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p.MsoNormal,p.MsoNoSpacing{margin:0}</style></head><body><div style="font-family:Arial;">Nick,<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The probability of any individual in the US having COVID-19 (known cases divided by population) is .00518<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">How many strangers — people you do not know are disease free or are non-infecting with antibodies — do you encounter, close enough to exchange droplets, in Santa Fe?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Add the number of strangers that anyone in your inner circle might similarly encounter?<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Let's assume that an encounter guarantees transmission, such that if you/yours encounters someone with the disease, you will be infected.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">So, if you or yours encounter ten strangers, your odds of getting the disease increase to .0518. If a hundred, then .518<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The only difference in risk between Santa Fe and Massachusetts is the number of strangers you/yours encounter. That number is pretty much under your control, so there is some, but relatively minor, difference in risk.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">using cases/population data, the odds of a stranger having covid in Hampshire county is 830/160,000 = .00519. In Santa Fe County, 126/150,000 = .00084.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The odds that a stranger has the virus is six times greater in Hampshire.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">You control the number of strangers, so you control the risk.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Most of the other factors that I can think of — e.g. likelihood of a droplet exchange, likelihood of transmission — reduce the risk from the worst case numbers above.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">A factor that would increase risk concerns the likelihood that a stranger has the disease given smaller population units than the county; i.e. 200 known cases in a 300 resident nursing home = 66%. Stay out of nursing homes!<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Go to Mass and continue to be a hermit.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Caveat: I grabbed the first numbers on Google that presented themselves.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Statisticians feel free to tear my argument apart.<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">davew<br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div>On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 3:12 PM, <a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<br></div><blockquote type="cite" id="qt" style=""><div class="qt-WordSection1"><p class="qt-MsoNormal">No, no. I am not being picky. Or at least, I hope not. What I want to know is the relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to Hampshire County MA. (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different issue). I think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases there are, full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population. I may be being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT site, any more. <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads. <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Nick<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Clark University<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193);">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193);">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div style="border-right-color:currentcolor;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-left-color:currentcolor;border-left-style:none;border-left-width:medium;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;border-top-color:rgb(225, 225, 225);border-top-style:solid;border-top-width:1pt;padding-top:3pt;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:0in;"><p class="qt-MsoNormal"></p><div><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank Wimberly<br></div><div><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:06 PM<br></div><div><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br></div><div><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request<br></div><p></p></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Picky, picky.<br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">Seriously, ...<br></p></div></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></p></div><blockquote style="border-top-color:currentcolor;border-top-style:none;border-top-width:medium;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);border-left-style:solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding-top:0in;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in;"><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Yes. Thanks, Frank. That’s where it used to be. But the “case growth rate” is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless number because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already had. What I am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even better, the daily case increase per 100 k pop.<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Thanks,<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">N<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Nicholas Thompson<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Clark University<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193);">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(5, 99, 193);">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><div style="border-right-color:currentcolor;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-left-color:currentcolor;border-left-style:none;border-left-width:medium;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;border-top-color:rgb(225, 225, 225);border-top-style:solid;border-top-width:1pt;padding-top:3pt;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:0in;"><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""></p><div><b>From:</b> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank Wimberly<br></div><div><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM<br></div><div><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>><br></div><div><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request<br></div><p></p></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200524&instance_id=18744&nl=the-morning®i_id=60903300&segment_id=29017&te=1&user_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293" target="_blank">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200524&instance_id=18744&nl=the-morning®i_id=60903300&segment_id=29017&te=1&user_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293</a> <br></p></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></p></div><blockquote style="border-top-color:currentcolor;border-top-style:none;border-top-width:medium;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-right-style:none;border-right-width:medium;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-width:medium;border-image-outset:0;border-image-repeat:stretch;border-image-slice:100%;border-image-source:none;border-image-width:1;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);border-left-style:solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding-top:0in;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5pt;"><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e.. I am sure I am being dumb. Somebody, help me to not be dumb.<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Thanks,<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Nick<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Nicholas Thompson<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">Clark University<br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p></div></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""></p><div>-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...<br></div><div>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></div><div>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br></div><div>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br></div><div>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br></div><div>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br></div><p></p></blockquote></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""><br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""> <br></p></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style="">--<br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal" style=""></p><div>Frank Wimberly<br></div><div>140 Calle Ojo Feliz<br></div><div>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br></div><div>505 670-9918<br></div><p></p></div></div></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"></p><div>-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...<br></div><div>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></div><div>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br></div><div>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br></div><div>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br></div><div>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br></div><p></p></blockquote></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"> <br></p></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal">--<br></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"></p><div>Frank Wimberly<br></div><div>140 Calle Ojo Feliz<br></div><div>Santa Fe, NM 87505<br></div><div>505 670-9918<br></div><p></p></div></div><div>-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...<br></div><div>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br></div><div>Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 <a href="http://bit.ly/virtualfriam">bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br></div><div>un/subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br></div><div>archives: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br></div><div>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> <br></div><div><br></div></blockquote><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div></body></html>