<div><br></div><div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 7:18 PM Steve Smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204)">
<div>
<p>My nephew in Tucson very likely had it... pretty harsh symptoms
for about a month (April into May) and still recovering his
stamina/breath... he called his doc who advised him to "stay home
and ride it out" but said he couldn't offer a test unless he was
admitted into the hospital. He may now be able to get an antigen
test if he insists. His sister is a freshly minted RN who cares
for dozens of COVID19 patients in a "nearly" full hospital in
Riverside CA... many of the emergency personnel in the county
she works with have contracted it (because their PPE isn't as good
as the hospital workers, and they have less control over their
contact with infected persons). I know about a half-dozen people
who *want to believe* they had it for one reason or another. I'm
doubting most if not all of them.<br>
</p>
<p>My $.02 analysis: The algebra of network transmission is
geometric but the awareness of other's condition is closer to
linear. Just because every actor is 7 degrees from Kevin Bacon
doesn't mean many of them know the path(s) between them. This
means if/when you do contract it, you probably won't see it
coming, especially with the higher rates of asymptomatic
infections being recognized?<br>
</p>
<p>From rt.live, two/thirds of the states have an Ro over 1.0, with
the error bars, one might argue that many are around 1.33, which
happens to also be the latest estimate for OK. Ro is the mean
number of people that a COVID19 infected person will infect
directly, given all of the factors, including social distancing,
use of PPE and disinfection, etc. in place for the person. If
the exponent is 1.33 then R1 is 1.78, and r6 (Kevin Bacon) is over
7. </p>
<p><Political Rant Alert><br>
</p>
<p>So when one "average" person in Tulsa contracts COVID19, in 7
"gestation periods" (average 2-4 days?) 7 people will have
contracted it for an R6 of 7. However, if that "average" person
goes to a Trump Rally on day1 and chooses not to wear a mask (even
if they do normally) then their Ro goes up significantly. If
they *also* shout "lock her up!" or "build the wall!" or "4 more
years!" "MAGAAAAaaa!" alternatively into the faces of the people
beside them (gotta pack every seat, can't look like a wuss!) and
over the shoulders of 3 or 4 in the row below them, then Ro jumps
by 4 or 6 and then if they keep shouting and embracing and
chest-bumping on the way out to the parking lot, you might add
another 5 or 10 or 20. But "no problem", that is just one night
of glory... maybe the 10 or 100 or 1000 people infected and
attending *only* "super-spread" to 10x or 20x (there were only
6.xK so that caps it!) ... but wait! Do you (and all those you
infect) go home and go back to Ro==1.33 behaviour, or are you all
jacked up on Trump Fever and decide you will liberate yourself
from that damned mask, and all that wussy "social distancing"?
So now your Ro is >1.33... conservatively those infected while
wearing their red hat too tight might slip by with an Ro of
2.0.... and since you are too proud to spend time with LIbtards
and Wussy Dems ro^=2 becomes an R6 of 64. Sounds like the
perfect formula for a super-spreading event. I'm guessing my
estimates here are overdone or we will *patently* see a
Trump-Spike from Tulsa (do we even know how many attendees were
from OK?).</p>
<p>I understand that <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/21/1004228/trumps-data-hungry-invasive-app-is-a-voter-surveillance-tool-of-extraordinary-scope/" target="_blank">Trump2020
app records when it encounters a bluetooth beacon</a>
(ostensibly only in Trump2020 yard signs?), maybe a white-hat
hacker can hijack it to do peer-to-peer contact tracing to
*demonstrate* this KevinBaconCovid19 effect? Or maybe the
TikTokkers have already hacked Trump2020App and are running around
making Brad Parscale entirely misunderstand his demographic...
nothing like a little false-confidence to FFfff up a campaign (eh
DNC 2016)?</p>
<p>Of course, I could probably tell a similar story about BLM
protestors (maybe even in Tulsa?) but oddly most of them seem to
be happy to wear masks and maintain some distance, even if they
are shouting "I can't Breathe!" and "Say their names!" or "No
Trump! No KKK! No fascist USA!" at the top of their lungs, They
might just be *doubling* their Ro to 2.7 and when they go home,
they may well return to Ro=1.33 or better? <br>
</p>
<p>Did anyone else watch the Series "Watchmen" last year (I'm
re-watching it right now)... Way too much premonition! Feeds the
conspiracy that COVID19 and BLM protests are all a "Hollywood
Elite" hoax. "Robert Redford, President for Life!"<br>
</p>
<p>- Steve<br>
</p>
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<div>On 6/28/20 4:08 PM,
<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a> wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I changed the name of this thread. Having
my name appear as a subject was beginning to make me feel like
I died, or something. <u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">N<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas Thompson<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark University<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(5,99,193)">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div style="border-style:solid none none;border-top-width:1pt;padding:3pt 0in 0in;border-top-color:rgb(225,225,225)">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam
<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Frank
Wimberly<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Sunday, June 28, 2020 3:48 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">By the way, I just had a Zoom reunion
with my fellow graduate students from Carnegie Mellon from
the years 1967-1973 more or less. I had forgotten that one
of them had Covid-19. Stu Card wrote a book with Allen
Newell on human-computer interaction in which they develop a
model of the human user. Stu has recovered despite having
an "underlying condition".<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Frank<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 3:12 PM Frank
Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" target="_blank">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border-style:none none none solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204)">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">They did not but I'm sure it's far
smaller than 1/3.<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 2:08 PM
Gary Schiltz <<a href="mailto:gary@naturesvisualarts.com" target="_blank">gary@naturesvisualarts.com</a>>
wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border-style:none none none solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204)">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Interesting. I didn't see the
show, but might watch it on their web site. Did they
mention what proportion of white Americans know
someone who has had Covid-19?<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 9:47 AM
Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com" target="_blank">wimberly3@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border-style:none none none solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204)">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">One third of all black
Americans know a person who has had Covid-19.
