is not about Governor Tony Evers' Emergency Order or the powers of the Governor. <o:p></o:p></p></div></blockquote><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>From paragraph 7:<o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>On April 16, 2020, Palm issued Emergency Order 28, also titled "Safer at Home Order." This order was not issued by the Governor, nor did it rely on the Governor's emergency declaration. Rather, it relied solely on "the authority vested in [Andrea Palm, Department of Health Services Secretary-designee] by the Laws of the State, including but not limited to [Wis. Stat. §] 252.02(3), (4), and (6)." Emergency Order 28 commands all individuals in Wisconsin "to stay at home or at their place of residence" with certain limited exceptions approved by Palm or risk punishment "by up to 30 days imprisonment, or up to $250 fine, or both." 8 Order 28 also: <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Prohibits "[a]ll forms of travel" except what Palm deems essential. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Orders "[a]ll for-profit and non-profit businesses" to "cease all activities" except for minimum operations that Palm deemed basic. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Prohibits "[a]ll public and private gatherings of any number" "not part of a single household." <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Declares that all public and private K-12 schools "shall remain closed" for the remainder of the year. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Declares that libraries shall remain closed for "all inperson services." <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Declares all "public amusement and activity" places closed regardless of whether "indoors or outdoors" except golf courses (with restrictions). The order says "Driving ranges and miniature golf must remain closed." <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Continues the ordered closure of all salons and spas. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Continues the closure of every restaurant and bar except for take-out or delivery service. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Orders religious groups to limit gatherings to "fewer than 10 people in a room" including weddings and funerals. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote style='margin-left:30.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>* Imposes a six-foot social distancing requirement for any person not "residing in a single living unit or household." <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote></blockquote><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>On Thu, May 14, 2020 at 10:55 AM Steven A Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p>Friammers -<o:p></o:p></p><p>Mary's daughter, who lives in Wisconsin alerted us to the big court-decision overturning the governor's stay-at-home order:<o:p></o:p></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p><a href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html" target="_blank">https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html</a><o:p></o:p></p><p style='margin-bottom:15.0pt;line-height:20.4pt;background:white;box-sizing:border-box'><i><span style='font-size:15.0pt;color:#222222'>In a concurring opinion, Kelly said the court’s decision hinged on determining the extent of Palm’s authority, not whether her emergency order was a good idea.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p><p style='margin-bottom:15.0pt;line-height:20.4pt;background:white;box-sizing:border-box'><i><span style='font-size:15.0pt;color:#222222'>“The order may be a brilliantly conceived and executed response to COVID-19,” Kelly said. “Either way, that is not the question before the court.”</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>I'm (nicely?) split on issues like this and I think this last quote really says a lot. I understand that 2 or more counties immediately issued their own "safer at home" order matching the one repealed at the state level. I'm not clear on whether a similar "overreach of authority" will ultimately be decided against those.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Anecdotally, in the meantime, many bars have opened and apparently many patrons have returned (without masks and not observing social distancing guidelines). <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>This seems like a good test bed of some of the assumptions behind Dave's "prophecy". Will the (if we believe in the germ theory and network transmission) uptick in cases resulting from this lead to a continuation of the pandemic (or "pandemic" if we prefer to believe the only uncontrolled growth is in hysterical media coverage and hypochondria). The best case (and one I mostly hope for) might be if the subset of the WI population who now disregard the (former) rules is small enough and insular (only infecting one another) enough and/or the herd immunity has grown enough (highest estimates in places like NYC I think are still down as low as 20% out of the believed 70% required to bring R0 below 1.0 w/o masks/social-distance measures?). <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Given that the courts may well be accurate in their interpretation of the limits to the governor's powers, I would expect a domino of challenges across republican-majority courts in other states, and a subsequent surge in the unrestricted opening of businesses and events. <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>I find a bit of cognitive/emotional/spiritual dissonance in trying to hold all three of the following in my head/heart/soul at the same time:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><ol start=1 type=1><li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'>The rule of law is important in our society and if a governor does not have the right to shut down as hard as some have, then that needs to be acknowledged and reversed.<o:p></o:p></li><li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'>There is a lot of evidence suggesting that like Kelly above is quoted that "the order may be a brilliantly conceived and executed response... " and that reversing it in fact as well as in law may well yield a significant increase in R0 in those states (and among states who have significant mixing *with* those states), possibly putting us back close to where we were in late March.<o:p></o:p></li><li class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'>I don't like the idea of telling others what to do (wholesale), nor being told what to do (specifically), but I also recognize that we do not live isolated, solitary lives, and "what we do matters". My threshold on accepting secondary and tertiary consequences may be above "helmet and seatbelt laws" but below "measures to suppress epidemic spread of deadly disease". But how does that jive with my threshold for accepting "limits to personal agency and volition"? <o:p></o:p></li></ol><p>These are indeed, interesting times, and as with the basis of Dave's prophecy, "only time will tell"... and with Glen's "put a pin in it", I just hope we keep track and pay attention to how well our prophecies/projections/forecasts play out.<o:p></o:p></p><p>- Steve<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal>.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>