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<p>Nick -</p>
<p>I *like* this kind of anecdotal/vernacular science. I think
Glen might refer to these stories/ideas as "just so stories"
because they seem to be post-hoc fitting of simple yet in some
sense apt models to anecdotal data gathered ad-hoc but widely.
I think I understand (and agree) with his (implied) judgment of
them as being "real science" but they smack of something more than
"wishful thinking", maybe "whimsical thinking"? And a sort of
proto-science. Or a collective form of knowledge/wisdom formation
which lacks the formal rigor of modern science. Related to what
Dave appeals to with us perhaps in Jung and other ideas of
collective consciousness. A step away from believing that the
cosmos and everyday life are ordered by a (the) angry/benevolent
god(esses) toward believing something perhaps equally absurd, that
everything is ordered by mathematics. <br>
</p>
<p>My father was second-generation college educated... with a BS in
biology preparing him for an advanced degree in Forestry (soil and
range science), and his parents before him both held BS degrees in
Geology. But they were all still rooted in a style of
understanding the world (minerals, plants and animals, and people)
which was roughly animistic... they all still lived physically
close to the earth and virtually all of their relatives were still
living in the hills and hollers of Appalachia. This could easily
explain why I "like" the anecdotal/vernacular and distrust the
*over* application of mathematics.</p>
<p>I've rattled on before about the *explanatory* power of models
and the hypotheses they embody vs *predictive* or *communicative*
or *descriptive* or even *inspirational*. These are not
orthogonal, but I think still useful... a "descriptive" model of
the utlity/power of scientific thinking/modeling?</p>
<p>- Steve</p>
<p>FWIW... re: Jon's report on their nutritive value, my young
chickens (6 weeks today?) have been foraging in our courtyard for
about a week during the day. At first they showed significant
interest in the flies that would occasion their feeder, but seemed
to learn quickly that they were not fast enough to catch them, and
soon discovered the myriad ground insects that they could find by
pecking and scratching. I was sitting on a low wall next to a
couple of them... they seem to like the company of humans and will
come close and do their foraging near me, even though I rarely
hand feed them. I looked down and one was swallowing a very
large grey-brown object which I am now sure was a miller. The
miller moth infestation/epidemic/peak at my house (near the Rio
Grande) seems to have lagged that of the one in Santa Fe and even
just up the Pojoaque Valley where people have been reporting the
deluge for weeks. Ours just started a few days ago.</p>
<p>Speaking of anecdotal and just-so science stories. I find it
fascinating to note that these birds, supposedly not THAT removed
from their wild ancestors are constructed from a single *large
enough to eat for breakfast* egg-cell in about 20 days and emerge
almost fully able to survive alone (though they benefit from the
warmth and protection and guidance of a mother hen, or some people
with a heat-lamp and some agri-industrially formulated food and
our own curiosity). And then, not too much later, they begin to
"shed an egg" nearly daily (if you keep taking them away) which if
fertilized, would repeat the construction, growth process right in
front of my eyes. Aside from their daily egg-gift, I look
forward to their help in insect control in my garden.... I can
tolerate many pests in the garden but some years we get
grasshoppers and squash bugs, each who can decimate a crop. <br>
</p>
<p>I've always enjoyed watching the Sphynx/Hummingbird moths around
the homestead, but did not know their larval form was the
"dreaded" tomato worm. Last year, I was surprised to see that
along with my tomatoes, they had discovered the volunteer datura
that come up here and there around the property and two or three
had ganged up on one plant and stripped it bare of leaves. I
wondered at how their metabolism handled the kind of alkaloids
that humans (and cattle?) experience as "loco weed". The datura,
with it's heavily cholorphylled and thick stems seemed to survive
just fine and put out a fresh bounty of (smaller?) leaves and
returned to it's course of producing flowers to be pollinated by
(also the sphynx?) and then a seedpod to lead to this year's
surprise sprouts?!<br>
</p>
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<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal">Hi, Merle, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The
standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they
occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for
creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See <a
href="https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers</a>
for a pretty thin introduction to the idea. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">N<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color:#0563C1">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Merle
Lefkoff<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths
everywhere...<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">My
son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on
the dot every 20 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">They
are also important pollinators. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon
Zingale <<a href="mailto:jonzingale@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">jonzingale@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC
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<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">Wow,
they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:</span><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122">Army
cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators,
such as </span><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333"><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_bear"
target="_blank" title="Brown bear"
moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#0B0080">brown
bears</span></a></span><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122">,
in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the
moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more
calorie-rich than elk or deer.</span><sup
id="gmail-m_-6215238948079029398gmail-cite_ref-10"><span
style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122"><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_cutworm#cite_note-10"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#0B0080">[10]</span></a></span></sup><span
style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122"> This
is the highest known body fat percentage of any
animal.</span><sup
id="gmail-m_-6215238948079029398gmail-cite_ref-11"><span
style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#202122"><a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_cutworm#cite_note-11"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
style="color:#0B0080">[11]</span></a></span></sup><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Garamond",serif;color:#333333"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">And
according to the New Mexican:</span><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#333333"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">`</span><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif;color:#333333">.</span><span
style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">.. they
do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not
the type of moth that will get into your clothes
closet and start shredding your new camel hair
jacket.</span><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Georgia",serif;color:#333333">`</span><span
style="color:#333333"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#333333"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#333333"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
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<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all">
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal">-- <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.<br>
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy<br>
<a href="http://emergentdiplomacy.org"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">emergentdiplomacy.org</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="mailto:merlelefoff@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">merlelefkoff@gmail.com</a><br>
mobile: (303) 859-5609<br>
skype: merle.lelfkoff2<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
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