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<p class="MsoNormal">Here’s what I expect will probably happen. The PANDEMIC will be declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W. There will be a slower burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again. But people will be acclimate to the death
rate, like they acclimate to gun violence. Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent. Suicides will go up, and be normalized. Meanwhile, people with the means will self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral treatments.
Out in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk populations. The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence compared to other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl moment, where the prestige of the United States
fell to Asia. And a second term of Trump will ensure it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West <profwest@fastmail.fm><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Date: </b>Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM<br>
<b>To: </b>"friam@redfish.com" <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Steve,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The latter will go away whether or not the disease
does.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC, and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable
shift from personal interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery store; stories
about death rates moving from the front page to the second page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science
tells, us, whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for the "experts" to claim they are right, but not
big enough to trigger any socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">davew<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p>Dave -<o:p></o:p></p>
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<pre>The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.<o:p></o:p></pre>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond to the singular prediction above:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p>What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe to indicate that the pandemic has ended?
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>From Wikipedia:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white">A </span></span><b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white">pandemic</span></b><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white"> (from </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek" title="Ancient Greek"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#0B0080;background:white">Greek</span></a><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white"> πᾶν, </span></span><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white">pan</span></i><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white">,
"all" and δῆμος, </span></span><i><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white">demos</span></i><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white">,
"people") is an </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic" title="Epidemic"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#0B0080;background:white">epidemic</span></a><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white"> of </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease" title="Disease"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#0B0080;background:white">disease</span></a><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white"> that
has spread across a large region, for instance multiple </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents" title="Continents"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#0B0080;background:white">continents</span></a><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white"> or
worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people. A widespread </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)" title="Endemic (epidemiology)"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#0B0080;background:white">endemic</span></a><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white"> disease
with a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza" title="Seasonal influenza"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#0B0080;background:white">seasonal
influenza</span></a><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white"> are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.</span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p><span class="size"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122;background:white">The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:</span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p><span style="border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in"><img border="0" width="32" height="32" style="width:.3333in;height:.3333in" id="_x0000_i1025" src="cid:~WRD0000.jpg" alt="Image removed by sender."></span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p><i><span style="color:black;background:white">In the </span></i><b><i><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;background:white">post-pandemic</span></i></b><i><span style="color:black;background:white"> period, influenza
disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness
and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p>Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>- Steve <o:p></o:p></p>
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