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<p>Eric -</p>
<p>Thanks for the more penetrative review of the situation. I was,
in fact, working from new-reports and anecdotes from family... I
suppose that means that the dominoes across the country set to
fall might not fall as crisply (or at all?).... I'm still torn
(hypothetically) about the distinction between "doing the right
thing" and "the rule of law". I believe that the distinction is
both about "context" (one size fits all in space and time and
circumstance) and time-scale... if a rule set in cement
(legislation) becomes in-apt for a new circumstance (pandemic
threat), it may take longer to adjust it to fit than the
time-scale of the event (weeks?) as it unfolds. I suppose this
is what executive emergency powers exist for... to allow for
timely tactical response while the strategic
longer-term/broader-implication responses can muster as
appropriate.</p>
<p>Too bad we seem to have (at least?) one significant faction in
our politics interested in pitting those against one another when
I *think* they were designed to work cooperatively in the best of
times and provide checks and balances in the worst of times. My
biases have me wanting to believe that this "pitting" is entirely
the contrivance of the GOP/Right but of course I hear just the
opposite *from* them and am left wondering how much of an
imbalance there is... anecdotally, "packing the courts" and
"voter suppression" and "gerrymandering" are (almost) exclusively
the province of the (authoritarian, loyalty-before-sensemaking?)
Right. The counter argument from the other side seems to reduce
to "voter fraud" and maybe citing an (unbalanced?) number of
court-packings, and gerry-manderings. <br>
</p>
<p>Too much (IMO) of politics today seems to be no more than "gaming
the system" by "mucking with the machinery" rather than truly
trying to satisfice or optimise the design and operation of the
machinery to achieve collectively beneficial results.</p>
<p>mumble,</p>
<p> - Steve<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 5/14/20 10:13 AM, Eric Charles
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAEYGzMCvfCQAmbonaPWpko4ZRQVQULEWqDbeeAUAaf8sveQ55g@mail.gmail.com">
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<div dir="ltr">The news coverage of this has been odd. The order
is definitely <i style="text-decoration-line:underline">not</i>
countering a "governor's stay-at-home order", which is what I
see most people saying. The governor took emergency powers, made
a few orders directly, and then instructed the Health Secretary
to take the lead on state-wide response. The Health Secretary
then issued several orders under her own signatory authority,
only one of which was challenged (Order 28). The ruling is that
<u><i>that particular order</i></u> was so broad and general as
to count as executive branch rule making, which has its own set
of rules, including a period of time for review by the
legislature.
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Full decision:</div>
<div><a
href="https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EMO28-SaferAtHome.pdf"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EMO28-SaferAtHome.pdf</a> <br>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>From the opinion of the court, paragraph 1: </div>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
This case is about the
assertion of power by one unelected official, Andrea Palm,
and her order to all people within Wisconsin to remain in
their homes, not
to travel and to close all businesses that she declares
are not
"essential" in Emergency Order 28. Palm says that failure
to obey
Order 28 subjects the transgressor to imprisonment for 30
days, a
$250 fine or both. This case is not about Governor Tony
Evers'
Emergency Order or the powers of the Governor. </div>
</blockquote>
<div>
<div>
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data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
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<div dir="ltr"><br>
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<div>From paragraph 7:</div>
</div>
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<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 40px;border:none;padding:0px">
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<div class="gmail_signature"
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<div>
<div>On April 16, 2020, Palm issued Emergency
Order 28, also
titled "Safer at Home Order." This order was
not issued by the
Governor, nor did it rely on the Governor's
emergency declaration.
Rather, it relied solely on "the authority
vested in [Andrea Palm,
Department of Health Services
Secretary-designee] by the Laws of
the State, including but not limited to
[Wis. Stat. §] 252.02(3),
(4), and (6)." Emergency Order 28 commands
all individuals in
Wisconsin "to stay at home or at their place
of residence" with
certain limited exceptions approved by Palm
or risk punishment "by
up to 30 days imprisonment, or up to $250
fine, or both." 8 Order
28 also: </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
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<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
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<div>
<div>
<div>* Prohibits "[a]ll forms of travel"
except what Palm deems
essential. </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
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<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Orders "[a]ll for-profit and non-profit
businesses" to
"cease all activities" except for minimum
operations that
Palm deemed basic.