So says CBS Sunday Morning.<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12pt">Frank<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">---<br>
Frank C. Wimberly<br>
<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++%0D%0A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g">140 Calle Ojo Feliz, </a><br><a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++%0D%0A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g">
Santa Fe, NM 87505</a><br>
<br>
505 670-9918<br>
Santa Fe, NM<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Sun, Jun 28, 2020, 4:18
AM David Eric Smith <<a href="mailto:desmith@santafe.edu" target="_blank">desmith@santafe.edu</a>>
wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border-style:none none none solid;border-left-width:1pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204)">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I believe my brother has
had it.<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">When he is well enough
to move around and not infect anybody else
he intends to go get tested for
antibodies. Maybe another week.<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Said it was one of the
three worst illnesses of his life so far,
though it looks like mostly extreme
fatigue and lassitude; not evident trouble
breathing. And he is 7 years younger than
I am.<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Eric<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<u></u><u></u></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Jun 28, 2020,
at 1:23 AM, <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>>
<<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com" target="_blank">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">David, <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:nthompson@clarku.edu" target="_blank">nthompson@clarku.edu</a>
works just fine or <a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a>
. <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I am
really, REALLY sorry but I
don't think we should meet. I
just told my "pod" that I
think that, with the rising
cases in neighboring states,
Santa Fe has started to get
more dangerous again, and that
we should we should be even
more careful than we have
been. (Rural Western
Massachusetts got a lot of
cases from "vacationing" New
Yorkers in March.) With talk
of a vaccine by the beginning
of next year, it just seems
stupid to take any risks
whatsoever. <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">It's not
that long. In the meantime,
let's continue to interact
electronically. We could do
our own zoom session. You
will point out how "notional"
the hazard is, and I will have
to admit that I actually have
no first-hand experience with
the disease, what-so-ever. I
don't even know anybody,
personally, who has told me
that they <b><i>know anybody</i></b>
who has had the disease. It
is still, for me, a media
event. A cultural meme. Pray
God it remains that way. <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">So let's
plan to meet "on the other
side.". <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">You take
care!<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nicholas
Thompson<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Emeritus
Professor of Ethology and
Psychology<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clark
University<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com" target="_blank">ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</a><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,-pCBQAFqcrtIdWF_G2unIMdEIyxbk9ZKmcwsOxETxJjE11XZzzqAv0Ro6JftHecKItimIK0AxbipIn8IGm6WKzh4jdw9Ylo_3GMfBmVeWAG0Y-jh&typo=1" target="_blank">https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</a><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">-----Original
Message-----<br>
From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
On Behalf Of Prof David West<br>
Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2020
8:10 AM<br>
To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
Subject: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nick,<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Your
Earthlink email address (the
only other one I have)
bounced. I am in Santa Fe for
a couple of days, until July
2.<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">davew<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">- .... .
-..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ...
-..-. .... . .-. .<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">FRIAM
Applied Complexity Group
listserv<u></u><u></u></p>
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</blockquote></div></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>George Duncan</div><div>Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University<br><a href="http://georgeduncanart.com/" target="_blank">georgeduncanart.com</a></div><div>See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram</div>
<div>Land: (505) 983-6895 <br></div><div>Mobile: (505) 469-4671</div>
<div> <br>My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos.<br></div><div><br></div><div><h1 style="letter-spacing:-0.02em;margin:0px"><font size="2" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-weight:normal">"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion."</font></h1><div><span style="font-size:small;letter-spacing:-0.02em;line-height:1.125em"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. </font></span></div><table width="85%" style="color:rgb(93,86,81);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:18px;margin:auto;border-collapse:collapse!important"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center"><p style="margin-top:4px;margin-bottom:12px"><font size="2">"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.</font></p></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" style="font-size:13px;text-transform:uppercase"><p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:27px;color:rgb(146,146,146);text-align:center"><br></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>