<!DOCTYPE html><html><head><title></title><style type="text/css">p.MsoNormal,p.MsoNoSpacing{margin:0}</style></head><body><div style="font-family:Arial;">Steve,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The latter will go away whether or not the disease does.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC, and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us, whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div>On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:<br></div><blockquote type="cite" id="qt" style=""><p>Dave -<br></p><blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:952b63d5-9b70-4082-9647-8f6a9ec7ca37@www.fastmail.com"><pre class="qt-moz-quote-pre">The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.<br></pre></blockquote><div>Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
respond to the singular prediction above:<br></div><div> <span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"></span></span></span> <br></div><p>What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe
to indicate that the pandemic has ended? <br></p><p>From Wikipedia:<br></p><blockquote><p><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;">A<span> </span></span></span></span><b style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;">pandemic</b><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span> </span>(from<span> </span></span></span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek" title="Ancient Greek" style="text-decoration-line:none;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor;text-decoration-thickness:auto;color:rgb(11, 0, 128);background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);background-position-x:0%;background-position-y:0%;background-repeat:repeat;background-attachment:scroll;background-image:none;background-size:auto;background-origin:padding-box;background-clip:border-box;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;">Greek</a><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span> </span></span></span></span><span title="Ancient Greek language text" style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;" lang="grc"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;">πᾶν</span></span></span><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;">,<span> </span></span></span></span><i title="Ancient Greek-language romanization" style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;" lang="grc-Latn">pan</i><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;">, "all" and<span> </span></span></span></span><span title="Ancient Greek language text" style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;" lang="grc"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;">δῆμος</span></span></span><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;">,<span> </span></span></span></span><i title="Ancient Greek-language romanization" style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;" lang="grc-Latn">demos</i><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;">, "people") is an<span> </span></span></span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic" title="Epidemic" style="text-decoration-line:none;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor;text-decoration-thickness:auto;color:rgb(11, 0, 128);background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);background-position-x:0%;background-position-y:0%;background-repeat:repeat;background-attachment:scroll;background-image:none;background-size:auto;background-origin:padding-box;background-clip:border-box;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;">epidemic</a><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span> </span>of<span> </span></span></span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease" title="Disease" style="text-decoration-line:none;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor;text-decoration-thickness:auto;color:rgb(11, 0, 128);background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);background-position-x:0%;background-position-y:0%;background-repeat:repeat;background-attachment:scroll;background-image:none;background-size:auto;background-origin:padding-box;background-clip:border-box;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;">disease</a><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span> </span>that has spread across
a large region, for instance multiple<span> </span></span></span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents" class="qt-mw-redirect" title="Continents" style="text-decoration-line:none;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor;text-decoration-thickness:auto;color:rgb(11, 0, 128);background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);background-position-x:0%;background-position-y:0%;background-repeat:repeat;background-attachment:scroll;background-image:none;background-size:auto;background-origin:padding-box;background-clip:border-box;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;">continents</a><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span> </span>or worldwide,
affecting a substantial number of people. A widespread<span> </span></span></span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)" title="Endemic (epidemiology)" style="text-decoration-line:none;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor;text-decoration-thickness:auto;color:rgb(11, 0, 128);background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);background-position-x:0%;background-position-y:0%;background-repeat:repeat;background-attachment:scroll;background-image:none;background-size:auto;background-origin:padding-box;background-clip:border-box;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;">endemic</a><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span> </span>disease with a stable
number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread
endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such
as recurrences of<span> </span></span></span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza" class="qt-mw-redirect" title="Seasonal influenza" style="text-decoration-line:none;text-decoration-style:solid;text-decoration-color:currentcolor;text-decoration-thickness:auto;color:rgb(11, 0, 128);background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);background-position-x:0%;background-position-y:0%;background-repeat:repeat;background-attachment:scroll;background-image:none;background-size:auto;background-origin:padding-box;background-clip:border-box;font-family:sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;">seasonal
influenza</a><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span> </span>are generally excluded as they
occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than
being spread worldwide.</span></span></span><br></p></blockquote><p><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"></span></span></span><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;">The WHO published THIS description
of phases of a pandemic:</span></span></span></span></span></span><br></p><p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/</a><br></p><blockquote><p><img src="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/corecgi/tileshop/tileshop.fcgi?p=BOOKS&id=335950&s=55&r=1&c=1"><br></p></blockquote><blockquote><p><i><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;">In the<span> </span></span></i><i><b style="font-weight:bold;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:"Times New Roman", serif;font-size:15.9991px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;">post-pandemic</b></i><i><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:left;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span> </span>period, influenza
disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen
for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic
virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this
stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update
pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An
intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.</span></i><br></p></blockquote><p><br></p><p>Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?<br></p><p>- Steve <span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"><span style="color:rgb(32, 33, 34);font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;display:inline !important;float:none;"><span class="font" style="font-family:sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:14px;"></span></span></span></span></span></span><br></p><div><br></div><div>.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ...<br></div><div>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></div><div>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br></div><div>unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br></div><div>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br></div><div>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <br></div><div><br></div></blockquote><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div></body></html>