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Prohibits "[a]ll public and private
gatherings of any
number" "not part of a single household." </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Declares that all public and private
K-12 schools "shall
remain closed" for the remainder of the
year. </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Declares that libraries shall remain
closed for "all inperson services." </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Declares all "public amusement and
activity" places closed
regardless of whether "indoors or outdoors"
except golf
courses (with restrictions). The order says
"Driving
ranges and miniature golf must remain
closed." </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Continues the ordered closure of all
salons and spas. </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Continues the closure of every
restaurant and bar except
for take-out or delivery service. </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Orders religious groups to limit
gatherings to "fewer than
10 people in a room" including weddings and
funerals. </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0
40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>* Imposes a six-foot social distancing
requirement for any
person not "residing in a single living unit
or household."
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
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data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
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<div><br>
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<div><br>
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<div><br>
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<br>
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<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, May 14, 2020 at 10:55
AM Steven A Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>Friammers -</p>
<p>Mary's daughter, who lives in Wisconsin alerted us to the
big court-decision overturning the governor's stay-at-home
order:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a
href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html</a></p>
<div
style="box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(34,34,34);font-size:14px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial">
<p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px
20px;font-size:20px;line-height:1.7em;color:rgb(34,34,34)"><i>In
a concurring opinion, Kelly said the court’s
decision hinged on determining the extent of Palm’s
authority, not whether her emergency order was a
good idea.</i></p>
</div>
<div
style="box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(34,34,34);font-size:14px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial">
<p style="box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px
20px;font-size:20px;line-height:1.7em;color:rgb(34,34,34)"><i>“The
order may be a brilliantly conceived and executed
response to COVID-19,” Kelly said. “Either way, that
is not the question before the court.”</i></p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div>I'm (nicely?) split on issues like this and I think
this last quote really says a lot. I understand that 2
or more counties immediately issued their own "safer at
home" order matching the one repealed at the state
level. I'm not clear on whether a similar "overreach of
authority" will ultimately be decided against those.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Anecdotally, in the meantime, many bars have opened and
apparently many patrons have returned (without masks and
not observing social distancing guidelines). <br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>This seems like a good test bed of some of the
assumptions behind Dave's "prophecy". Will the (if we
believe in the germ theory and network transmission)
uptick in cases resulting from this lead to a continuation
of the pandemic (or "pandemic" if we prefer to believe the
only uncontrolled growth is in hysterical media coverage
and hypochondria). The best case (and one I mostly hope
for) might be if the subset of the WI population who now
disregard the (former) rules is small enough and insular
(only infecting one another) enough and/or the herd
immunity has grown enough (highest estimates in places
like NYC I think are still down as low as 20% out of the
believed 70% required to bring R0 below 1.0 w/o
masks/social-distance measures?). <br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Given that the courts may well be accurate in their
interpretation of the limits to the governor's powers, I
would expect a domino of challenges across
republican-majority courts in other states, and a
subsequent surge in the unrestricted opening of businesses
and events. <br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I find a bit of cognitive/emotional/spiritual
dissonance in trying to hold all three of the following in
my head/heart/soul at the same time:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>The rule of law is important in our society and if a
governor does not have the right to shut down as hard
as some have, then that needs to be acknowledged and
reversed.</li>
<li>There is a lot of evidence suggesting that like
Kelly above is quoted that "the order may be a
brilliantly conceived and executed response... " and
that reversing it in fact as well as in law may well
yield a significant increase in R0 in those states
(and among states who have significant mixing *with*
those states), possibly putting us back close to where
we were in late March.</li>
<li>I don't like the idea of telling others what to do
(wholesale), nor being told what to do (specifically),
but I also recognize that we do not live isolated,
solitary lives, and "what we do matters". My
threshold on accepting secondary and tertiary
consequences may be above "helmet and seatbelt laws"
but below "measures to suppress epidemic spread of
deadly disease". But how does that jive with my
threshold for accepting "limits to personal agency and
volition"? <br>
</li>
</ol>
<p>These are indeed, interesting times, and as with the
basis of Dave's prophecy, "only time will tell"... and
with Glen's "put a pin in it", I just hope we keep track
and pay attention to how well our
prophecies/projections/forecasts play out.</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
</div>
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